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Again, do you even know if RPM does that? I've yet to see any actual formula for it. I've only seen speculation of what it is and how it's related to its ancestor.
Definitely an ulterior motive here, yes.
I don't like "inference" metrics. Fine for predicting consumer trends, healthcare treatment, and the like, but totally stupid to use in sports as a be-all/end-all value assessment.
Again, do you even know if RPM does that? I've yet to see any actual formula for it. I've only seen speculation of what it is and how it's related to its ancestor.
This. And grabbing the 1 seed would be a big boost as well.
If it's using Bayesian methods, it's inferring.RPM reflects enhancements to RAPM by Engelmann, among them the use of Bayesian priors, aging curves, score of the game and extensive out-of-sample testing to improve RPM's predictive accuracy.
E.g., Player A lights up scrubs in garbage time, ergo, his RPM is high, thus there's good "evidence" to hypothesize said performance over 48 minutes against starters.Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available.
"Well, it does adjust for opposition via a type of ELO [I'm assuming] system."
How can there be any legitimate statistical foundation in this sense when end-of-the-bench players might never play against a starter over the season? Even the sample sizes of bench players against starters will be insufficient to really draw any meaningful conclusions. A bench player might see his starting counterpart for only a few minutes per game. Not to mention the fact that usually in that case, the bench player is fresh while the starter might be near the end of his minute allotment for that particular quarter. So if a player like Bertans comes in and lights up Anthony Davis for three quick 3s and the Spurs increase their lead in that time frame, his RPM (for that particular segment) will be sky high. But it would be foolish to extrapolate that impact over 48 minutes, which RPM does, even when it supposedly "adjusts." It's blind to game conditions and context.
Again, this works fine for something like a drug trial: "These 1000 patients randomly selected from the general population showed a 70% improvement in arthritis after the 30 day trial. From this [Bayesian data crunching ensues], we can safely estimate the efficacy of the drug to be in the range demonstrated during the trial."
But sports aren't a laboratory environment where variables are kept relatively constant. In the drug trial example, every patient had arthritis and took the same drug for the same amount of time. Of course there's variables like age, disease severity, and so on, but at the end of the day, they all interacted with the drug in the same exact way. Kawhi and Kyle Andersen don't "interact" with Lebron James in any similar way. If Anderson does come in to play against Lebron, the conditions will be vastly different from when Kawhi was playing against him. And furthermore, Anderson's sample size will be insufficient to draw any meaningful conclusion about his "real" value.
Again, many of those "variables" do not interact with each other enough to even attempt to "model" anything. It's a highly speculative exercise.The RPM model sifts through more than 230,000 possessions each NBA season to tease apart the "real" plus-minus effects attributable to each player, employing techniques similar to those used by scientific researchers when they need to model the effects of numerous variables at the same time.
Harden will win it.
Bron isn`t winning MVP with Cavs having record worst than Spurs, Warriors and Rockets. If Spurs pull 1st overall seed it`s Kawhi, if Rockets are close to Spurs it`s Harden. Doubt Curry will win it, even with Warriors getting 1st seed.
agreed... it counts useless stats from blowouts against sorry teams the same as clutch happenings like last night and recent games for us. Also pimps up inorganic stats like RW's fake triple doubles.
Curry has an outside chance if they keep the #1 seed and Durant remains out until the playoffs or worse.
agreed... otherwise, you'd have to give it to Kobe in 2006, clearly the best player in the league and literally the only thing that kept them from being a 10-72 team or worse... gave the mighty Suns all they could handle and much more before bowing out due to some choking and some bad luck on a rebound.
But seriously, Kobe's 2006 campaign >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Westbrook's 2017 campaign. Inorganic double and triple doubles are useless and not uncommon or original. But Kobe's 62 points in 3 quarters, 81 points in a game, and 11 game winning shots on the season? That's just absurd. If that didn't win MVP as a non top 4 seed (in a year where Nash won it as a rather unimpressive 2-seed) then there will never be an MVP outside the top 4 in a conference.
Yes I agree but they are, and should be if the media wasnt filled with idiots, the leading 2 candidates. Westbrook is a fake, his team isnt going anywhere. And I'd have been fine with Harden but Kawhi 3-1'd him already while outplaying him every time iirc.
Raw ON/OFF is the only argument i would take Lebron for MVP over Kawhi. To me Russ is out of it, there is no way an MVP should go to a player on 7th seed/sub 50-win team
RPM is a bull crap stat, I was checking their defensive ratings and some of the players ranked ahead of Kiwi like Kevin Love, Otto Porter, Jokic prove it. Just like when D.Blair and the Red Mamba would be the best Spurs on the court via +/- but anyone with two eyes and common sense always knew otherwise and only trolls suggested differently.
Westbrook is averaging 10.0 apg exactly, so if that drops below 10, I would assume most voters would bump him down.
How Kawhi finishes this season will be key, and more importantly the big games against other candidates and top teams. He has a very good chance, but I fear the media is too obsessed with Harden/WB at this point
I think the voters will not vote Lebron because of all the help he constantly asks for and usually gets. Wouldn't be surprised if the er gets another big to make up for Bogut, tbh.
It's kind of disturbing how much truth there is to this. Amin El-Hassan straight up said this on Sportscenter this morning. Basically said ' if Westbrook maintains his triple-double average he's my MVP if not it's Kawhi'. A couple of tenths of an average shouldn't determine an award like this smh.
Nobody is looking at RPM as a primary measure for MVP votingthe only media members that even follow advanced metrics are also the same guys who understand how they work(so they wouldn't view them incorrectly like most internet posters)..
Narrative is the most important criteria for MVP, which has been the case for a long time..Kawhi's "narrative" case is growing with games like last night..if he has 2 huge games vs. the Warriors, he'll actually have a legit shot IMO..
Agreed. But if he slips in either and we lose, I think he has no shot. Esp if WB averages the Triple-dub. Media is more obsessed with them than ever. Spurs have to over the dubs for the 1-seed for Kawhi to have a chance imo.Nobody is looking at RPM as a primary measure for MVP voting
Narrative is the most important criteria for MVP, which has been the case for a long time..Kawhi's "narrative" case is growing with games like last night..if he has 2 huge games vs. the Warriors, he'll actually have a legit shot IMO..
Should also be noted that the Thunder have a pretty favorable schedule down the stretch. Still play the Suns, Twolves, Nuggets twice, Milwaukee, Orlando, Kings, and Nets... WB will likely put up big numbers against these bottom-feeders (minus a decent Nugg to team).
I think 2nd and 3rd place votes are going to play a larger role than in previous years IMO..Westbrook is going to be a very polarizing choice, since his historically great season(triple double + by far the most valuable player in the NBA in terms of impact compared to teammates) is going to be negated by the 7th seed in the eyes of many voters(only Moses Malone won MVP with an unimpressive record IIRC)..
If OKC cracks 50 wins(which they won't, since their team is horribly constructed), then I could see Westbrook getting it..
Is it the same voters for DPOY & MVP, or all in general?
Wouldn't it be something if they don't give Kawhi MVP but decide to vote him DPOY as a consolation prize? The meltdown from Green & co. would be glorious
It's a mix of media members..some of them vote for both, others don't..
seriouslyNobody is looking at RPM as a primary measure for MVP voting
just another one of mid's ty takes.
Exactly...I mean, look what last night did for him. I've heard more talk of Kawhi being MVP in the past 24 hours than I had heard the entire season prior
Nobody is looking at RPM as a primary measure for MVP voting
Narrative is the most important criteria for MVP, which has been the case for a long time..Kawhi's "narrative" case is growing with games like last night..if he has 2 huge games vs. the Warriors, he'll actually have a legit shot IMO..
The Cavaliers game is also huge.
Yep..Exactly...I mean, look what last night did for him. I've heard more talk of Kawhi being MVP in the past 24 hours than I had heard the entire season prior
- Best player on the best team
- Head-to-head matchups vs. other candidates
- National TV games, especially with key moments or clutch shots
- New system or loss of a key teammate(both true for Harden and Westbrook)
- Team struggling without player(Lebron)
- Historic statistical achievement(averaging a triple double)
It's usually a combination of those traits, the last one being least relevant, since it doesn't occur very often IMO..
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