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The random variables for each shot aren't independent
Using the basic way to calculate the probability of something (i.e. the odds of a coin being tails twice in a row is 25%, which you get from multiplying 1/2 X 1/2), let's see what the odds were (in a vacuum of course) of a high powered offense like the Warriors being held scoreless over that span. Just like multiplying the odds of coinflip, I'm multiplying the playoff shooting percentages of the players who took shots over that span (not counting Speights' meaningless heave as time ran out).
The odds (again, in a vacuum) of that happening are 1/1500.
I did the same for the Spurs Game 6 meltdown, and the odds of Miami coming back down from 5 with 28.2 seconds left were 1/400.
The Warriors indeed pulled off the greatest chokejob in NBA history.
The random variables for each shot aren't independent
Of course, that's why I made to sure to state this is just a vacuum analysis that doesn't consider context. For example, people have called Kawhi a choker for his missed freebie in game 6, but when you consider the cir stances of the situation, it was actually clutch as to even split those two.
Speaking of probabilities:
And that dip Suns fan and other parrot are still claiming 6 isbigger choke?
Absolutely.And that dip Suns fan and other parrot are still claiming 6 isbigger choke?
They were selling your on broadcast television.
But, aside from not winning the NBA le you got away with it. You were never punished. "State Fan" did not get away it & will continue to be punished.
That is why my calling has been imperative. I, me, I knew instinctively that something was rotten in Denmark in '13. I'd been there at the start. I'd been thru that withering storm in '84. '84 was your '13. You were never wakened and frog marched to the gallows at dawn. I was. I didn't know what was happening. Didn't know from apple butter. So, I got up and I went along with it, took my medicine, as it were. "Beat me, string me up, whip my ass. I deserve it." Then when salvation came a year later and I wheeled the rock out of the way, well, I didn't wheel out of the way, Magic wheeled it, but, you get the idea. It was wheeled and he led us out of the caves and into the light. You know what? Nobody blamed the Celtics in '85 like nobody blamed the Celtics in '87, or, blamed the Spurs in '13. But, mother er, I did and I will continue to beat this drum, until there are no more tomorrows. Blame ain't for God and kindergartners. It's for US too and I'm gonna spearhead that blame protocol. And you ain't stoppin' me.
Now,
Let us proceed...
You are talking in circles again.
You never really defined what "punishment" is.
If the Spurs weren't punished, it's because the result was expected, because most people expected the Heat to win, and win they did in 13. So really, there was nothing to "punish".
Besides, what did 84 Lakers, or 16 Warriors got punished for?
I didnt know there was a separate thread for this.
As usual, Monospulps "crunching" was wrong.
Its a 1.9% chance of happening which wasnt nearly as bad (statistically) as the Spurs choke of 0.006% chance.
Being a massive dumb again?
Starting at 4:13
Curry miss from 3: 3/5
Thompson miss from 15 feet (shot .313 from mid range in the playoffs): 3/4 (being obviously generous):
9/20
Iggy miss from 3: 3/5
Green miss from 3: 3/5
81/500
Iggy missed (blocked) layup: 1/4
Curry miss: 3/5
Curry miss: 3/5
729/50000
Curry miss: 3/5
2187/250,000=.87
You still win, right!
Nope.
When calculating probabilities, you have to consider every event that works against you. Guess what you forgot to consider? The fact Golden State could not grab one offensive rebound over that span (7 straight shots. Speights did grab an offensive board on Curry's 8th shot, but if I factored in Speights' miss, it would make GS's choke look even worse). Golden State's offensive rebounding percentage for the game was 15.2 percent, roughly 6/7. And then you have to factor in Kyrie's offensive rebound that essentially sealed the game.
Add it all up, and comes out to roughly 1/1500 or .066 percent.
I did re-crunch the Spurs situation and I was off on my first calculation. The new odds of Manu miss + Kawhi miss + Offensive board + James 3 + Offensive board + Allen 3 are about 1/1280.
So in any event, the Warriors still outchoked the Spurs from an in-a-vacuum odds perspective. And in any event, you still lose the debate to me, per in' per. You should be happy with 2nd place, though. You guys throw parades for it after all
Last edited by midnightpulp; 06-22-2016 at 09:09 PM.
Ooooohhh! Rekt!
Haha jk (good point though)
Last edited by Arcadian; 06-22-2016 at 10:54 PM.
Im not even going to bother to fact-check this even though you're ALWAYS incorrect in your data (hence the name monospulp), but I got some bad news for ya:Being a massive dumb again?
Starting at 4:13
Curry miss from 3: 3/5
Thompson miss from 15 feet (shot .313 from mid range in the playoffs): 3/4 (being obviously generous):
9/20
Iggy miss from 3: 3/5
Green miss from 3: 3/5
81/500
Iggy missed (blocked) layup: 1/4
Curry miss: 3/5
Curry miss: 3/5
729/50000
Curry miss: 3/5
2187/250,000=.87
You still win, right!
Nope.
When calculating probabilities, you have to consider every event that works against you. Guess what you forgot to consider? The fact Golden State could not grab one offensive rebound over that span (7 straight shots. Speights did grab an offensive board on Curry's 8th shot, but if I factored in Speights' miss, it would make GS's choke look even worse). Golden State's offensive rebounding percentage for the game was 15.2 percent, roughly 6/7. And then you have to factor in Kyrie's offensive rebound that essentially sealed the game.
Add it all up, and comes out to roughly 1/1500 or .066 percent.
I did re-crunch the Spurs situation and I was off on my first calculation. The new odds of Manu miss + Kawhi miss + Offensive board + James 3 + Offensive board + Allen 3 are about 1/1280.
So in any event, the Warriors still outchoked the Spurs from an in-a-vacuum odds perspective. And in any event, you still lose the debate to me, per in' per. You should be happy with 2nd place, though. You guys throw parades for it after all
The dude gave a percentage of 50/50 for an offensive rebound. If we give the same rebounds odds you gave, the percentage of a Spurs collapse drops to 0.0053440474815% which is far less than the .067% percent you "crunched".
Bummer dude.
Thats three now, isnt it (off the top of my head)? There was the Duncan "dominant games" challenge that you failed at, the "lost playoff series with home court advantage" argument that you just screwed up on (over and over) and now this.
The good news is its not your fault the Spurs are mathematically the biggest chokers of all time. The bad news is it is your fault for screwing yourself over in these debates.
Im not even going to bother to fact-check this even though you're ALWAYS incorrect in your data (hence the name monospulp), but I got some bad news for ya:
The dude gave a percentage of 50/50 for an offensive rebound. If we give the same rebounds odds you gave, the percentage of a Spurs collapse drops to 0.0053440474815% which is far less than the .067% percent you "crunched".
Bummer dude.
Thats three now, isnt it (off the top of my head)? There was the Duncan "dominant games" challenge that you failed at, the "lost playoff series with home court advantage" argument that you just screwed up on (over and over) and now this.
The good news is its not your fault the Spurs are mathematically the biggest chokers of all time. The bad news is it is your fault for screwing yourself over in these debates.Are you re ed?0.0053440474815%
If you're going to calculate the probability of something using numbers instead fractions, you have to move decimal point over.
Example: 1/4 x 1/4 = 1/16 or 6.25 percent.
Guess what happens when you convert the fractions into numbers with decimals and then multiply them: .25 x .25 = .0625. The person who's responsible for that picture was at least smart enough to do that, unlike yourself.
But his math is wrong. I have no idea why he multiplies the two made/miss shooting percentages.
Like I said, when calculating probabilities, you only multiply the events that work against you (ex. a Lebron James made 3 works against the Spurs, and it has a .375 chance of happening).
So: .27 (Manu miss) x .375 (James made 3) x .37 (Kawhi miss) x .41 (Ray Allen made 3) x .26 (Miami's offensive rebounding percentage) x .26 (both Miami o-boards) = 0.00103831065. Move the decimal in its right place, and you get .10 percent or 1/1000. So my fractional way actually wound up being too generous
You can apologize now.
Last edited by midnightpulp; 06-22-2016 at 10:53 PM.
And for fun, we'll do the Warriors meltdown using percentages.
Curry playoff 3 pct: .404 (chance of missing or against: .596) x 4
Klay playoff mid-range pct: .313 (chance against .687) X 1
Iggy playoff 3 pct: .385 (chance against .615) X 1
Iggy playoff layup pct: .709 (chance against .291) X 1
Draymond playoff 3 pct: .365 (chance against .635) X 1
GS's offensive rebounding pct: 15.2 (chance against .84.8) X 7 (instances where they couldn't grab an o-board)
GS's defensive rebounding pct: .780 (chance against .220) x 1 (Kyrie's big o-board to seal the game)
=
0.00068340358 or .068, 1/1470
Just like I said in the OP, 1/1500.
0.1977*0.234*0.23*0.25*0.14*0.14 = 0.0000534404748
You lose dude.
As if it couldnt get any worse, lets not forget Parker missed a shot at the end as well. If we give him even a 30% chance of making it the probability now drops to (drum roll please):
0.000037408332
Give up?
btw - I just double checked your math and youre wrong (or maybe you were fudging...dont know).
Its ~.001
I am officially done double checking your . You are now and forever monospulp.
Even the Cavs have a championship banner
Do you guys have any idea how many times Ive corrected Monospulp now?
I seriously dont even remember but its a lot.
Yeah. I dont care.Even the Cavs have a championship banner
Depression will do that to you.
You divide the occurrence of an outcome by total outcomes, i.e there's 6 possible outcomes when rolling a single die, so the odds of rolling any one number are 1/6 or 16.6 percent. If you want to know the odds of rolling a 6 twice in row you multiply .16 x .16.
In the case of a basketball event, there's two possible outcomes. Make or miss a shot, grab or don't grab a rebound. Since basketball players aren't dice and each have different odds of making a shot, we look at their percentages. Lebron James makes a 3 roughly 4 times out of every 10 ten shots. 4/10.
Again:
I'm not counting Parker's desperation shot. Was as meaningless as Speights' heave.So: .27 (Manu miss) x .375 (James made 3) x .37 (Kawhi miss) x .41 (Ray Allen made 3) x .26 (Miami's offensive rebounding percentage) x .26 (both Miami o-boards) = 0.00103831065. Move the decimal in its right place, and you get .10 percent or 1/1000.
And you're still too re ed to move your decimal points. Here, this entry level graphic that's presented at a 4th grade level should help:
But guess what, even factoring in Parker's desperation shot, assuming a 30 percent success rate (which is being generous given the nature of the shot), we get DRUMROLL PLEASE:
0.00072681745 or .072, 1/1390
Tired of losing like your Suns, or do you want to keep going?
No its not. Yours is (I checked...you really ed up).
I took Discrete mathematics in college. Trust me, he's right. Youre wrong.
Nope. My math is correct.
Show your work, Dumb .
When you win win win so many times at some point you are gonna run out of gas/luck like happened to Portland a couple seasons ago, funny thing is they just needed one stinky game...
Biggest chokejob ever? YES
Who gives a ? All you need is a 3rd grade education (which it seems you don't have) to calculate probabilities. No one on planet earth would multiply occurrences to come up with a probability. Want to know what his re ed "formula" looks like when you apply it to dice roll odds?
.834 x .166 = 0.138444 or 13.8 percent.
Tell me with a straight face that the odds of rolling any one number with a die are 1/7?
His massively dumb way (which was why you're using it) essentially adds another face to a die
Last edited by midnightpulp; 06-23-2016 at 12:56 AM.
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