Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP

[FuzzyLumpkins]

but the la times poll result happens to mirror ibd which is solid. Same with ppp. Also nate silver gave la times an A-, so soemthing is definitely going on. Are you aware that Wikileaks revealed possible collision between pollsters? A +12 dem bias can't be taken seriously. Dem enthusiasm is down, evidenced by early voting. She would have to crush obamas 08 turnout for any of this to make sense.

Early voting doesn't indicate that. Early voting is showing a larger turnout of women. This makes sense considering the first ever female candidate up against the pig.

538 considers all the polls and adjusts for bias. He has HRC at 8:1 odds to win and averaging a 7 point advantage.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/1...-states-230176

Early voting shows upsurge of women

In three crucial battlegrounds — North Carolina, Florida and Georgia — women are casting early ballots in disproportionate numbers. And in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump with detailed early voting data available, it’s clear that Democratic women have been particularly motivated to turn out or turn ballots in.

In North Carolina, 87,000 Democratic women have already moved to cast early ballots compared with just 60,000 Republican women, according to data shared with POLITICO by J. Michael Bitzer, an expert on North Carolina’s early vote at Catawba College. Men in the state, meanwhile, are closely divided: 50,000 Republicans and 52,000 Democrats have voted.

“That’s certainly an energy and mobilization indicator this early for the Clinton campaign and Democrats down ballot,” Bitzer said.

In Florida, Daniel Smith, an early-voting expert at the University of Florida, noted that about 55 percent of the 880,000 people who voted as of the end of the day Wednesday are women, even though women make up less than 53 percent of the state’s registered voters. And in Georgia, a new poll on Friday showed Clinton leading Trump by 5 percentage points among early voters — despite trailing Trump narrowly among likely voters — after a noticeable bump in early voting among women.

“I could see, the week following the first debate, the percentage of women requesting ballots increased in both North Carolina and Georgia,” said Michael McDonald, another early vote expert who runs the United States Elections Project.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I actually like the GOP echo chamber consumers wishcasting.

Worked real well last election.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

[baseline bum]

I just cast my vote. Looks like black voters are definitely turning out in my district.

[Spurminator]

Early Voting: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireS...inton-42982907

Early voting is surging in Arizona, another state Trump can't afford to lose. Arizona has long been reliably Republican, but Clinton is targeting it.More than 1.9 million ballots have been requested and 36,000 returned. That's more than triple the 10,800 ballots returned during a similar period in 2012.
Democrats have a 44 percent to 31 percent lead over Republicans in ballots returned. Another 25 percent were independent or unknown. At this point in 2012, Democrats had a narrower 38 percent to 35 percent lead, according to Catalist.
While figures are preliminary, Tranter, the Republican analyst, said Arizona had become compe ive.
"It's close," Tranter said.

[baseline bum]

Damn the GOP should have made Cruz or Kasich fight it out with Trump until the convention.

[DMC]

les thread "Election Update"

Posts opinion piece.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

les thread "Election Update"

Posts opinion piece.

It's the le of the article, dim. You must be having a bad day. You are particularly butthurt today.

Nevermind the article is chock full of empirical polling data.

[DMC]

Click bait snares another, propagates through surrogates..poses as "poling data" wrapped in a nice opinion piece Fuzzy happens to agree with, just to fool the auto-immune system.

Surrogate lashes out with ad hom.

Must be Monday.

[Axl Rose]

Dont know where you're getting your information but you might want to find someplace else to get solid info.

First of all the la poll has a republican bias to the tune of 6 points.

Ibd has also a republican bias although not as egregious as the la one.

As for early voting. Early returns look good for dems in North Carolina and Florida. 2 key states Trump has to have. No exceptions.

The last weekly poll showed the enthusiasm for democrats at an all time high of 83. Trump's went from 90 to 79. Huge drop off.

The sooner people come to terms with this the better off they'll be. This won't be a close election.

told you my polls had the best methodology, they are proven

[Axl Rose]

I wonder what's up with that IBT poll. They seem to be even more off than the LA Times one.

Desperation to make it seem closer, perhaps?

No they were just the only ones not lying

[Ed Lover]

Disaster!

[Spurtacular]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...r-for-the-gop/

The problem for Trump is that taken as a whole, his polls aren’t very good — and, in fact, they may still be getting worse. An ABC News national poll released on Sunday morning — the first live-caller poll conducted fully after the final presidential debate — showed Clinton leading Trump 50 percent to 38 percent. Clinton’s 12-point lead in that poll is toward the high end of a broad range of results from recent national polls,

12 pt. lead
Could spot that bull a mile away
Even Dem Messiah Obama at his height wasn't sniffing 12 pts.

[Spurtacular]

I meant Trumpfan is cherry picking a single poll and holding out hope because it was slightly more accurate when averaged over the last 3 presidential elections than the ones that have Clinton demolishing Trump.

Today's cuck.

[AaronY]

Derptacular's love of the laughing emoticons is approaching hater levels of derpery

[Spurtacular]

He was about to go campaigning with him until the "Grab them in the pussy" tape effectively ended the election

Trump effectively grabbing you by the pussy.

[AaronY]

Must be piping laughing gas into his AC vents or something

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The Comey letter came out a few days later and the polls changed. Spurtacular seems to not understand the notion of time.

I can remember telling MiG in the week of the election that the state polls all put together were now within the margin of error although Clinton was favored. She won the popular by 2.5m votes when the poll aggregate was at 3%.

Not sure what he thinks he is proving. No one disputes that Trump lost.

[DarrinS]

That bathroom server was a bad idea

[Spurtacular]

The Comey letter came out a few days later and the polls changed. Spurtacular seems to not understand the notion of time.

I can remember telling MiG in the week of the election that the state polls all put together were now within the margin of error although Clinton was favored. She won the popular by 2.5m votes when the poll aggregate was at 3%.

Not sure what he thinks he is proving. No one disputes that Trump lost.

Yea, we heard all about your made-up excuse for why that phony twelve percent lead didn't pan out. Comey had already nailed Clinton's ass to the wall in July. Wikileaks was killing Clinton daily. Nobody needed to be reminded that the Democrats had put up s for election.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Yea, we heard all about your made-up excuse for why that phony twelve percent lead didn't pan out. Comey had already nailed Clinton's ass to the wall in July. Wikileaks was killing Clinton daily. Nobody needed to be reminded that the Democrats had put up s for election.

Made up? We are talking about the 2 worst POTUS candidates in modern history. She stayed out of the news cycle and allowed Trump to hang himself as he still does in office. Comey was the one who was able to make her trustworthiness into in issue at the 11th hour and minds changed.

And Comey had said no charges earlier. Try and keep up.

[boutons_deux]

"She stayed out of the news cycle"

Pootin's weekly trickle kept Hillary/Podesta emails in the news. She couldn't get any traction, as MSM related every Trump word for the advertising bonanza.

[DMC]

Reck's pussy got wet as in this thread, bet that he/she was slapping the out of that fake clitoris.

[Spurtacular]

Made up? We are talking about the 2 worst POTUS candidates in modern history. She stayed out of the news cycle and allowed Trump to hang himself as he still does in office. Comey was the one who was able to make her trustworthiness into in issue at the 11th hour and minds changed.

And Comey had said no charges earlier. Try and keep up.

"Two worst candidates in modern history"
"Most qualified candidate ever"

Yea, you guys couldn't even pick a lie.