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CP3 always obliterates Parker. One year older isn't going to change that.
He hasn't made it through a playoffs unscathed since '12, mere days after he hit 30. Since then, he's had difficulty just going long stretches without picking up some type of lower body injury, that saps his speed, quickness and lift. So even with careful game and minute management, there's just too many games to expect him to maintain his recent level and hold up another 4-6 months . . . but for the purposes of this, let's pretend he does.
I'm going yes. I still don't think they'd win it, but I do think they'd have a puncher's chance. Him looking like a real starting point guard again transforms the entire offense from limited to dynamic.
CP3 always obliterates Parker. One year older isn't going to change that.
I wouldn't mind the spurs taking a few bad L's so OP can go back to being emo and off himself
IF (with caps) this TP can show up in the playoff, i like our chances better against the Dubs, much more.
They were contenders before. Now they just have more breathing room.
I don't understand the pessimism regarding the Spurs' chance to win it all on this board. We are right on par with CLE who just beat GSW just as we beat GSW on opening night. One game doesn't say too much throughout an 82 game season and best of 7 in the playoffs, but we have shown we are capable of beating GSW on their court, who'd I assume everyone thinks we aren't as good as. IMO we have just as good of a chance as GSW does. I don't understand the mentality of us having a "puncher's chance"... to me we are right in the mix.
To answer the question, I think without TP we have significantly less of a chance to win it all. He isn't our best player (no lol) but he's still relied on heavily to make our offense go. When he is on, our offense is damn near unstoppable.
Last edited by Chews; 01-04-2017 at 06:19 PM. Reason: answer the question
They've always had a punchers chance; just needed a lot of outside help to get there. In terms of Parker and his play: it helps, but I still don't think it's enough to make them legit contenders. The bench hasn't looked as potent as it has to start the season and they'll need it to play at a high level to neutralize the star-power/athleticism disadvantages they'll face. On top of that Gasol is much worse on defense than I think PATFO realized and I don't think they're willing to admit that mistake by starting Dedmon (not to mention if Gasol would accept said benching); even then Dedmon hasn't been quite as good in recent weeks (last night's game notwithstanding) with his foul proneness rearing it's ugly head.
On top of Tony keeping up his play, the Spurs need a few more things to happen:
-Gasol needs to improve with his defensive effort. He'll never be Duncan (even at the end of last season's level on defense) but he needs to put more into stopping guards on the PnR instead of pretending to while fouling when they blitz past him. He also needs to put more into securing rebounds that aren't right at the basket. Two or three games this season have been decided on those rebounds', and generally not in the Spurs' favor, with Gasol having the chance to secure them but just simply not caring enough to do so.
-Dedmon needs more trust from Pop. Even when he was playing great earlier on, we've seen Pop bench him in favor of Gasol (or even Lee) to end games. This cannot happen against the Clips/Dubs/Cavs of the league that'll exploit Gasol/Lee's defensive deficiencies every time down the court.
-Manu and Patty need to remain consistent. Last night was a good example: LMA, Kawhi, and Parker were playing well, and Patty/Manu didn't force anything. In a playoff game, if they decide to play out of control/chuck and it isn't working, they can cost the team a win.
-Manu needs to keep up his 3PT shooting. He's been incredibly efficient from 3, and it's helped the team win several games already this season. Him being such a huge threat from three along with Mills makes Simmons/Lee/Dedmon effective as a unit, and should allow the bench to remain potent against any opponent.
Not disagreeing with you but where can I find numbers about Pau's (or anyone's) PnR defense? I think it is a weakness in his game and our defense in total, but to an eye test for myself he doesn't seem to be as bad as people claim him to be defending the PnR. Would like to compare his numbers with others' to see exactly how worrisome his defense is.
Basketball-Reference
Legit contenders? No but KL and LA do. I don't get this fascination have with TP...he's the best we have this year. With TD gone, him and Manu are leaders on this team and that's just as important as points and rebounds.
Am I missing something then? I don't see anything related to PnR defense. I do see DRTG which would be the best gauge I assume? He is 1 point higher than D Jordan this year, 2 points higher than H Whiteside this year, 1 point higher than D Howard this year, 3 points higher than D Green. Those are all known rim protectors. Is this not accurate or varies based on how the team plays? I understand defense is no where near his specialty but I think a lot of people hype how bad he is.
nba.com/stats is used pretty heavily around here too...
Here are some Spurs-related #s 1/4 through the season..obviously a tiny sample size + starters defend other starters and bench guys defend the opposing bench, which should be taken into consideration, of course(sorry for the ty quality, uploaded on my phone)
Filtered for possessions played, too, fyi..
Top ISO defenders in the league:
Worst post defenders:
Worst pick&roll ball-handler defenders:
Worst pick&roll roll man defenders:
Parker maybe
but current Kawhi, Lamarcus, Gasol and Green are not
If Parker consistently played the way he has the last few games then definitely, but the problem is we all know he wont, hes teased us the last couple seasons putting together good stretches before pulling a butt cheek and turning back into Porky
to be fair so have Manu and Duncan.
and Manu just looks about done for the season
If this were ANY other season in NBA history, this question wouldn't need to be asked, because at no point in NBA history has a team winning 80% of their games has been considered a pretender. That's a 66 win pace, which is good for a tie for the 14th best team of all-time by record.
The idea that we have no shot at winning the le if Parker plays to his remaining potential is just ridiculous. Kawhi is a top 5 player in the league and LMA -- when motivated -- is one of the hardest big men in the league to stop.
We need Parker to play well and the bench to continue to outshine the other team's, and we are more than a tough out for anyone. To say nothing of the fact that we seem to match up extremely well with the Warriors, who no longer have the incredibly elite defense they had last year with Bogut & Green.
Duncan was always fine until he ed his only knee last season, so that doesn't matter. As for Manu, I disagree with that, advanced stats prove Manu has always been a plus for the Spurs even in his advanced years, but Parker starting and playing big minutes has killed us the last two seasons in the playoffs. I'm not a Parker hate either tbh but we have to be realistic, Parker shows flashes but the last two playoff outings were disastrous.
Manu this season is still serviceable, plenty of games he has provided a huge spark, I don't think hes done but definitely on his last legs
Aren't the Dubs top 5 in defensive efficiency this season? They are still pretty good on that end tbh.
Last year I think they were at one point among the best defenses of all time. Last time I checked they were 10th-11th. Now they're tied for 2nd with us in DE and 5th in DRTG with 104.32 (Spurs are first with 99.55).
So yes, still very very good, but not at the echelon that they were. Losing Bogut did affect them, especially when you consider that their defense should be even better given the incredible offense they boast should severely curtail transition opportunities for the other team.
Wow, thank you for all that. When I get some time I'll have to go check those out and see if they're trending up (hopefully). Again, thank you for the info!
There was a stretch in last nights' game against the Raptors where he was playing high level. He was collapsing the defense and finding open shooters. And those open shooters were knocking them down. Some of the ball movement was almost a flashback to 2014. When the Spurs play like that, they are hard to beat.
the last four games have been against scrub ass teams.
I'm with Bill Mc on these two posts. We've always had a chance and one that will only improve if our health holds out- especially the older guys for obvious reasons.
Another Parker thread
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