So I did the math (using the capulator):
If Danny & Rudy opt out and are renounced
If all free agents are renounced (Tony Parker, Kyle Anderson, Bryn Forbes, Davis Bertans, Hilliard, Costello)
If BP3 is waived (non-guaranteed deal)
If SA defers Milutinov to the following year
If SA trades Pau + 2019 first to a team like ATL for nothing back salary wise
SA will have Kawhi, LMA, Mills, Manu, Joff, White & Murray under contract and will be at 69M in salaries including the charge for the 18th pick this year and cap holds for roster spots.
The salary cap is 101M, so 101M - 69M = 32M in cap space.
Lebron’s max is like 35.5M so SA would be about 3.5M short.
So what ESPN said was not meant to be fully accurate; it was just a high level example of the type of moves SA would have to make.
So Lebron could take less so SA doesn’t have to move other assets.
SA could trade the 2018 pick in the Pau deal vs 2019 and get another 2M in cap space and get close to max.
But if Lebron wants every penny, then SA would have to either trade the 2018 pick in the Pau deal instead of 2019 and then move either Mills, Murray, White or Joff (or if Joff unexpectedly declines his player option, just doing everything above but trading 2018 first instead of 2019 would get SA to full max).
The biggest “hinge” is Danny & Rudy. If they opt out, the path becomes far easier. If they dont then it’s much tougher.