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That has already been discussed in another thread. Thanks for posting thought, it's a really good article.
Kawhi Leonard is so great at defense, he's actually hurting the Spurs http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ka...ing-the-spurs/
That has already been discussed in another thread. Thanks for posting thought, it's a really good article.
Good read. Just all the more reason the Spurs have to move Gasol to the bench; not much they can do about Parker since they don't really have anyone they can start in his place (love Patty but he isn't the answer either).
Matt MOORE (HPbasketball) might be the most annoying, fanbase-baiting account on NBA twitter, but even I have to admit that's a genuinely thought-provoking article...
Hopefully Pop and coaching stuff have a counter to this move..
Last edited by spursistan; 12-13-2016 at 07:02 PM.
On the bright side, he can conserve energy for the offense.
The only thing this article does is give a great example why plus minus stats are re-tar-ded. So KL effectively neutralized the Bulls best player, yet he is advanced statted out? Lol
Ive made this argument for years: Player A - Has all 10 pts 10 assists 12 steals. The man he is defending has 0pts 0 assists 12 Tos. At the end of the qtr Player A's team is down by 1. Player A has a -1 and the man he was defending has a +1.
Dont be an idiot and think that advanced stats are the end all be all. KL is literally a top 3 player in the league and the best perimeter defender in the league. F yo article clown. Probably written by Chinook
Agree that advanced stats in a vacuum or with small sample size are misleading. But a few things:
- Counting stats are also limited
- Plus-minus is a counting stat, not an advanced stat.
- The example you give both suffers from small sample size and quoting a counting stat, not an advanced stat. If that same trend were seen over hundreds of minutes, it might be more meaningful. Also, other players you're surrounded with matter and pure +/- doesn't adjust for this. It's very hard to adjust for and basketball stats are admittedly limited. Football is probably worst at measuring individual performance given sample size and noise from situation, while baseball is probably best. Basketball is somewhere in between.
Box and one . . .
I listen to his podcast CBS sports often, he actually has really good takes. Haven't checked out his twitter though...
Everyone knows that plus +/- is a flawed stat, for one game at least. Over the course of a season the most impact players tend to rank high in that stat.
Moore's article doesn't refute that KL is a top defensive player, and he also calls he a great offensive player but when KL is guarding someone (like Rudy Gay, Batum, Butler, etc.) they basically stop passing it to those players and go 4 on 4. Parker and Gasol are tire fires on defense and Gasol, Lee, and LMA are rank among the worst in pick and roll defenders on PPP basis.
If Pop were to go with Dedmon at the five with Parker, Green, Leonard, and LMA. That trend should change drastically. This explains why Leonards steals and blocks per game have dipped despite playing more minutes same for his rebounding. If teams are having his man hide out in the corner then he is too far away from the play to grab defensive boards like he did earlier in his career.
Matt Bonner was the king of the +/- stat, that alone shows me it was a heavily flawed stat lol. I agree.
It was not just noise though. There's a reason he graded so well in +/- and not necessarily because he was a good player, but he's shown that for long stretches of games if you can drag an opponent big away from the basket it opens the floor for your teammates, effectively making them better. Thus the +/- being high and the value of the stretch 4 position - the +/- in his case was legit.
It's probably because his teammates relax on defense when Kawhi is on the floor, knowing he's there waiting in the wings, ready to swoop in and save the day. When he's off the floor, everyone goes, "Gotta lock down now! Team defense!" And they synergize better that way.
Moore was right about one thing, Parker and Gasol won't improve defensively, they can't. So maybe if Pop played the most effective lineups, the team might improve defensively. Also Parker being in the 6th percentile as a pick n roll ball handler is atrocious. Good Lord. Spurs will lose Mills next year and Murray is far from ready to be a starting pg. Kawhi is going to get burnt out from having to carry the defense and offense. Not sustainable. Pop is overrated, he should've retired with Timmy. This team needs a new coach who doesn't prioritize seniority and loyalty over winning. It seems like the Spurs keep looking for answers when the solution is already there but Pop refuses to make changes.
One of these days, people will connect Bonner's plus-minus with the fact that so many teams now have stretch-bigs. One of these days.
This is not hard to understand when you aren't cherry-picking examples to try to fit your predetermined conclusion. You want to try to find a trend to explain the Spurs struggle? Look at how Kawhi's defensive rating correlates to his offensive rating. If his shots aren't falling consistently (or if he's not going to the line), then the Spurs can't set up their defense. I doubt that is something unique to Kawhi at all. Any first-option wing struggling on offense will hurt his team's defense, just due to where they get their shots from. There are shots that are inherently good like corner-threes, and there are shots that are only acceptable if a player hits them at a high clip like long-twos. Whenever Kawhi, Mills, Parker, LMA or Gasol struggle hitting those, it really cramps the offense.The biggest question is about when Leonard's off the court: The defense is bad when Leonard's on the court. But why is the defense so much better when Leonard's not playing? The lineups thing makes sense, in terms of playing starters vs. playing bench guys. But it's still baffling that these other units, some of which feature Gasol and Parker, are still defending well. How does the offense change their habits when they're not facing Leonard? That's the biggest thing we still don't understand.
Also, non-cherry-picked examples would show when Kawhi is getting beat as well, especially when he's not guarding small-forwards. The article acts like Fournier scoring seven first-half points is somehow horrible for the Spurs when he's the first option for the Magic. He still scored 13 for the game, which is about what you'd expect. The Spurs didn't move Kawhi on him to shut him down; they did so because they didn't want Manu guarding him and thought Gordon would be easier for Ginobili to handle. The Wizards game saw Porter go for 15/12 in addition to the back court having good games. LMaM scored a season high, and Re was productive. Too many counter examples to try to make things fit a narrative. Doesn't mean that teams can't attack the Spurs in the way he described. It may be an issue the Spurs will really have to look at come playoff time. But it's not the handy explanation he wants it to be.
The Spurs aren't losing games based on this 4-on-4 idea. They lost games because they either couldn't score to save their lives for long stretches or because they are getting killed by random three-point barrages. In a way, I'm glad that more fans will understand how spacing really works when they see it explained from the other side. They can hopefully realize why thinking that someone like Green getting "shut down" by not having a guy leave him doesn't mean he's not helping the offense. But getting consistently good looks on offense is easily the Spurs' biggest issue. I just don't know if they have the offensive personnel on the team to get there.
Looking at the numbers Mills-Dedmon combo maximize every Spurs lineups.
But I can see Pop refusing to make the right moves at this point of the season. "It's just December" "Gasol is the experiencedguy over Dedmon" "Doesn't matter what they say, I'll die with Parker"
I wonder how a player gains more experience if he doesn't play many minutes with the team.
Kawhi is averaging 24.7 ppg in .47 FG% mid-range, .52 FG% in 16-24 ft, overall .495 2P FG%
.50 FG% is a high percentage on those shots and Spurs D still looks bad or at least not elite top 5.
.500 on midrange Js is elite and yet it only equates to .333 from deep, this is why the Warriors will always overwhelm a team relying so much on midrange. Kawhi's biggest problem this season is that he's shooing career lows, and by a healthy margin, at the rim and also from 3-10 feet away AND he's shooting from there less often than he ever has.
If he can't get to the rim more often, combined with LMA finding his low post game from last season, as opposed to the terrible Gasol post ups, the Spurs have no chance to compete in a 7 game series against great offensive teams.
It doesn't help that Kawhi is still in the mode where he's trying to get fouled driving rather than scoring. If he starts scoring better inside, then teams will start fouling him again, but throwing up bad shots while screaming at the refs is a negative feedback loop.
The problem with the Spurs is that they are letting themselves be too dependent on Kawhi. They can't recover from him shooting poorly, on either end. Some of that is pure personnel, especially in the back court. But some of that is also that their offense isn't trying to incorporate other guys as much as it used to. Dedmon starting would help, but unless that also comes with Parker being able to handle more of the offensive load (and getting that load), then it won't be as good as people want it to be.
With the current emphasis on Kawhi and LMA, the Spurs are becoming a poor man's version of the Durant Thunder in their starting unit. Both of those guys were uber-efficient too if you just looked at their numbers.
Nice post.
My exact sentiments when having a conversation the other day.
It's amazing how people can't quite grasp this. When majority of the shots you shoot are long 2's, you will lose in the long run vs. the better teams who find and create more valuable shots ( open 3 PAs, layups/dunks). It's why the Spurs beat the Heat in 14', and why they were the better team in 13' -- even if they didn't have the same elite talent from a player perspective. Spurs rely too much on the long 2 -- it's that simple.
Also, LMA wasn't even that effective in the post last year. Spurs ran a lot of action getting LA really easy looks inside when Duncan would flash quicker than Gasol, once LA had inside position on his man. This year so far, Spurs haven't given LA as many easy looks inside. He's had to resort to his lethargic and predictable 4 down, back to the basket, 4 dribbles reverse pivot fade-away.
Good post.
However, Kawhi will struggle scoring inside with the ball in PnRs. He simple doesn't have the physical attributes with the ball (speed, quickness, acceleration, change of direction ect) to create the needed separation. He scores mostly from his overrated mid range J from the PnR that yields a pretty PPP. The reason Kawhi's PPP in PnRs overrated is because theres not much else that option manufactures. You need your lead man to develop options for everyone ( including himself) when he has the ball. If your lead man doesn't have that kind of multi- option threat with the ball, in high volume, the overall O will suffer -- which will hurt the D as you mentioned.
That is why Kawhi can't be the lead guy on O if this team wants to compete for another le. He needs help and LaMarcus isn't the answer for that as his offense is predicated on shots being created for him right now ( he's not a good shot creator).
Last edited by MaNu4Tres; 12-14-2016 at 08:14 AM.
I don't like the idea of Kawhi in as the PnR ball-handler that much. I'd rather have him be the screen-setter, which would give him the option to pop to the three-point line if the D plays it honestly or to have a favorable match-up if the D switches the PG onto him. With Pau and LMA being credible three-point shooters this season and with Bertans as an option, there should be opportunities to do that without sacrificing spacing.
A ton of Kawhi is general isn't good for the Spurs. A ton of Kawhi in good positions is what's good. And that's really true for every player.
Me either. I don't like it and that's why when ESPN guys like Tom Haberstroh, who don't watch the Spurs as in-depth as you or I, makes a column on Kawhis' high PPP in PnR it makes me want to puke. Fans are just looking at the stat and jerking off to it, when they do not realize he's actually not a great weapon in PnRs because of his inability to manufacturer good looks for others like the PnR is suppose to do.
It's like having a shutdown corner like Deon Sanders. The opposing QB doesn't even look that way. The problem for the Spurs in the analogy however is that the defenders on the other side of the ball (Pau and Parker here) routinely give up the long ball down the field.
It's a direct consequence of losing Timmy and Parker's deteriorating play.
People act like teams are just starting to go away from Kawhi though. Teams have been going away from Kawhi, and exploiting Parker/Mills any chance they get for years now.
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