Thats because he factors the daily tracking polls which are deceiving in their own way.
Do you believe that someone can be leading by 12 points and two days later be only up 4 then a week later being actually down a point?
Nate's own forecast doesn't change that much. Only about a point.
I do believe Comey's announcement has really hurt her and she'll probably be down to maybe a 60-65% favorite within the week. It took a few days for Silver's model to catch up to all the fallout from when Clinton collapsed on September 11th since it takes time for polls to come out factoring the new developments in.
Are you serious? Silver's polls-plus model has gone from Clinton having a 61% chance of taking Florida on last Friday to 49% today.
650K emails! Hillary's a criminal!
Rightwingnut, Repug, rightwing hate media, Trash "logic"!
Daily Mail
The Daily Mail leads with the headline "Everything Is Fine: Fear It, Fear It."
—That Mitc And Webb Look
The Daily Mail in 1938. Today it has the same message against asylum seekers
The Daily Mail (aka, Hate Mail, Daily Fail, Daily Heil, Daily Moan, Crazy Mail and so on) is a reactionary, neo-fascist tabloid rag masquerading as a "traditional values," middle-class newspaper that is, in many ways, the second-worst of the British gutter press (only Rupert Murdoch's Sun is worse). Its weighty Sunday counterpart is the Mail on Sunday.
The Daily Mail is to the U.K. what the New York Post is to the United States, and what the Drudge Report is to the Internet: to whit, gossipy tabloid "journalism" for those who cannot digest serious news, with a flippantly wingnut editorial stance.
The Daily Mail is notable among British tabloids for rejecting the standard red-top banner in order to try to appear more upmarket and respectable, although it does sometimes go in for the full front-page picture or headline characteristic of the populist rags.
It is also notorious for its frequent harassment of individuals, campaigns of hate directed at various minorities (lately focusing on Muslims), and willfully deceiving and lying to its readers.
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Daily_Mail
... explains TSA's beloved Daily Fail huge headline
Last edited by boutons_deux; 11-01-2016 at 12:58 PM.
Dead serious.
Polls fluctuate state by state. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about nationally.
Here's that article of Nate.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-with-clinton/
He goes into how Comey's letter has had minimal impact on the race.
And like I said..Nate likes to around with state percentages. He now has her winning Florida by almost 52%.
The national poll means , this election is won by taking 270 in the electoral college. Clinton getting more votes in red states she will still lose doesn't help her win the presidency. She is losing ground in Florida and Ohio, either of which would have won her the election a few days ago.
Ohio, I have always felt was going for Trump all along.
She's in great shape everywhere else though. She's even getting bonuses in Arizona and North Carolina.
Polls do not indicate she's struglling in her so called firewalls.
Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire are all almost a Clinton lock.
Honestly, Florida would be like a gift. She wants it but really doesn't need it if these states hold up.
Oh I forgot Michigan. She's up big time there as well.
Comey Must Explain Why He Advised Obama Not to Publicly Accuse Russia of Hacking Democrats
Comey struggled with not wanting to appear biased as the FBI investigated Russian interference with the U.S. presidential election, and so he told the Obama administration not to accuse Russia of the DNC hackings lest they be seen as "partisan".
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/...iticus+USA+%29
Arizona doesn't matter, it's a likely Trump state.
There has definitely seemed to be a 3rd Party shift in favor of Trump (i.e. 3rd Party votes declining while Trump rises).
People are blaming Comey but they're forgetting that a lot of Obamacare news came out last week related to increased rates. My guess is that has had more of an impact than Comey or any of this stuff.
The insurance rate rise, been going on for decades, being associated with, even blamed on, Obamacare is typical rightwing/media BULL , leading 10MS of Americans who can't see or smell bull if it hit them in the face.
Thanks for your editorial opinion, but regardless, news of double digit hikes came out and suddenly the gap is closing.
Nice try CTR shill. Like I said yesterday, Harry Reid was full of .
FBI opens investigation into ex-Trump campaign manager Manfort’s foreign ties
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/fbi-...e+Raw+Story%29
Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/01...ald-trump.html
By ERIC LICHTBLAU and STEVEN LEE MYERS
October 31, 2016
WASHINGTON — For much of the summer, the F.B.I. pursued a widening investigation into a Russian role in the American presidential campaign. Agents scrutinized advisers close to Donald J. Trump, looked for financial connections with Russian financial figures, searched for those involved in hacking the computers of Democrats, and even chased a lead — which they ultimately came to doubt — about a possible secret channel of email communication from the Trump Organization to a Russian bank.
Law enforcement officials say that none of the investigations so far have found any conclusive or direct link between Mr. Trump and the Russian government. And even the hacking into Democratic emails, F.B.I. and intelligence officials now believe, was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than electing Mr. Trump.
Hillary Clinton’s supporters, angry over what they regard as a lack of scrutiny of Mr. Trump by law enforcement officials, pushed for these investigations. In recent days they have also demanded that James B. Comey, the director of the F.B.I., discuss them publicly, as he did last week when he announced that a new batch of emails possibly connected to Mrs. Clinton had been discovered.
Supporters of Mrs. Clinton have argued that Mr. Trump’s evident affinity for Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin — Mr. Trump has called him a great leader and echoed his policies toward NATO, Ukraine and the war in Syria — and the hacks of leading Democrats like John D. Podesta, the chairman of the Clinton campaign, are clear indications that Russia has taken sides in the presidential race and that voters should know what the F.B.I. has found.
The F.B.I.’s inquiries into Russia’s possible role continue, as does the investigation into the emails involving Mrs. Clinton’s top aide, Huma Abedin, on a computer she shared with her estranged husband, Anthony D. Weiner. Mrs. Clinton’s supporters argue that voters have as much right to know what the F.B.I. has found in Mr. Trump’s case, even if the findings are not yet conclusive.
“You do not hear the director talking about any other investigation he is involved in,” Representative Gregory W. Meeks, Democrat of New York, said after Mr. Comey’s letter to Congress was made public. “Is he investigating the Trump Foundation? Is he looking into the Russians hacking into all of our emails? Is he looking into and deciding what is going on with regards to other allegations of the Trump Organization?”
Mr. Comey would not even confirm the existence of any investigation of Mr. Trump’s aides when asked during an appearance in September before Congress. In the Obama administration’s internal deliberations over identifying the Russians as the source of the hacks, Mr. Comey also argued against doing so and succeeded in keeping the F.B.I.’s imprimatur off the formal findings, a law enforcement official said. His stance was first reported by CNBC.
Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the minority leader, responded angrily on Sunday with a letter accusing the F.B.I. of not being forthcoming about Mr. Trump’s alleged ties with Moscow.
“It has become clear that you possess explosive information about close ties and coordination between Donald Trump, his top advisers, and the Russian government — a foreign interest openly hostile to the United States, which Trump praises at every opportunity,” Mr. Reid wrote. “The public has a right to know this information.”
F.B.I. officials declined to comment on Monday. Intelligence officials have said in interviews over the last six weeks that apparent connections between some of Mr. Trump’s aides and Moscow originally compelled them to open a broad investigation into possible links between the Russian government and the Republican presidential candidate. Still, they have said that Mr. Trump himself has not become a target. And no evidence has emerged that would link him or anyone else in his business or political circle directly to Russia’s election operations.
At least one part of the investigation has involved Paul Manafort, Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman for much of the year. Mr. Manafort, a veteran Republican political strategist, has had extensive business ties in Russia and other former Soviet states, especially Ukraine, where he served as an adviser to that country’s ousted president, Viktor F. Yanukovych.
But the focus in that case was on Mr. Manafort’s ties with a kleptocratic government in Ukraine — and whether he had declared the income in the United States — and not necessarily on any Russian influence over Mr. Trump’s campaign, one official said.
In classified sessions in August and September, intelligence officials also briefed congressional leaders on the possibility of financial ties between Russians and people connected to Mr. Trump. They focused particular attention on what cyberexperts said appeared to be a mysterious computer back channel between the Trump Organization and the Alfa Bank, which is one of Russia’s biggest banks and whose owners have longstanding ties to Mr. Putin.
F.B.I. officials spent weeks examining computer data showing an odd stream of activity to a Trump Organization server and Alfa Bank. Computer logs obtained by The New York Times show that two servers at Alfa Bank sent more than 2,700 “look-up” messages — a first step for one system’s computers to talk to another — to a Trump-connected server beginning in the spring. But the F.B.I. ultimately concluded that there could be an innocuous explanation, like a marketing email or spam, for the computer contacts.
The most serious part of the F.B.I.’s investigation has focused on the computer hacks that the Obama administration now formally blames on Russia. That investigation also involves numerous officials from the intelligence agencies. Investigators, the officials said, have become increasingly confident, based on the evidence they have uncovered, that Russia’s direct goal is not to support the election of Mr. Trump, as many Democrats have asserted, but rather to disrupt the integrity of the political system and undermine America’s standing in the world more broadly.
The hacking, they said, reflected an intensification of spy-versus-spy operations that never entirely abated after the Cold War but that have become more aggressive in recent years as relations with Mr. Putin’s Russia have soured.
A senior intelligence official, who like the others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a continuing national security investigation, said the Russians had become adept at exploiting computer vulnerabilities created by the relative openness of and reliance on the internet. Election officials in several states have reported what appeared to be cyberintrusions from Russia, and while many doubt that an Election Day hack could alter the outcome of the election, the F.B.I. agencies across the government are on alert for potential disruptions that could wreak havoc with the voting process itself.
Tax returns.
On November 8th we will see if people in this country are stupid enough to elect Mrs. Clinton. Trump isn't the savior he wants us to believe, but he wants to change things for the good, enough is enough people take a stand. The dems just want the power and will continue to drag this country down the tube with socialism. Hillary is corrupt and a crook, a vote for her is a vote for the continuing demise of our great nation. All the dems care about is having power over us, not the best interests of the American people! Vote for Trump, Gary Johnson, anyone but Clinton!
Lmao North Carolina meme. Nate shillver just turned it red on polls plus
What a re
Polls tighten always. They did the last two election cycles. Yesterday a poll came out that had Hillary up 6 points in Alaska and today it instantly flipped back to Trump. The media is going to continue to troll the public up until next Tuesday. The polls had stayed somewhat true to their numbers before and after the whole health/deplorable thing. Now the week before the election they can't get a grip on who's really polling where. Ok...
The internet freaks out after FBI posts old Clinton-related case files one week before the election
The FBI has once again raised some eyebrows by seemingly injecting itself into the 2016 election — although it’s far from clear at this point whether this particular incident was intentional.
On Tuesday afternoon, the FBI Records Vault Twitter account posted a link to files related to Bill Clinton’s pardoning of Marc Rich on his way out of office in 2001. The FBI investigated the pardoning last decade, but closed the case in 2005 without any charges being filed.
Jaclyn Friedman
✔@jaclynf
WTF, @FBIRecordsVault? No wrongdoing was found in this ancient case. Why on earth would you release this a week before the election?
Elizabeth Bruenig
✔@ebruenig
.@FBIRecordsVault please release the records detailing how this tweet was conceived of
Suzanne @Tumultuous
@FBIRecordsVault you don't even care about hiding your bias anymore, do you?
debra nyberg haza @djhaza
@FBIRecordsVault you are meddling in an election. I hope it's proven you're colluding with the republicans.
Shosha-na(sty woman) @shoshpd
@FBIRecordsVault why are you releasing these records from an investigation closed in 2005 a week before the election?
the timing of the release is sure to raise some eyebrows — as Talking Points Memo notes, the FBI Records Vault account hadn’t been active for a long time before mysteriously coming back online this past Sunday.
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/the-...e+Raw+Story%29Suzanne @Tumultuous
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