Chasing the Playoffs - Magic Numbers

[Robz4000]

So, do you think Pop wil try and go for the win in New Orleans. Or does he rest LMA, Manu and some others and give them a good break before the playoffs? Don't put it past him.

If they lose they meet the Dubs in the first round so he might want it that way.

[TXstbobcat]

So, do you think Pop wil try and go for the win in New Orleans. Or does he rest LMA, Manu and some others and give them a good break before the playoffs? Don't put it past him.

Dont think so. Won’t matter though since we never win in New Orleans. Thank Christ we clinched it tonight.

[YGWHI]

Blazers lost to Denver tonight. They weren't coasting, Lillard and McCollum, both guys played 40 minutes, they really wanted this game.

They're looking horrible...We can't face them in 1st round 'cause they're losing every f*cking game? It's not fair.

#GoRipCity vs Utah next game.

[TheDoctor]

I heard some bells coming

[BillMc]

I heard some bells coming

Obviously I only selected this image because the individual celebrating is wearing silver and black. (Or maybe white and black, who cares). It enlivens the Spurs spirit in all of us.

[Chinook]

Because OKC won tonight, we're rooting for a Jazz loss tomorrow. Right now, the Spurs are shut out of the third seed but can get the four seed in the following scenarios:

1) Utah wins out, SA beats NO and OKC somehow loses to Memphis -- Spurs would get the four-seed outright by having the fourth-best record in the West

2) Utah loses out, SA beats NO -- Utah and Portland don't factor into tie-breaks, meaning SA beats OKC through conference record

3) Utah loses tomorrow but beats Portland, OKC still finds a way to lose to Memphis -- OKC doesn't get to up the tie-break like they're currently doing, so SA, Utah and Portland tie for 3-5, with the Jazz getting 3, SA 4 and Portland 5.

As you can see, OKC is really mucking things up. They really can't improve their place much by winning unless teams ahead of them lose, so maybe they'll sit guys. Maybe they'll have one of their awful games. But either way, Utah losing tomorrow would drastically leave open the bottom two scenarios.

As far as likely opponents from each scenario, Portland can't be worse than fifth at this point. So in 1) and 3), the Spurs would get the Blazers. In 2) The Spurs would get either the 34-loss Thunder or the winner of the Minny/Denver game if OKC loses. Even in that scenario, I'd prefer OKC lose.

[BillMc]

Because OKC won tonight, we're rooting for a Jazz loss tomorrow. Right now, the Spurs are shut out of the third seed but can get the four seed in the following scenarios:

1) Utah wins out, SA beats NO and OKC somehow loses to Memphis -- Spurs would get the four-seed outright by having the fourth-best record in the West

2) Utah loses out, SA beats NO -- Utah and Portland don't factor into tie-breaks, meaning SA beats OKC through conference record

3) Utah loses tomorrow but beats Portland, OKC still finds a way to lose to Memphis -- OKC doesn't get to up the tie-break like they're currently doing, so SA, Utah and Portland tie for 3-5, with the Jazz getting 3, SA 4 and Portland 5.

As you can see, OKC is really mucking things up. They really can't improve their place much by winning unless teams ahead of them lose, so maybe they'll sit guys. Maybe they'll have one of their awful games. But either way, Utah losing tomorrow would drastically leave open the bottom two scenarios.

As far as likely opponents from each scenario, Portland can't be worse than fifth at this point. So in 1) and 3), the Spurs would get the Blazers. In 2) The Spurs would get either the 34-loss Thunder or the winner of the Minny/Denver game if OKC loses. Even in that scenario, I'd prefer OKC lose.

Thanks for doing this. What are the likely scenarios if we assume a loss at NO? Can we somehow do better than the 7th seed in that case?

[Play Boban]

0.

[YGWHI]

Since a win on the road against Pels is not likely to happen, I'll root for Blazers. I don't care about a higher seed, nor HCA against them.

Just want Blazers in first round. Doesn't matter how.

[Chinook]

Thanks for doing this. What are the likely scenarios if we assume a loss at NO? Can we somehow do better than the 7th seed in that case?

I don't think so. SA is good at most one-on-one tie-breaks, but they are terrible in most multi-team situations. Seventh seems to be their ceiling, with eight as the most likely.

[BillMc]

I don't think so. SA is good at most one-on-one tie-breaks, but they are terrible in most multi-team situations. Seventh seems to be their ceiling, with eight as the most likely.

Feared that. Thanks Then the team's gonna have to pull 'em up and try to win in Orleans.

[ElNono]

A loss at NO will very likely put the Spurs at 7th seed if Wolves beat Denver, or 8th seed if Denver beats the Wolves, provided that OKC beats Memphis at home, which seems likely.

If OKC loses, then the Spurs could leap to the 6th seed, again, provided that the Wolves beat Denver.

[ElNono]

Actually, what's the head to head with OKC? If the Spurs don't own that tiebreaker, it comes down to Division win %, and I think we lose there.

[ElNono]

Although the Spurs are currently above OKC on a multi-team tiebreaker...

[Chinook]

A loss at NO will very likely put the Spurs at 7th seed if Wolves beat Denver, or 8th seed if Denver beats the Wolves, provided that OKC beats Memphis at home, which seems likely.

If OKC loses, then the Spurs could leap to the 6th seed, again, provided that the Wolves beat Denver.

Nah, because the Wolves would actually jump SA and OKC in a three-way tie. Minny would have an H2H of 4-3, SA 4-3 and OKC 3-5. OKC would get the eighth seed, and Minny and SA would move on to the next tie-break of conference record, which Minny wins going away.

[Spurtacular]

Damn; good that the Spurs won tonight. T-Wolves and Nuggets weren't doing us any favors.

[Chinook]

Actually, what's the head to head with OKC? If the Spurs don't own that tiebreaker, it comes down to Division win %, and I think we lose there.

Comes down to conference record because SA and OKC aren't in the same division. The Spurs have that over the Thunder.

Although the Spurs are currently above OKC on a multi-team tiebreaker...

Some of them, but not all. OKC is the only (relevant) team to win a series with Utah this season, and that gives them some wiggle room over SA if those three teams end up in a tie.

[ElNono]

Nah, because the Wolves would actually jump SA and OKC in a three-way tie. Minny would have an H2H of 4-3, SA 4-3 and OKC 3-5. OKC would get the eighth seed, and Minny and SA would move on to the next tie-break of conference record, which Minny wins going away.

Thanks. Spurs just have a terrible conference record, tbh

[Chinook]

Because OKC won tonight, we're rooting for a Jazz loss tomorrow. Right now, the Spurs are shut out of the third seed but can get the four seed in the following scenarios:

1) Utah wins out, SA beats NO and OKC somehow loses to Memphis -- Spurs would get the four-seed outright by having the fourth-best record in the West

2) Utah loses out, SA beats NO -- Utah and Portland don't factor into tie-breaks, meaning SA beats OKC through conference record

3) Utah loses tomorrow but beats Portland, OKC still finds a way to lose to Memphis -- OKC doesn't get to up the tie-break like they're currently doing, so SA, Utah and Portland tie for 3-5, with the Jazz getting 3, SA 4 and Portland 5.

As you can see, OKC is really mucking things up. They really can't improve their place much by winning unless teams ahead of them lose, so maybe they'll sit guys. Maybe they'll have one of their awful games. But either way, Utah losing tomorrow would drastically leave open the bottom two scenarios.

As far as likely opponents from each scenario, Portland can't be worse than fifth at this point. So in 1) and 3), the Spurs would get the Blazers. In 2) The Spurs would get either the 34-loss Thunder or the winner of the Minny/Denver game if OKC loses. Even in that scenario, I'd prefer OKC lose.

Incidentally, I find a lot of this irrelevant right now. If SA wins and Portland loses, then SA has HCA in the first round no matter what OKC and Utah do. While everything I said above is true for seeding, HCA is reevaluated after the bracket is established. This means that even if Portland gets the four-seed and SA five, SA's H2H win over Portland gives them HCA in that series. The same would be true for OKC and Utah. If all four of those teams ended up tied, the first games of the opening round would be (3) Jazz AT (6) Thunder and (4) Blazers AT (5) Spurs.

More at: http://www.nba.com/2015/news/09/08/nba-to-seed-conference-playoff-teams-by-record/

[Dex]

Obviously I only selected this image because the individual celebrating is wearing silver and black. (Or maybe white and black, who cares). It enlivens the Spurs spirit in all of us.

I just noticed she is wearing clothes.

[bklynspursfan]

This is pretty cool.. I thought we still had a shot at HCA but guess not

https://www.lucidchart.com/do ents...5bcd0a004d18/0

[SAGirl]

So, do you think Pop wil try and go for the win in New Orleans. Or does he rest LMA, Manu and some others and give them a good break before the playoffs? Don't put it past him.

Go for the win. Those undermanned rest games end up in injuries for others in the team anyways.

[BillMc]

I just noticed she is wearing clothes.

[BillMc]

Go for the win. Those undermanned rest games end up in injuries for others in the team anyways.

I think they will though Pop may throw in the towel early if NO gets a big lead.

[FvckMavs]

This is pretty cool.. I thought we still had a shot at HCA but guess not

https://www.lucidchart.com/do ents...5bcd0a004d18/0

Looks like we will either get Blazers or Rockets.