Church of Trump

[RD2191]

Just so we're clear, I was calling the media predictable and pathetic, not any particular poster.

[spurraider21]

for months trump couldn't shut the up about how amazing polls are... now he just acts like they're make believe

[baseline bum]

yeah, except no. nate silver has clinton leading north carolina and florida, albeit slightly

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

trump essentially has to sweep every contested state, the probability of doing so is slim, less than 1 in 3 right now, per silver. even if you give trump all the states you mentioned, hillary's leads in colorado and new hampshire are enough

He has Clinton losing both states in the forecast that factors in demographics along with the polls.

[spurraider21]

gotcha, my mistake

[ducks]

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 · 15m15 minutes ago

Not only is it justifiable for Trump to be campaigning in WI or MI—it's absolutely the correct strategy. Whereas Clinton in AZ is dubious

[baseline bum]

yeah, except no. nate silver has clinton leading north carolina and florida, albeit slightly

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

trump essentially has to sweep every contested state, the probability of doing so is slim, less than 1 in 3 right now, per silver. even if you give trump all the states you mentioned, hillary's leads in colorado and new hampshire are enough

Pretty much. Here is the map with every state where Silver has a >75% chance for one candidate in his polls+forecast shaded in. It's 269-180 Clinton.



And he has New Hampshire as 72.7% likely to go Clinton in this model. Trump has to win every single state not shaded.

[ducks]

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 · 20m20 minutes ago

Here's what happens if the national popular vote pulls within 2 points. Very shaky map for Clinton with *5* must-win states within 1 point.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwN0mVkWcAI0ChN.jpg

[ducks]

1% is nothing it will all determine turnout!

if the black turnout for early is any sign of things to come Clinton is in deep

[Spurs 4 The Win]

yeah, except no. nate silver has clinton leading north carolina and florida, albeit slightly

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

trump essentially has to sweep every contested state, the probability of doing so is slim, less than 1 in 3 right now, per silver. even if you give trump all the states you mentioned, hillary's leads in colorado and new hampshire are enough

He gives Trump North Carolina and Florida in the polls plus model

[baseline bum]

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 · 15m15 minutes ago

Not only is it justifiable for Trump to be campaigning in WI or MI—it's absolutely the correct strategy. Whereas Clinton in AZ is dubious

Clinton in Arizona is unbelievably re ed. It's not enough to save her if she loses Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania and McCain's not going to lose his senate seat.

[baseline bum]

He gives Trump North Carolina and Florida in the polls plus model

They're still coin tosses in that model though. It's an uphill battle for Trump at this moment. He needs to chop more off her lead to have a reasonable chance.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

They're still coin tosses in that model though. It's an uphill battle for Trump at this moment. He needs to chop more off her lead to have a reasonable chance.

Agreed but momentum favors Trump at the moment

[Spurs 4 The Win]

Clinton in Arizona is unbelievably re ed. It's not enough to save her if she loses Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania and McCain's not going to lose his senate seat.

Yeah, Im not really sure what her strategy is with that...

[CosmicCowboy]

I will be disgusted November 9 no matter who wins but I have to admit a Trump win and all the disaster it would bring would almost be worth it to see the monumental meltdowns from Bookaki and Reck.

[baseline bum]

Agreed but momentum favors Trump at the moment

True but momentum changes pretty quickly in this election with how much both candidates are hated. It's not a given Trump maintains this momentum for the rest of the week.

[baseline bum]

Yeah, Im not really sure what her strategy is with that...

Probably her arrogance at thinking she had the election wrapped up last week.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

True but momentum changes pretty quickly in this election with how much both candidates are hated. It's not a given Trump maintains this momentum for the rest of the week.

True.
Tomorrow it wouldnt surprise me if we find out that Hillary buried murder victims in her backyard or that Trump headed up a pros ution ring. Absolutely nuts how these two buffoons cant stay out of their own way.

[Th'Pusher]

I will be disgusted November 9 no matter who wins but I have to admit a Trump win and all the disaster it would bring would almost be worth it to see the monumental meltdowns from Bookaki and Reck.

This is one of the stupidest things I've ever read on the internet.

[CosmicCowboy]

This is one of the stupidest things I've ever read on the internet.

coming from one of the stupidest posters to ever curse the internet with his presence...

one of them has to win and they both suck.

[baseline bum]

coming from one of the stupidest posters to ever curse the internet with his presence...

one of them has to win and they both suck.

If McMullin wins Utah and denies both candidates 270 the house would probably select him president.

[florige]

Just so we're clear, I was calling the media predictable and pathetic, not any particular poster.

Sorry my bad. Lol So used to getting blasted by Trump supporters.

[florige]

Probably her arrogance at thinking she had the election wrapped up last week.

Right. She was going for the kill and I think started worrying about house and senate seats in Romney states. Now it's looking like she may have to sure up her base again in Obama states. These next two days are critical for her campaign.
If I'm her I'm conceding FL and Ohio and maintain focus on, NC, PA and probably CO. I would play it by ear on MI and WI.

[Th'Pusher]

coming from one of the stupidest posters to ever curse the internet with his presence...

one of them has to win and they both suck.

They don't suck equally by any stretch of the imagination. saying you wouldn't mind seeing the most unqualified major party candidate to ever run for POTUS win so that you can see the reaction of some random man that posts on an Internet message board is, quite frankly, one of the stupidest things I've read on the Internet.

[CosmicCowboy]

They don't suck equally by any stretch of the imagination. saying you wouldn't mind seeing the most unqualified major party candidate to ever run for POTUS win so that you can see the reaction of some random man that posts on an Internet message board is, quite frankly, one of the stupidest things I've read on the Internet.

meh.

Hillary equally sucks.

[Reck]

If McMullin wins Utah and denies both candidates 270 the house would probably select him president.

Except Hillary wasn't going to win Utah at all? How do they do electoral votes there? Winner take all?

If this guy wins he takes away EV that Trump needs. Hillary 270 path does not involve Utah in the least.

It would be a problem if she lost Pennsylvania or a key swing state though.