I'd like to see how the Warriors would fare without a top 3 league player joining them. Spurs did not have Kobe, Dirk or LeBron hop on board in 2005 which is what has happened with Warriors (Durant). That being said that 2005 Spurs team I could see push Warriors with KD to 7 games, not sure who would win but they would make those Warriorettes earn it.
’99 team- today’s rules? Yes. Old rules? Mmmmmm, me thinks Ellie would make half the team cry. Duncan on green and S. ****** on Durant with David playing clean up... Avery would be exposed either set of rules though
’05 team destroys GSW. Who in the world guards Duncan? Bowen makes Durant beg to go back to OKC and Manu picks them apart. Curry has to defend prime Parker
Right. And reports have already come out saying both Danny and Rudy would do just that. Do you think we can find viable trading partners willing to take on Pau / Mills' contracts?
I think Mills would not be an issue; Pau could be done but it would likely require giving up the 18th pick in order to do so. Nothing is impossible and if Lebron truly wants to come to SA they will make it happen even if it cost a lot to dump those deals.
Where does Lebron play with Kawhi? PF? What about Aldridge? How about Milutinov’s role? The other issue is we’ll have 2 aging sidekicks next to Kawhi. How much longer can we expect a high level from Lebron? He’ll be 34 next year.
Kawhi can play SG
Our big lineup with lebron at SF and Kawhi at SG would dominate the league
not with both injured
None of that is a major concern as SA with Kawhi is trying to win now. LMA would play center, Bron PF, Kawhi SF but that’s just designated position.
Also Lebron will probably do what he always does and sign short term deal with options so long term is not a big issue. Not enough to pass on this at least.
After such a tough year it would be poetic justice to see something incredible happen for the Spurs. Seeing LeBron play next to Kawhi would be just the thing. Maybe a few folks will sicken on watching GSW cakewalk to another 'ship and decide to take them down.
The NBA needs something to give after Durant's move. Yesterday I read a really lame article on how unselfish Durant is for joining GSW. It was something his publicist must have cooked up because I'm fairly certain that that writer is the only asshole who sees it that way. Nary a mention that he joined a 73 win team for the easiest path to winning a ring.
Yeah, I hate to say it, but these Warriors are better than any team that the Spurs faced during their runs.
I'd love to see the imaginary matchup...but Dubs probably win as currently constructed.
Len Bias has a better chance of playing on the Spurs next year than LeBron tbh.
I just don’t see it. Those Spurs teams had mental toughness. They played in a few game 7’s. Played in several pressure situations. The Warriors have relied on other teams misfortunes (injuries), blowouts, and have shown the ability to crumble under real adversity (2016 vs Cavs, last year vs Spurs until Zaza injured Kawhi). They would punch the Warriors in the mouth repeatedly and the Warriors would get flustered. Duncan would destroy that frontcourt badly. Curry would be a non-factor with Bowen on him. Draymond would get abused by Duncan and I could see Horry getting in his head. The Warriors are a fantastic team, but punch them in the mouth and have a team like what those Spurs teams had, and they’d get exposed.
But what about the timing, though? Isn't the draft before free agency? We would have to know beforehand that LeBron would be willing to come to San Antonio before dumping Pau along with that pick, which of course, is impossible.
More to the point, ESPN's analysis says we would only need to dump Pau (not Mills) assuming Green and Gay opt out and we say goodbye to Parker.
I haven’t done the exact math but I am operating under 2 assumptions: Lebron wants the full max he can get and won’t take a penny less & will have a good pulse on Lebron heading into free agency.But what about the timing, though? Isn't the draft before free agency? We would have to know beforehand that LeBron would be willing to come to San Antonio before dumping Pau along with that pick, which of course, is impossible.
More to the point, ESPN's analysis says we would only need to dump Pau (not Mills) assuming Green and Gay opt out and we say goodbye to Parker.
I don’t think if SA gets rid of all their free agents and Danny/Rudy opt out that trading Pau gets them to Lebron’s max. It may be very close and it may not take trading Mills to get there, but there wouldn’t be many other choices and I doubt SA would want to trade younger players.
But even if SA doesn’t know by the time the draft rolls around about Lebron, they can trade future picks which would be more than enough. Trust me, if/when Lebron says “yes” SA will have no trouble off loading Pau and Mills if needed IMO.
Also, depending on Kawhi and what SA wants to do SA may very well look to dump Pau regardless so they have max cap space to rebuild around Kawhi or without him.
It’s definitely more likely that they don’t do anything like that before they get commitments but I can see them doing that regardless so they have a lot of cap space heading into free agency.
So I did the math (using the capulator):
If Danny & Rudy opt out and are renounced
If all free agents are renounced (Tony Parker, Kyle Anderson, Bryn Forbes, Davis Bertans, Hilliard, Costello)
If BP3 is waived (non-guaranteed deal)
If SA defers Milutinov to the following year
If SA trades Pau + 2019 first to a team like ATL for nothing back salary wise
SA will have Kawhi, LMA, Mills, Manu, Joff, White & Murray under contract and will be at 69M in salaries including the charge for the 18th pick this year and cap holds for roster spots.
The salary cap is 101M, so 101M - 69M = 32M in cap space.
Lebron’s max is like 35.5M so SA would be about 3.5M short.
So what ESPN said was not meant to be fully accurate; it was just a high level example of the type of moves SA would have to make.
So Lebron could take less so SA doesn’t have to move other assets.
SA could trade the 2018 pick in the Pau deal vs 2019 and get another 2M in cap space and get close to max.
But if Lebron wants every penny, then SA would have to either trade the 2018 pick in the Pau deal instead of 2019 and then move either Mills, Murray, White or Joff (or if Joff unexpectedly declines his player option, just doing everything above but trading 2018 first instead of 2019 would get SA to full max).
The biggest “hinge” is Danny & Rudy. If they opt out, the path becomes far easier. If they dont then it’s much tougher.
Thanks a lot for running the math! This is really helpful.
All reports suggest Gay and Green will opt out, so I don't think that will be an issue.
ESPN is also reporting that the Spurs will extend qualifying offers to Anderson, Forbes, and Bertans. Does that mean their cap holds will eat into our cap space? But even then, we can renounce them later if LeBron says yes, right? And if we do, would we be able to sign them again after?
I doubt the Spurs trade the 2018 pick, since they won't give up such a high pick for nothing if they don't have assurances from LeBron. I think it's more likely that they attach the 2019 pick to dump Pau's contract.
So to get to the full max, given the scenario you outlined, we would indeed have to move Mills since I doubt we'll be willing to part with our younger players. On the bright side, that should give us enough room to offer LeBron the full max and use the space left over to bring in Milutinov and other free agents. Then fill out the rest of the roster with minimum players.
So our roster could be like this:
PG: Murray, White, Forbes
SG: Leonard, Ginobili, FA filler
SF: James, 18th pick / FA filler, FA filler
PF: Aldridge, Lauvergne, FA filler
C: Milutinov, 18th pick / FA filler, FA filler
What a horrible written comment fron such a knowledgable Spurs fan. Oh look...another high pressure situation and the Warriors the bed. This team SUCKS at handling REAL adversity. Luckily Houston didn’t outchoke them, but go kill yourself for putting this team above those spurs teams, got.
What reports? I haven't seen anything about either of them...
What makes the most sense for Lebron is to tell Ainge that if he trades Irving the away for Kawhi, he signs with them.
Lebron, Kawhi, Brown, Tatum, Horford, Stevens.
Rozier, Smart, Hayward, Morris, Baynes off the bench.
Not possible. Trading Kawhi for Kyrie is possible, but they don’t have any cap space to sign Lebron. The only way that Lebron and Kawhi end up in BOS is if Danny trades for both.
Lebron for Hayward. Done.
That is correct. Most teams extend the QO, but that can be taken away as soon as SA needed to. But the cap holds do eat into the cap space until they formally withdraw the QO and then renounce them. That doesn’t stop SA from re-signing them but they would only have their cap space and any exceptions to do so which limits them after signing Bron.
Totally possible and I agree; that’s why I used the 2019 1st rounder as the pick traded. But I can see SA wanting to trade Pau regardless to change things up. But also reasons why keeping him and not dumping your 18th pick makes sense in scenarios depending on how things with Kawhi shape up.I doubt the Spurs trade the 2018 pick, since they won't give up such a high pick for nothing if they don't have assurances from LeBron. I think it's more likely that they attach the 2019 pick to dump Pau's contract.
Trading Mills makes it so you can keep the young guys and have some cap space left over (like 7M) to sign more players. Definitely the “best” path, but also not necessarily mandatory if you want max cap space in these scenariosSo to get to the full max, given the scenario you outlined, we would indeed have to move Mills since I doubt we'll be willing to part with our younger players. On the bright side, that should give us enough room to offer LeBron the full max and use the space left over to bring in Milutinov and other free agents. Then fill out the rest of the roster with minimum players.
So our roster could be like this:
PG: Murray, White, Forbes
SG: Leonard, Ginobili, FA filler
SF: James, 18th pick / FA filler, FA filler
PF: Aldridge, Lauvergne, FA filler
C: Milutinov, 18th pick / FA filler, FA filler
For sure, was just saying they can’t have that team you outlined because they have to trade for Kawhi and Bron.
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