Jon is fine for the price he's paid (not a great steal like some keep calling him, but fine nonetheless), but he's currently not worth re-signing at any price. He'll have to improve substantially. So having Hanga on a similar deal to the one Simmons signed last year would be idea, especially since he's better than Simmons.
There's certainly a chance that Simms doesn't improve at all this summer but I don't think they cut him this early. He reminds me of Austin Daye, not in game but in being a project player of about the same age and it being a risky proposition that guys that old would improve a lot. Anyways, Daye still made it out of camp when in reality Jamychal Green was a better prospect and should have taken that spot. Thus, I don't expect the Spurs to cut Simmons this early, although it wouldn't surprise me if they do it midseason bc he's sucking. They are going to give him a chance though IMO. Garino can always be picked up from the dleague if they need to, it's not like he's lost forever as a prospect.
I also think it's too soon to indeed know what Murray is, but after seeing Pop coerce PG duties out of a series of guards that were clearly not PG I expect him to be trained to play both the 1 and the 2. It doesn't matter this season bc he has so much to work on that picking up a true PG is probably a necessity at this point (Tony and Manu being that old and injury prone).
I don't think Simmons is going to be cut in camp. He's definitely the most vulnerable of the guaranteed contracts, but I think he makes it. But I don't think he's a Spur in 2017-2018. It's just not worth it to have a fourth wing at his price tag. Too many other needs. A guy like Hanga can step in and play a good role for the min while Murray or some two-guard who's a legit scorer will get most of the minutes behind Green. It's not too different than Boban, but Marjanovic had significantly more value.
In the NFL, they have an 80/20 rule. If a replacement player can give you 80 percent at 20 percent of the price, then you should almost always go with that. I think it's very likely that Jonathon fits that situation.
Agreed with your take on J.Simms unlikely to be resigned. Murray will also make J.Simms strengths' repe ive. He doesn't make sense past this season.
But for this season, I want him to do well bc there are a lot of raw rookies as alternatives right now who have a steep learning curve. Manu is also 39 and what I missed in my Austin Daye analogy was that he was between 13-15 on most nights (even Bonner was ahead of him, and when when Kawhi hurt his hand Anderson leapfrogged Daye in the rotation. That was perhaps the first real sign he was on his way out).
Meanwhile Simmons is probably looking to play and needed to play much more. He might be 8-11 behind a 39 year old guard who will need rest and possibly get an injury or nag somewhere. Already played around 800 minutes as a rook give or take. Spurs will need minutes from him this season there's no other way around it and it won't be,a good thing if he regresses and can't help. I am really hoping he can help. He'll earn himself a contract like Gary Neal so he should be motivated regardless. A good postseason showing helps everyone get a contract.
Edit: have him as early as 8 if there are injuries rest games to Manu, etc.
Last edited by SAGirl; 09-15-2016 at 12:58 PM.
Yeah. And it's not just Manu or the wings missing games that affects him. If any of the bigs sits, Anderson is probably sliding to the four with Simmons as the top candidate to get the nod at the vacated SF spot.
Agreed. I also dont like any of the Lee lineups. I hope he we plays well but he's not my cup of tea.
I was more originally responding to Kaji. Much as Garino could be nice (and he's a fan) he'd still be dleague bound as a rookie. It's rare the rookie who can help right away in a good team fresh out of college. Guys who do that tend to be so immensely talented as to be lottery picks or a rare snubbed guy who fell out for whatever reason (injury history, character whatever). It's simply not a good idea to hope J.Simms flunks the NBA and drops out of the team right this second.
Going back to my Austin Daye analogy, I guess if we see Murray leapfrog J.Simms midseason we would know what's going on. Probably quality of play having being poor would give us a warning too. The J.Simms story could go any number of ways. I am hoping he does well. He's a nice character guy, father to 4 very young girls (wouldn't surprise me if the girls were the reason he never played overseas) and has overcome a lot. Certainly has as good of a backstory as any marginal player to root for. He could get himself that Gary Neal deal for sure and be set. Has to work hard for it though. Compe ion should only make him better.
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Google docs has the scouting report on him the end summary:
Pro Outlook
Can be a nice 3rd PG for insurance purposes this season
Can become a backup PG once Parker retires - will be 27 during season
Will be able to run PNR, shoot, pass plus be a helpful team defender
Solid role player - can lead an efficient offense and have a net positive impact on team
Murray will be the back up next year.
Lappro or Forbes will be the 3rd PG ( Forbes isnt a true play maker, but either is Patty).
Pattys market value will be 9-11 mil per this summer. Hard to imagine Spurs paying Mills for 15-18 minute role if they have Murray, capable for 15 minute role, getting payed 1/10th of that salary. I know people have been saying Murray can play the SG, but his value on both ends is at PG because of his size. Spurs will and shld keep and develop him strictly at PG. Sure he may play SG down the road in stints if other teams play small, but if opposing lineups stay true, Murrays' value optimizes at the PG position.
Also, it makes sense that Spurs brought in Arci, Forbes, Lappro now as Spurs are always ahead of the curve and preparing for the near future. They can move forward with one of them now, and the other two in Austin and prepare them for next yr when theyll need cheap quality piece at PG to add to roster.
Theyll bring over Hanga next yr as well to be that cheap quality piece at back up SG.
Last edited by MaNu4Tres; 10-01-2016 at 08:50 AM.
Murray is a post-lottery pick rookie. The chances of him making it in the NBA as a fringe first round player are actually pretty small. People need to stop pumping him up to be a great one.
Boban was undrafted.
Its hilarious youre saying this about a first round pick who played well in Summer League as a 19 year old but not saying this about guys 3-7 yrs older than him who went undrafted.
Yep, and he was unlikely to make it in the league. Few do.
Lappy is a lot more proven than Murray is.
You have some good points. The entire thing with Mills being re-signed is obviously unknown. I think Spurs want him back, but they will have to look hard at the cost, together with his performance this season, and the rest of the personnel they project for next season and plans for Tony.
I am not ready to be all #Nostradamus about it, because it's unknown how Murray's development is looking as well, but if Lapro looks serviceable he's a good pickup for this season, regardless of what happens with everyone else. The memory of Ray getting cut bc he wasn't developing his playmaking quickly enough is still fresh in my mind and Murray is very young and raw in PG skills specially. With the very young draftees all I have heard from all of them is that it's a process (Cojo, Anderson and Murray stating this while clearly in developing stages). Spurs are more realistic than the average Joe fan like us and like to bring very young draft picks along with a development schedule that is realistic.
So although Murray is the higher upside/potential guy, Spurs need someone who is steadier and can execute the offense if needed this season, even if it's a lower ceiling player, but who could be more reliable right away and if Murray beats him out, it's a good sign for the youngster, not a bad thing.
Murray has natural talent and instincts, but I am not going to take the bet that he figures it out in the first season in the NBA. Lap has been playing for a much longer time and in more pressure packed situations, so if the Spurs are short a PG, I expect Lap to fill the vacancy. I don't think Arci will be ready and Forbes isn't a point guard.
The other alternative is more radical, have Anderson do point guard duties and just load up with more defensive talent like Garino.
Remember, Spurs on have one slot open for Garino, Forbes, Arci or Lappy.
parker/mills/murray
green/ginobili/simmons
leonard/anderson/bertans
aldridge/lee/LJC
pau/dedmon
I would love to see Anderson as the PG. At least Pop publicly told the press he can play the point, there is no doubt. He did at times last season but it was mostly during garbage time. The thing is, they really need him to play as a forward bc they don't have much depth there. I almost feel like he can really play the point and will do it when Manu is resting a game here or there, but when guys are healthy and well, they need him to play in the frontcourt, so that is where we will see him most.
Like you, I think Murray is simply not going to be ready. Lappy as you call him, is my pick to come out of camp, but we will see them in preseason and see how others look. I agree with you Arci is another rookie without seasoning, though he is a solid player not prone to mistakes, and Forbes is indeed a shooter/scorer. He's no point guard, and not enough of a ball mover, in fact. If the ball gets to him, it's going up in a shot, that is what he does.
I could be wrong, but I think there's a 0% chance that Pop goes into the season with Murray as his de-facto backup PG on nights when Tony rests. That means this guy only has to beat out Archie and Forbes for this spot.
That is unless Pop sees what I do, which is that Tony and Patty will simply get run off the floor against the Warriors this year for lack of size. You need Kawhi to guard KD and Danny to guard Curry, and you need whoever ends up on Thompson to be able to guard both in cross matches. Neither Tony nor Patty can switch off on Klay onto Durant or Green. You will need either Manu (what I've always said but he's pretty old this year) Simmons or Anderson to play the other wing spot. Anderson makes the most sense if he proves to be able to run the offense. Pop might just use one of them like a 3rd PG this year.
He sucks
This guy isn't even making the team for s sake.
Pop has thrown a few new guys into the fire in the last couple of years. Murray won't be the de-facto anything to start the season - duh - but there will be plenty of nights he gets plenty of minutes and even starts games. Book it.
If Murray shows he can defend adequately, I think he'll make it as the third PG and be active any time ANY of the top-four guards are to miss time. While I still like the idea of a throw-away PG to that Murray isn't glued to the bench instead of starting for the Toros, it at least opens up the possibility for another position.
If Murray isn't ready to contribute, it will be Laprovitolla (or Arcidiacono) active and on the roster.
Murray is nowhere near close to ready.
They need to Send him to Austin and find a suitbale defensive Guard that can shoot.
There will never be another Manu... Garino may become a cheaper Nocioni though... I think Lapprovitola is a great player but there are some odds to overcome for him to become an NBA starter talent like Godnobiili
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