In '10, not only was Parker banged up, but the differential between their expected and actual record was 5.
I was steadfast that the core was good enough to win another championship until mid way through '14-'15, when it became clear it was over for Parker and to a lesser extent Ginobili.
Also, the hierarchy of the league was different (there was no overwhelmingly dominant team, that was going to remain so for the foreseeable future) and stylistically, they weren't behind the times.
This is different. Unless they can find a way to pull off a Walker trade now in the off season, I don't see any other feasible scenario that changes their outlook in the near future.