Church of Trump

[Spurminator]

Guys, polls don't matter...

[rmt]

Guys, polls don't matter...

The polls might not be correct but my math is (no offense to you).

[boutons_deux]

The polls might not be correct but my math is (no offense to you).

math is the least of your problems. You, and others, supporting Trash is your hilarious problem.

[boutons_deux]

[hater]

Agree this is just another case of poll manipulation to control a society folks. Good news is this almost never works. Didn't work on the brexit vote.

It wont work this time.

[RandomGuy]

Facts:

1) Any poll which poses Trump v. Clinton without the 3rd party candidates is not as credible as those which provide Lib and Green alternatives since Lib/Green will be on the ballot in all 50 states

2) The polls which have both h2h and all 4 parties on the ballot trend towards Trump losing by 1-2 points less when all 4 are on the ballot. The 3rd party voters take away from both R&D, but slightly a bit more from D.

3) No single poll before Labor day is meaningful in and of itself. The trends are somewhat meaningful, but you can't conclude anything this far out

4) Given 1-3, Shillary is clearly ahead right now, has a clear path to the presidency through the electoral college, and it isn't really disputable considering Republican leaders are scrambling to find ways to salvage their asses from the writing on the wall that they see for themselves

If I had to predict RIGHT NOW, I'd say

1) Trump's ceiling is 39% and will get beat by 11 points with 3rd parties taking up another 11 points.
2) Dems take 8 senate seats
3) Repubs hold the house by 8-12 seats

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ex_cid=rrpromo

The post convention bump hit Trump pretty hard. 82% chance of clinton win at the moment.

[RandomGuy]

The WP/ABC poll didn't over-sample Dems by 43.4%. They over-sampled Dems by 43.4% - 11.5% (from the 2015 Gallup I picked up) = 31.9%. I used a January 11, 2016 Gallup poll with over 12k adults with "This elevated percentage of political independents leaves Democratic (29%) and Republican (26%) identification at or near recent low points, with the modest Democratic advantage roughly where it has been over the past five years." Meaning the difference between 29 and 26 is 3 (3 divided by 26 is 11.5) so for approximately the past 5 years there are about 11.5% more people identifying as Democrats than as Republicans. So for this WP/ABC, they over-sampled Dems by 31.9% which is quite significant.

Using your poll of polls and latest numbers, 35.8 - 28.7 = 7.1 7.1/28.7 = 24.7 43.4 - 24.7 = 18.7% Democrats over-sampled (which is still significant).

I was only clearing up the math for ducks and Reck. You chose to ignore my comment about it being too early to be obsessing about polls, insult my homeschooling (math) and bring my kids into this.

It is too early. We have weeks and weeks for Trump to keep saying morally bankrupt things and have each one of those hammered home.

“He’s not a war hero,” said Trump. “He was a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.”

Personally implying that a guy who was tortured for years isn't a war hero, pretty much disqualifies you from being a commander.

[RandomGuy]

Or maybe there is the fact that Trump is now being used as a propaganda tool:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...-propaganda-v/


I have said it before, and I will repeat:

You can't discredit the idea you are evil, by doing evil, and Trump actively advocates war crimes. Something else to consider when giving him command of our armed forces.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...ar-donald-tru/

[boutons_deux]

George W. Bush administration official announces support for Clinton over Trump

Lezlee Westine, a former aide to President George W. Bush, will support Hillary Clinton for president.

Westine, who served as the Bush administration's White House director of public liaison and deputy assistant to the president, is one of several Republican figures to publicly announce their support for Clinton in recent weeks.

“Our nation faces a unique set of challenges that require steady and experienced leadership," Westine said in a statement. "That is why today I am personally supporting Hillary Clinton.

"She has the expertise and commitment to American values to grow the economy, create jobs and protect America at home and abroad," she said.

She joins a growing list of conservatives in the business, foreign policy and political spheres who have come out in support of Clinton.

On Sunday, the political director in the Reagan administration — Frank Lavin — wrote in a commentary for CNN that he could not support Republican nominee Donald Trump and would vote for Clinton instead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...t-draw7&wpmm=1

Interesting, but their handful of votes for Clinton don't offset the 10Ms of assholes who support Trash NO MATTER WHAT!

[RandomGuy]

Agree this is just another case of poll manipulation to control a society folks.

No, actually it isn't.

Revealing statement though. Confirmation bias and appeals to ignorance fallacy in action.

[RandomGuy]

Ok, genius. I'll insult your homeschooling because you think it's inappropriate for teachers to mention the term "climate change" in chemistry class.

Which is weird, because climate change is changing the ph of the oceans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification

Seems like chemistry to me.

[RandomGuy]

The WP/ABC poll didn't over-sample Dems by 43.4%. They over-sampled Dems by 43.4% - 11.5% (from the 2015 Gallup I picked up) = 31.9%. I used a January 11, 2016 Gallup poll with over 12k adults with "This elevated percentage of political independents leaves Democratic (29%) and Republican (26%) identification at or near recent low points, with the modest Democratic advantage roughly where it has been over the past five years." Meaning the difference between 29 and 26 is 3 (3 divided by 26 is 11.5) so for approximately the past 5 years there are about 11.5% more people identifying as Democrats than as Republicans. So for this WP/ABC, they over-sampled Dems by 31.9% which is quite significant.

Using your poll of polls and latest numbers, 35.8 - 28.7 = 7.1 7.1/28.7 = 24.7 43.4 - 24.7 = 18.7% Democrats over-sampled (which is still significant).

I was only clearing up the math for ducks and Reck. You chose to ignore my comment about it being too early to be obsessing about polls, insult my homeschooling (math) and bring my kids into this.

People just don’t seem to report their past vote very accurately. Answers tend to wind up biased toward the winner; often, people who vote for the loser say they “can’t remember” or say they voted for someone else.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/up...blem.html?_r=0

Your calculation assumes the self-reporting is accurate. It isn't.

[RandomGuy]

math is the least of your problems. You, and others, supporting Trash is your hilarious problem.

"hilarious" isn't the word I would use.

Terrifying would be closer. Trump is the most singularly unqualified and unstable person to be President that I can remember.

[boutons_deux]

"hilarious" isn't the word I would use.

Terrifying would be closer. Trump is the most singularly unqualified and unstable person to be President that I can remember.

what's hilarious is that Trash's conned, lied-to supporters thinking that Trash GAF about them and their problems.

[ducks]

Clinton lies to everyone
takes her money from all countries that hate women

[boutons_deux]

TRUMP ECONOMIC PLAN CALLS FOR EVERY AMERICAN TO INHERIT MILLIONS FROM FATHER

DETROIT — At a speech in Detroit on Monday, the Republican Presidential nominee, Donald J. Trump, spelled out the details of his economic plan, which calls for every American to inherit millions of dollars from his or her father.

“There are people at my rallies, desperate people, desperate because they want jobs,” he told his luncheon audience at the Detroit Economic Club. “Once they inherit millions from their father, they will never want a job again.”

Using an anecdote to show how his economic plan would work, Trump explained, “A man with zero dollars who inherited forty million dollars from his father would become forty million dollars wealthier.”

“We are going to make America rich again,” he said.

Tearing into “the failed economic policies of the Obama Administration,” he argued that children in China are inheriting money from their fathers at a much higher rate than American children are.

“We don’t win at anything anymore,” he said. “We don’t win at inheriting.”

Trump’s plan for wealth creation drew strong praise from his team of economic advisers, including Ivanka, Eric, Tiffany, Barron, and Donald Trump, Jr.

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-economic-plan-calls-for-every-american-to-inherit-millions-from-father?mbid=nl_080816%20Borowitz%20Newsletter%20(1 )&CNDID=43758549&spMailingID=9321970&spUserID=MTQz NTk4MTA2MDYxS0&spJobID=980629916&spReportId=OTgwNj I5OTE2S0

[ducks]

another white link means not worth reading

[DMX7]

Mr. Trump is currently giving an major economic address. It's on CNN. I swear, is half the crowd protesters?

[DMX7]

another white link means not worth reading

Co-signed.

[hater]

I called there would be a major smear campaign from lib s, neocons and Wall Street/ MIC against Mr Trump.

I called this months ago. And once again I was right.

They are all going all in vs Mr Trump now. Too bad they wont be there when he tears ShillaHitler to shreds in the debates

[clambake]

can't believe some people care enough about this to make up words like "shillahitler"

[DMX7]

Mr. Trump just concluded his major economic address. It was a great speech!

[clambake]

Mr. Trump just concluded his major economic address. It was a great speech!

a short summary please.

oh, but you can't include words like america great, or great again.

[boutons_deux]

Donald Trump, Hoping to Change Subjects, Says He Will Bring Prosperity


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/us...my-speech.html

... iow, Trash is, as always, lying to his conned supporters. The power to spend money is in the REPUG House, not the White House.

The REPUG House is strict obstructionism, strict "austerian", so no money for the Real Economy, nor for the 99%, like $Ts needed for infrastructure.

[Reck]

Mr. Trump just concluded his major economic address. It was a great speech!

Too bad it was all bull .

cutting tax from 35 to 15.

Not even his momma believes that.