David Robinson: Warriors' window will 'end relatively quickly

[Sean Cagney]

....

That's right, the Admiral didn't accomplish anything after the '95 WCF against Houston.

2 NBA Championships
1 Olympic Gold
4 All-Star Berths
4 All-NBA defensive team selections
3 All-NBA team selections
HOF Induction

Obviously he is another LA fan in here with the Spurs by his team name pretending he is a fan, bad attempt at that as far as Lefty goes. I was going to put what you put, two rings later as well like you said says otherwise. He was fine after the 95 series and fell off later do to the bad back etc. Dude speaks out of his ass most of the time I found out.

[GSH]

No, they won't.


This isn't the NFL. In the NBA you overpay to keep your own players and stay over the soft cap/tax. Of course, you only get the annual MLE and vet min contracts outside of that, but that isn't a huge problem when you've got Durant, Curry, Green, Thompson, Iguodala, Livingston, Pachulia and others who you can re-sign for as much as you want.

The Blazers went through this back during/around the Brandon Roy time. It didn't help that Greg Oden was actually 35 and broken down when they drafted him, or that Roy's knee blew out. But the Blazers were already up against the wall trying to afford all the young talent they had. It was a foregone conclusion that they weren't going to be able to keep all the young talent they had.

OKC had the same problem. They (Seattle) traded all their top players when they got Durant, and raked in a bunch of draft picks. They did well with the picks, and had a huge amount of talent on one team. Just about the time they got them experienced playing with each other, the team started having to worry about how they were going to pay them all. You can argue about why they lost Harden, but the fact is they couldn't keep him.

If nothing else, if they keep having success, there are going to be a lot of important role players who will see a chance to cash in elsewhere. They can't afford to pay everyone the maximum, and there aren't enough minutes to go around on a stacked team. Curry, Klay, and Durant will get all the glory, and Draymond will feel disrespected. Or Durant will understand that it will never be "his" team. Or both. The old ring-chasers won't be able to get minutes and move on to get one more big paycheck, or retire. Maybe GS will find some magic to hold them all together, but chances are DRob is right.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

The Blazers went through this back during/around the Brandon Roy time. It didn't help that Greg Oden was actually 35 and broken down when they drafted him, or that Roy's knee blew out. But the Blazers were already up against the wall trying to afford all the young talent they had. It was a foregone conclusion that they weren't going to be able to keep all the young talent they had.

OKC had the same problem. They (Seattle) traded all their top players when they got Durant, and raked in a bunch of draft picks. They did well with the picks, and had a huge amount of talent on one team. Just about the time they got them experienced playing with each other, the team started having to worry about how they were going to pay them all. You can argue about why they lost Harden, but the fact is they couldn't keep him.

If nothing else, if they keep having success, there are going to be a lot of important role players who will see a chance to cash in elsewhere. They can't afford to pay everyone the maximum, and there aren't enough minutes to go around on a stacked team. Curry, Klay, and Durant will get all the glory, and Draymond will feel disrespected. Or Durant will understand that it will never be "his" team. Or both. The old ring-chasers won't be able to get minutes and move on to get one more big paycheck, or retire. Maybe GS will find some magic to hold them all together, but chances are DRob is right.

GSW is one of the richest teams in the league, they're not OKC. Big market, price-inelastic fans that will pack the arena no matter what. They can afford the luxury tax and the repeater luxury tax.

[GSH]

GSW is one of the richest teams in the league, they're not OKC. Big market, price-inelastic fans that will pack the arena no matter what. They can afford the luxury tax and the repeater luxury tax.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. The repeater lux tax is pretty damned punitive, and it gets worse if they keep repeating. It's designed to make sure that nobody can afford to pay it. Marginal players start costing a load of money when added to the top of the payroll. Marginal players who you have to overpay? They will cost as much as other teams will be paying for superstars. But I know from experience that nothing ever changes your mind about anything.

But I already said - money isn't the only thing. There are only so many minutes and possessions to go around, and balancing all those huge egos will be just as difficult. I doubt that Harden would have stayed in OKC for any amount of money. I can see Draymond, for one, doing the same thing.

[james evans]

kerr's impact can't be overstated. before they had marc jackson. kerr was one win away from back to back championships. has any coach ever done that in their 1st & 2nd season? highly doubt it.

the same Kerr that sat out for damn near half the season and Luke Walton had the best start in NBA history? That Kerr or another one? I'm confused

[james evans]

Yes. It's a good point to bring up diminishing returns, and then the hits that their defense took without Bogut. It was costly for them to lose Bogut in the finals in fact. The big guy wasn't healthy all season, but when he is healthy he makes a huge difference for them. They doubled down on what they were already good at and became weaker on what they were weak at. They will be huge in the RS when teams don't play real defense (save a few teams that make defense their iden y and play it all season), but in the playoffs it's another matter. They will be interesting but could underachieve.

My theory is this, and I keep saying every time someone brings up the Warriors. They were the best offensive team in the league last season. Everything was clicking. They were also one of the top defensive teams as well. So in the off season, they gut their defense, get rid of all the hard workers and add another top offensive player to an offense that they were already #1. Does anyone understand how much of a factor this will be without Bogut in the middle changing shots and setting illegal screens, no barnes/ezeili/speights doing the dirty work and they add not 1 but 2 horrific defenders in West and Durant? Am I the only one here that understands basketball enough to see how much of a problem this is for Golden State? Basketball isn't, "ok, I'm adding this guy to the team so we're just gonna add his 20+ shots to the offense and be even more powerful). . doesn't work like that. Never has and never will. If that's the case, the Blazers in 2000 would have been champs.

[ElNono]

Famous last words, tbh

[UNT Eagles 2016]

We'll just have to agree to disagree. The repeater lux tax is pretty damned punitive, and it gets worse if they keep repeating. It's designed to make sure that nobody can afford to pay it. Marginal players start costing a load of money when added to the top of the payroll. Marginal players who you have to overpay? They will cost as much as other teams will be paying for superstars. But I know from experience that nothing ever changes your mind about anything.

But I already said - money isn't the only thing. There are only so many minutes and possessions to go around, and balancing all those huge egos will be just as difficult. I doubt that Harden would have stayed in OKC for any amount of money. I can see Draymond, for one, doing the same thing.

The egos are the main worry.

Money wise though, as an owner, you've got to take the "YOLO" at ude, particularly if you're a multi-billionaire. It's worth it to overpay and take corporate losses every year if you're fielding a team that wins the championship, say, 8 years in a 15 year generation span, making the Finals in say, 4 of the other 7 years. Happiness, popularity and the sheer joy of winning... the niceties of life... are sometimes more important than strict money.


I'd rather make love to a beautiful woman every day who loves me, and not be so well-off, but as long as I have good air conditioning, a car, healthy and substantive food, and protection from the elements (and both my health and her health intact) and comprehensive medical insurance, it's much better than, say, being a wealthy 80 year old who's only ever had sex with ugly escorts and gold diggers.

[GSH]

The egos are the main worry.

Money wise though, as an owner, you've got to take the "YOLO" at ude, particularly if you're a multi-billionaire. It's worth it to overpay and take corporate losses every year if you're fielding a team that wins the championship, say, 8 years in a 15 year generation span, making the Finals in say, 4 of the other 7 years. Happiness, popularity and the sheer joy of winning... the niceties of life... are sometimes more important than strict money.

A repeat offender could wind up paying $35 Million for a $6 Million player.

I'd rather make love to a beautiful woman every day who loves me, and not be so well-off, but as long as I have good air conditioning, a car, healthy and substantive food, and protection from the elements (and both my health and her health intact) and comprehensive medical insurance, it's much better than, say, being a wealthy 80 year old who's only ever had sex with ugly escorts and gold diggers.

I should never underestimate your ability to take the conversation someplace weird.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

A repeat offender could wind up paying $35 Million for a $6 Million player.

So you have $15 Billion in the bank. You pay $30 million over the luxxo tax and end up having to pay $180 million, let's say for 15 years. That's about $2.7 billion in taxes, still chump change for these high rollers. Even if he had zero extra revenue to make up for the tax, does that mean to a 60+ year old man who's not going to live nearly that long to spend a small fraction of the other $12.3 billion?

[tbdog]

It is good that the Spurs went big. I think the big game will be back as there is no point, and I have said this since the Durant beta move, but there is no point going small against the Dubs. I think most teams will just have to stay big and bang the boards, dominate the paint etc.

[cd98]

We have seen super teams fail before. Malone and Payton joining prime Kobe and Shaq and of course Dwight and Nash joining Gasol and Kobe, Pippen and Barkley joining Hakeem and Drexler etc. They all talking about not needing their shots now, but we will see. Spurs need no to worry about matchups and just play their game.

Those "super teams" were counting on players in the twilight of their careers to still be stars. This GS team has stars in their prime or coming into their prime. They will be really good for years to come. The closest comparison is Miami, a team that was dominant and only fell apart bc of Bosh's heart condition and LeBron's anger at the owner's penny pinching.

[spursreport]

Those "super teams" were counting on players in the twilight of their careers to still be stars. This GS team has stars in their prime or coming into their prime. They will be really good for years to come. The closest comparison is Miami, a team that was dominant and only fell apart bc of Bosh's heart condition and LeBron's anger at the owner's penny pinching.

The Warriors are relying on Durant to be the alpha. Durant is the Peyton Manning of the NBA. Puts up nice stats but chokes in high pressure playoff moments unless someone bails him out. The only issue is Curry is a pg. Pg led teams don't win les. They won't get lucky again where Iggy leads them to a ring this time around. And kill yourself for that final sentence in your post. The Heat were rolling in the 2014 playoffs until running into the Spurs.

[cd98]

The Warriors are relying on Durant to be the alpha. Durant is the Peyton Manning of the NBA. Puts up nice stats but chokes in high pressure playoff moments unless someone bails him out. The only issue is Curry is a pg. Pg led teams don't win les. They won't get lucky again where Iggy leads them to a ring this time around. And kill yourself for that final sentence in your post. The Heat were rolling in the 2014 playoffs until running into the Spurs.

People said LeBron wasn't Alpha and dogged his move to Miami. But he soon became very alpha. I'd hold off on calling Durant a beta just yet. And that 2014 Miami team had no bench. This year, GSW will have a good bench. We'll see what they do year to year, but if the owner of GSW is committed to paying, GSW will be very good for the foreseeable future.

[cjw]

No, they won't.


This isn't the NFL. In the NBA you overpay to keep your own players and stay over the soft cap/tax. Of course, you only get the annual MLE and vet min contracts outside of that, but that isn't a huge problem when you've got Durant, Curry, Green, Thompson, Iguodala, Livingston, Pachulia and others who you can re-sign for as much as you want.

Right, except for the fact that they won't have Durant's bird rights when he inevitably opts out for the supermax contract (35% of huge cap) after this season. They can probably keep Iguodala and the rest of the core, but the rest of the roster gets gutted.

Klay + Draymond + dead money due to Jason Thompson = $35.2 million
Durant's cap hold will be $31.8 million (120% of this year's salary, which will be below his max)
Iguodala's cap hold will be $16.7 million
Curry's cap hold will be $16.4 million

Add on seven minimum roster charges (assumes they move on from guys like McCaw, Damian Jones) and you're at $104.1 million. McCaw would cost an extra $340k and Jones an extra $660k, so say $1.0 million between them. That puts you them at $105.1 million.

If the cap is $107 million, they'll squeak under it. If $102 million, they'll likely have to sacrifice Iggy. I think there's a very good chance they extend Iggy this season, which can be done now that three years have passed since the original contract. If they can bring his cap number closer to $10 million, they have breathing room.

Livingston is as good as gone unless he comes back with an exception. Following this offseason, they're going to have about $97 to $100 million locked up in their main four guys, so minimum players and exceptions for the foreseeable future without any huge bumps expected in the cap.

[DeRozan m8]

Kerr is an overrated vulture who's been given everything in his career and basically earned none of it.

Basically James Jones V2

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Right, except for the fact that they won't have Durant's bird rights when he inevitably opts out for the supermax contract (35% of huge cap) after this season. They can probably keep Iguodala and the rest of the core, but the rest of the roster gets gutted.

Klay + Draymond + dead money due to Jason Thompson = $35.2 million
Durant's cap hold will be $31.8 million (120% of this year's salary, which will be below his max)
Iguodala's cap hold will be $16.7 million
Curry's cap hold will be $16.4 million

Add on seven minimum roster charges (assumes they move on from guys like McCaw, Damian Jones) and you're at $104.1 million. McCaw would cost an extra $340k and Jones an extra $660k, so say $1.0 million between them. That puts you them at $105.1 million.

If the cap is $107 million, they'll squeak under it. If $102 million, they'll likely have to sacrifice Iggy. I think there's a very good chance they extend Iggy this season, which can be done now that three years have passed since the original contract. If they can bring his cap number closer to $10 million, they have breathing room.

Livingston is as good as gone unless he comes back with an exception. Following this offseason, they're going to have about $97 to $100 million locked up in their main four guys, so minimum players and exceptions for the foreseeable future without any huge bumps expected in the cap.

Livingston seems like the perfect candidate for the RE/MLE. 7th-8th man on the roster, knows his role, unselfish but important to the team. Knows he'd be worse in any other system (maybe Spurs an exception) and loyal to the Warriors for resurrecting his career which was as good as dead after he tore his leg in half.


Iggy will be extended. So they can keep their top 8 guys and have ring chasers for the vet min and low-level guys for the rest of their team, still better than anything Miami ever had.

[james evans]

My theory is this, and I keep saying every time someone brings up the Warriors. They were the best offensive team in the league last season. Everything was clicking. They were also one of the top defensive teams as well. So in the off season, they gut their defense, get rid of all the hard workers and add another top offensive player to an offense that they were already #1. Does anyone understand how much of a factor this will be without Bogut in the middle changing shots and setting illegal screens, no barnes/ezeili/speights doing the dirty work and they add not 1 but 2 horrific defenders in West and Durant? Am I the only one here that understands basketball enough to see how much of a problem this is for Golden State? Basketball isn't, "ok, I'm adding this guy to the team so we're just gonna add his 20+ shots to the offense and be even more powerful). . doesn't work like that. Never has and never will. If that's the case, the Blazers in 2000 would have been champs.

I'm just gonna leave this here

[SAGirl]

good points evans, earlier in the thread I brought up a similar point. It showed last night. We of little faith lol

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

Kerr is an overrated vulture who's been given everything in his career and basically earned none of it.

Basically James Jones V2

You're talking about the best 3pt % shooter ever in the NBA. And have you forgotten game 6 in Dallas in '03. Game 6 Bulls/Jazz. Kerr is deserving of everything as a player. But as a coach, he was gifted a team built by Jerry West and Mark Jackson.