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going in.
I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...
1. LaMarcus isn't playing that well. He had trouble with DeAndre and Marc Gasol is just a better version than DeAndre. LMA has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the former DPOY.
2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.
3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.
4. Gasol played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.
5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive season -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.
6. LMA, Dedmon, and Joel Anthony are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.
7. Patty ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.
8. Does Simmons or Kyle have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?
9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.
10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from beating most of the good teams? Probably not. Is struggling with a Thunder team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.
I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)
Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.
I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.
going in.
You missed Memphis in 4.
As a person who routinely bets on games, I'd have a hard time taking Grizzlies money line in any of the games, unless it was at least +200 and at home.
Forgot to replace Heat with Cavs tbh
Forgot to replace Heat with Cavs tbh
We have Kawhi and the Grizz struggle with him tbh.
Our threes have to fall, our bigs have to do enough to neutralize their bigs and Kawhi has to be Kawhi. If we cant be what our potential is, it doesnt matter who the team is.
we just have to see ,no point of being negative now when the playoffs haven't even started .
hopefully manu doesn't break his hand, elbow before the series starts.
OMG some of the posters in this thread
It's the ing Grizzlies, tbh.
Didn't we swept them last year?
The Phoenix.
I know you are parodying Timvp's 2013 post but your prediction is absolutely right...We aren't beating Memphis...
Grizz will be a tough out. They don't get far in the playoffs, but for the most part, they rough you up and make you beat them; they always give energy.
I was banging my head trying to remember this. I thought it was referring to one of the Heat series or maybe OKC but yes it was Memphis.
Spurs are a slightly better version of the 2013 Grizzlies right now so it should be evenly matched.
Spurs-
ORtg-111.4 (7th)
DRtg-103.3 (1st)
Memphis
ORtg-107.8 (17th)
DRtg-107.0 (6th)
Spurs starting lineup is scoring 102 points per 100 possessions (awful) but they are allowing 93.9 points per 100 possessions (fantastic)
It won't be pretty but I don't see how Memphis can score against our starting unit. Memphis' defense has been pretty poor post all star break but they do have Allen to throw on Leonard but I don't expect a repeat of '11
That Grizzles team didn't have a player of Leonard's magnitude, nor where they as good of an offensive team, or as talented,
Will Murray be cleared to play?
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