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So...long story short..he needs a turnaround of 2.7 points and Hillary has a 3.3 point average lead. He'd still lose.
BTW who the is Harry Enten? I dont trust anyone that's not Silver out of that site.
So...long story short..he needs a turnaround of 2.7 points and Hillary has a 3.3 point average lead. He'd still lose.
BTW who the is Harry Enten? I dont trust anyone that's not Silver out of that site.
someone that silver trust to write articles for his site
Nate Silver @NateSilver538 · 1h1 hour ago
Lots of not-very-good state polls for Clinton today, though, wiping out earlier gains she made based on nat'l polls. http://53eig.ht/29fvWfn
Trump dug too deep a hole.
Short of any HUGE revelations in the next 3 days Hillary wins.
Jonathan C @jcpolitech 1h1 hour ago @johnbellessa @NateSilver538 this makes zero sense to me too. Most of these so called bad polls he cites are in red states.
If that is the case, lol.
Winning red states in not part of the plan.
That being said, Hillary is ting herself. Had to go to Detroit today to try to keep from losing Michigan where she was ahead double digits two weeks ago...
That's called protecting your firewall. Her average lead there is almost 5 points.That being said, Hillary is ting herself. Had to go to Detroit today to try to keep from losing Michigan where she was ahead double digits two weeks ago...
Oh and she just went up in Florida again. RCP has her average at 1.5 after being down the whole of this week.
Harper Polling: Trump-Hillary Tied at 46 Percent in Pa.
(AP)
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied in Pennsylvania four days before the election, according to a new Harper Polling survey released Friday
Why is there an (R) next to this poll?
Laughable.
A firewall that has been solid Democrat since the 80's?...just shows how scared she is. She wouldn't be there if her polling didn't show she needed to be there.
Ducks.
I got like 242 Clinton. Pretty solid.
If Florida goes Clinton, you can stop watching the screen very early and get the extra sleep for work on Wednesday. So in a way, it's a good thing for all of us to go about our way.
pgardn polling
From an electoral vote standpoint we will know early. Trump needs New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida to even have a chance.
Obama did the same thing in the closing days.
Michigan or Pennsylvania aren't teh states she should be nervous of. It's places like New Hampshire and maybe Colorado.
In fact, Hillary's campaign is going to wrap up their campaign in places where she will win with certainty.
I don't think it's fair to say Trump dug too deep a hole, the only reason he has a slight chance of winning is that he is somewhat compe ive in places any other GOP candidate would be getting their ass kicked.
I know popular opinion is that a normal boring white male GOP candidate repeating the same ole losing message would win easily this time but I don't see it. Electorally the GOP has spent 2 decades digging too deep a hole with the standard GOP message imo.
Those three states the polls are super tight in. And if it comes down to Florida again we might not know for weeks who won the election.
I can promise you FL will not be done counting on Nov 8th.
Trump within margin of error now in Michigan
Where is ducks getting all this magic polls from?
Nate Silver has fallen into the trap he used to accuse the mainstream media of falling into, and that trap is getting lost in the day-to-day drama of the campaign (i.e., the "who won the day" bull ). Ultimately, the math does not make sense for Trump. He is not winning this election. He would have to start by winning the crucial swing states and I doubt he sweeps those, then he has to flip a democrat state and that's unlikely, then he has to keep from losing a dependable red state which is also becoming less likely (think Utah, Arizona or Georgia)... The probability of it all falling into place for him is close to none. It's possible but it's not happening -- he is going to lose.
Trump could pull off a surprise win, but it looks like the wicked witch of Washington, D.C. is coming in with all her corruption, scandals. People in this country that vote her in will regret it because it's such a stupid vote anyway with her obvious corruption, FBI investigation and rising Obamacare costs. This country needs change bigtime, not gonna happen with a Hillary presidency or if indicted Tim Kaine presidency.
Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.
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