Church of Trump

[Winehole23]

GOP racing for the exit:

As of 2:30 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, 17 Trump-supporting GOP officials had rescinded their support; and 19 called on him to quit the race altogether, according to our count.

The number of GOP officials who are holding out from voting for Trump has increased from 45 to 62. The number of GOP officials who have plainly stated that they will not vote for him — as opposed to staying uncommitted on the matter — has jumped from 17 to 41.


Strikingly, 84 percent of male governors, senators and representatives are supporting Trump, versus only 55 percent of women. And 32 percent of women officials have stated that they are not supporting Trump (as opposed to just voicing ambivalence), versus just 10 percent of men.


But let’s take a closer look at who has shifted their position (so far).


Of the 17 Republicans who have withdrawn their support for Trump, three are from Utah: Gov. Gary Herbert, Rep. Jason Chaffetz and Rep. Chris Stewart. (Stewart once compared Trump to Benito Mussolini before announcing he would vote him anyway.)
Six U.S. senators have rescinded their support:¹ S ey Moore Capito of West Virginia, Deb Fischer of Nebraska, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Mike Crapo of Idaho, John Thune of South Dakota and Dan Sullivan of Alaska. So have Alabama Reps. Martha Roby and Bradley Byrne, Nevada Reps. Joe Heck and Cresent Hardy, as well as Rep. Ann Wagner of Missouri, Rep. Rodney Davis of Illinois and Rep. Scott Garrett of New Jersey. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Rep. Mia Love of Utah, who had remained uncommitted until now, also announced that they would not vote Trump. South Dakota Gov. Dennis Daugaard also called on Trump to leave the race.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ump-in-droves/

[Winehole23]

well behind on the ground:

The scarceness of Trump’s offices in several of his must-win states, and their unclear focus on his candidacy, cast real doubts on the Republican nominee’s ability to get out the vote. Clinton’s edge in battleground states will allow her campaign to focus on getting her voters to the polls, target those on the fence and find the Democrats in deep-red counties. If Trump’s chances of winning depend upon disaffected rural voters and previously unregistered Republicans, as some have suggested, those voters may need to mobilize and persuade themselves: The campaign simply does not have the organizational scope to reach them.


Clinton’s field offices were also much simpler to find online. Just this week, Trump’s campaign introduced a “States” section on its site with lists of offices — for only six states.³ Before that, it was very difficult to locate Trump offices: We were determined to find them and spent many hours looking. How many would-be Trump volunteers just gave up? Clinton’s site is much more straightforward, directing people to their nearest office with a simple ZIP-code entry tool. Field offices are only as effective as the volunteers they can attract, and supporters need to know where they are — though, too often, they are nowhere to be found in the places Trump will need them the most.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...field-offices/

[Michael Jordan.]

[Michael Jordan.]

Pence Tells Donors He Is Fully Committed to Trump

Comments come as Republicans break away from the GOP nominee


http://www.wsj.com/articles/pence-te...ump-1475984639

Pence. Loser destroying his own career.

[Michael Jordan.]

meltdown incoming

[Michael Jordan.]

[Michael Jordan.]

In one 2005 recording, Trump discusses his time as the owner of the Miss Universe pageant. Asked whether he had ever had sex with a contestant, Trump at first said he would “never comment on things like that.” Later, when Stern asked whether he would turn down a Miss Universe candidate asking to have sex with him, Trump said, “I don’t want to hurt their feelings.”
Trump later went on to admit that “it could be a conflict of interest,” but that “what you could say is that, as the owner of the pageant, it’s your obligation to do that.”
Trump added that sometimes, because he was the owner, he would go backstage while contestants were naked or getting dressed.
“I’m allowed to go in, because I’m the owner of the pageant, and therefore I’m inspecting it,” he said.

omg

[Michael Jordan.]

[Winehole23]

Hes a p i m pnimo

we should all be very afraid of transsexuals in bathrooms, but Trump groping women nonconsensually is commendable.

[ducks]

7 in 10 have less then 1000 in savings
but the economy is great just ask hillary

[ducks]

trump should get a pass he was a democrat then

oh and in new poll most want him to stay in

[Winehole23]

The insta-consensus among commentators is that somehow this event is a cause of Trump’s electoral doom. I think the logic is backwards – to me, the growing obviousness of his doom created an environment for this story to blow up. The genuinely new development is the impact for downticket – in both the Senate and the House.


In one common sentiment, catching Trump on tape bragging about groping women without consent is somehow a last straw that has caused supporters to desert him, starting off with GOP Reps. Jason Chaffetz (district Partisan Voting Index R+25%), Barbara Comstock (R+2%), and Martha Roby (R+17%), and Utah governors Gary Herbert (current) and Jon Huntsman (former). Here is Taniel’s running tally of GOP reactions. Some PEC readers think this is a black swan – an unexpected anomaly that moves everything.


However, the idea that the recording comes as an exogenous surprise does not make sense. Trump’s record of misogynistic comments is abundant, and his unfiltered comments are part of his core appeal.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/1...r-is-the-swan/

[ducks]

Mega-Donors Mercers 'Steadfastly Behind' Trump
Conservative megadonors and Donald Trump supporters Rebekah and Robert Mercer say they are "steadfastly behind" the GOP candidate amid a furor over a leaked 2005 tape of his sexually aggressive comments about women.

The Mercers, who have a reputation for bucking the Republican establishment, said in a statement they were "completely indifferent to Mr. Trump's locker room braggadocio."

Drawing a sharp line between Trump's 11-year-old remarks, and Hillary Clinton's policy positions and response to women who have accused her husband, former President Bill Clinton, of sexual wrongdoing, the Mercers declared "America is finally fed up and disgusted with its political elite."


"Trump is channeling this disgust and those among the political elite who quake before the boom-box of media blather do not appreciate the apocalyptic choice that America faces on November 8th," they said.

Here is their statement in full:

"If Mr. Trump had told Billy Bush, whoever that is, earlier this year that he was for open borders, open trade, and executive actions in pursuit of gun control, we would certainly be rethinking our support for him.

If he had admitted to Mr. Bush that he had profited privately by allowing the sale to Russia of 20 percent of U.S. uranium deposits or that he had amassed his personal fortune not by hard work in the private sector but by selling favors to foreigners on the American taxpayers' dime, we would certainly be rethinking our support for him.


"If he had argued that he needed both a public and a private position on issues facing the American public, we would certainly be rethinking our support for him.

"And finally if Trump had serially terrorized and silenced the victims of violent sexual assault whom he feared could damage his political career, we would most definitely be rethinking our support for him.


"Donald Trump's uncensored comments, both old and new, have been echoed and dissected in the media repeatedly in an effort to kindle among his supporters a conflagration of outrage commensurate with the media's own faux outrage. Can anyone really be surprised that Mr. Trump could have said to Mr. Bush such things as he has already admitted saying? No. We are completely indifferent to Mr. Trump's locker room braggadocio.

"The same media that resolutely looked away when the most powerful man in the world, a sitting U.S. president with multiple violent sexual assaults to his credit, snared an impressionable young intern in his web and ruined her life, now expects us to gasp with revulsion at Mr. Trump's irreverent comments.


"America is finally fed up and disgusted with its political elite. Trump is channeling this disgust and those among the political elite who quake before the boom-box of media blather do not appreciate the apocalyptic choice that America faces on November 8th. We have a country to save and there is only one person who can save it.

"We, and Americans across the country and around the world, stand steadfastly behind Donald J. Trump."

[Winehole23]

I would argue that this weekend’s public blowback is triggered by a growing realization of what will happen on November 8th. After the first debate, it became obvious that Trump was going to lose the general election. Clinton’s bounceback is small, but by modern (i.e. post-1996) standards it looks large. There isn’t enough time for opinion to shift back (for instance, within my random diffusion assumption), especially given the natural setpoint of the race (my Bayesian prior that assumes regression to the mean). In other words, people’s intuitions started telling them that time had run out for Trump.

Based on past elections, I estimate that people’s “animal spirits” about a campaign start to shift when the front-runner’s win probability gets close to 95% as defined using PEC’s methods. At that point, the marketplace of ideas starts looking for a reason to pile on to the loser. Enter the video/audio recording.


Elected officials have a nose for the stench of a candidate who is on the cusp of becoming a loser. All along, Republican officials have been skittish about Trump, who executed a hostile takeover of their party. Now they have an excuse to jump ship.

[ducks]

but 70 percent of Democrats say Trump should end his campaign while just 12 percent of Republicans -- and 13 percent of female Republicans -- agree.

Many GOP officials have abandoned Trump, but as of now, nearly three-quarters of Republican voters, 74 percent, surveyed on Saturday said party officials should continue to support the nominee. Only 13 percent think the party shouldn't back him.

[Winehole23]

In the next example of water finding its own level, let us now consider the Senate. As I have pointed out, Senate candidates of the Presidential winner’s party typically gain 3-4 percentage points between Labor Day and Election Day. So far we’ve only seen a small part of that. If those numbers continue to fulfill their destiny, Democrats would get to 52 or 53 seats. The races to watch most closely are Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana. I am especially interested in two states with scarce polling: Indiana, where Evan Bayh (D) may have weakened a bit, and Missouri, where Jason Kander (D) has mounted a savvy campaign against Senator Roy Blunt (R). These races are linked at left via ActBlue (Republicans, see the NRSC link).


Until now I thought the House was likely to remain Republican. But the fact that swing district Congresswoman Barbara Comstock has fled for the exit is an early indicator. If Trump is enough of an anchor dragging his party down, Democrats have an outside chance. However, at a minimum they need to win the national popular vote by 6-8%. Keep an eye on the generic Congressional ballot preference, which has been changing in tandem with the Presidential Meta-Margin.

[Winehole23]

wish-casting won't get Trump across the finish line. the only suspense left is how much of a drag Trump will be down-ballot.

[Winehole23]

I agree this is different for many people, but not because of violence – Trump has called for violence against protesters, for the Central Park 5 to be executed etc – No, this is different because it was against white women. Before he was just insulting Blacks, Muslims, Mexicans, etc, all good clean fun for the GOP. But now he has gone too far…

[Winehole23]

I think Trump started his campaign as a stunt to promote his hotel in DC, and everyone else considered him along the lines of Ben Carson or Herman Cain, who are acknowledged as running a presidential campaign as a “for profit” exercise (see e.g., their fundraising). In 2012 there were, what four flavors of the month before Romney? So Trump as a joke was a commonly held belief right up until he never seemed to fade and by then it was too late.

In hindsight, the Republicans apparently thought their base voted for them because of the things they said they were for, rather than what those things implied, and got beaten by someone who left the dog whistle at home and just went straight for outright racism, xenophobia and sexism.

[Winehole23]

…Some Republicans have been floating a scenario where, through the magic of circuit court decisions let stand by a deadlocked Supreme Court, they manage to get a few faithless electors to vote for Pence while keeping both Trump and Hillary under 270, and the election goes to the House of Representatives, which picks Pence as President.

[ducks]

the establish on both sides have gotten this country in a mess
we want an outsider!

[DarrinS]

the establish on both sides have gotten this country in a mess
we want an outsider!

That's fine, just not this particular outsider. He's a severely flawed human being.

[Winehole23]

Trump is the consummate insider. Propped up by his rich daddy, propelled by big banks, mob ties and political connections.

[CosmicCowboy]

big banks have overwhelmingly financially supported Clinton.

[Reck]

but 70 percent of Democrats say Trump should end his campaign while just 12 percent of Republicans -- and 13 percent of female Republicans -- agree.

Many GOP officials have abandoned Trump, but as of now, nearly three-quarters of Republican voters, 74 percent, surveyed on Saturday said party officials should continue to support the nominee. Only 13 percent think the party shouldn't back him.

Who cares if he drops out or not.

It benefits Hillary for him to stay in. That means an even bigger win.

Trump won't win regardless. Get that through your little drone head.