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tarriffs are a blunt instrument. the division between steel companies and aluminum companies on tarriffs is instructive: industries with large foreign inputs get kicked right in the profits.
Trump Tariffs Trash Companies in Mike Pence’s Indiana Hometown
The Washington Post has reported that Vice President Mike Pence’s hometown of
Columbus, Indiana will be one of the hardest hit communities in the United States after President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs go into effect.
According to the Post, the reason for this is that a Brookings Ins ution analysis found that
Pence’s hometown is the metro area most reliant on exports in the entire country.
One-half of the Columbus economy — or gross domestic product — is made up of exports to other countries.
“Mike Pence’s hometown of Columbus, Indiana, is the most export-reliant region in the country.
Now, it’s among the areas most vulnerable to job losses from Donald Trump’s international trade war.”
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/07...iticus+USA+%29
tarriffs are a blunt instrument. the division between steel companies and aluminum companies on tarriffs is instructive: industries with large foreign inputs get kicked right in the profits.
I'm interviewing with a major steel and metals org tomorrow for an analyst gig. They are a foreign company with a significant US footprint. Should provide some interesting perspective on the current tariff brouhaha.
Wall Street braces for tariff fallout as S&P 500 companies report
Tariffs are starting to bite big manufacturers and Wall Street could get another bout of caution and uncertainty from major industrial companies when a swath of reports comes in over the next week.
Investors are worried about the impact on earnings should the United States’ trade war with China and other major trading partners escalate.
Deutsche Bank in June estimated that an escalation of the dispute to include $200 billion of imports would hit earnings growth by 1-1.5 percent.
“If today’s political rhetoric intensifies and translates into actual protectionist policies, it will be a negative for all businesses in the U.S. and abroad, including ours,”
starting to show up in early reports by companies. Earnings from Honeywell International (HON.N), General Electric (GE.N) and Stanley Black & Decker (SWK.N) show companies facing higher costs due to already enacted tariffs, and uncertainty about tariffs on as much as $500 billion in Chinese goods threatened by Trump.
GE said it expects tariffs on its imports from China to raise its costs by up to $400 million and Alcoa (AA.N) said the tariffs led to an extra $15 million in costs.
Second-quarter corporate earnings seasons kicks into gear starting on Monday, with results on tap from companies including Corning (GLW.N), Ford Motor (F.N), 3M Co (MMM.N) and Boeing (BA.N), which has fallen nearly 2 percent since the start of March.
The United States in March said it would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum, and on July 1, Washington and Beijing applied tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s goods.
Trump has threatened additional tariffs, possibly targeting more than $500 billion worth of Chinese goods – roughly the total amount of U.S. imports from China last year.
Since March 1, S&P 500 industrials .SPLRCI have fallen nearly 3 percent, reflecting the sector’s dependence on international commerce.
The S&P 1500 steel index .SPCOMSTEEL has lost 1 percent since March 1, as investors worry that a slowdown in global demand could offset U.S. steelmakers’ benefits from tariffs against their foreign compe ors.
“There are companies that might not be significantly impacted by tariffs from a cost perspective, but
from the uncertainty around it,”
“They could see customers holding off on spending because
they don’t know what is going to happen.”
Qualcomm, reporting on July 25, depends on China for two thirds of its revenue. The U.S. chipmaker is also facing a drawn-out wait for Chinese regulators to approve its $44 billion takeover of NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.O), a delay widely seen as connected to the trade conflict.
“The market is looking through Trump’s trade negotiations and governing style because of this strength.
However, we are more cautious on the trade overhang and think
headline risk, both to the upside and downside, will remain high,”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/wall-street-braces-tariff-fallout-sp-500-companies-report/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaig n=Feed%3A+TheRawStory+%28The+Raw+Story%29
Still early, but certainly by year end, we'll see the damage Trash is doing to the economy and world trade
dead meat, days or weeks old, yum, It's What's For Dinner
2.5 Billion Pounds of Meat Piles Up in U.S. as Production Grows, Exports Slow
Profits, prices are threatened as record amounts of red meat and poultry fill U.S. warehouses
Meat is piling up in U.S. cold-storage warehouses,
fueled by a surge in supplies and
trade disputes that are eroding demand.
Federal data, coming as early as Monday, are expected to show a record level of beef, pork, poultry and turkey being stockpiled in U.S.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-pi...low-1532268000
77,000/123,000,000Nice anecdote. Too lazy to research or understand the big picture as usual and immediately running to yourmuh morals
Coolness. Let us know how it goes.
The Finance 202: Trump is creating his own economic reality
President Trump is operating in an economic reality of his own creation that has left him both increasingly emboldened and isolated as he escalates trade hostilities over the objections of key aides and allies.
And the president is set to take things from bad to worse this week.
Trump continues to insist all is well at home.
And he continues to believe his trade offensive provides a winning issue for his party in the midterms.
The world beyond his blinders looks very different.
The S&P 500 is up 31 percent since Trump’s election, but it has slowed considerably, gaining 4.9 percent this year,
As for growth in the quarter that ended last month, economists also expect to see a big number post this week.
Yet they chalk it up to a flurry by companies bracing for higher tariffs.
Most significantly for Trump and his party,
the metric most important to the most voters — their own paychecks — isn't offering the same good news.
Worker pay actually fell by a nearly a full percentage point in the second quarter,
“The drop was broad, with 80 percent of industries and two-thirds of metro areas affected.”
Trump is whistling past these warning signals, leaving his aides scrambling to rein him in and clean up his latest pronouncements.
The president continues to favor imposing tariffs of up to 25 percent on autos and parts — a position opposed even by hawkish U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer, Politico’s Ben White reports:
“The auto industry, Republicans in Congress, U.S. trading partners and even some of Trump’s top advisers argue that the tariffs could be major political and economic negatives.
As one White House official tells them,
“It’s not like you are going to change his mind.
So we just have to message it the right way.”
allies who otherwise agree that China has engaged in abusive behavior nevertheless fear the president is stumbling forward without a plan. “We’re playing Russian roulette with the American economy,”
“The administration has a tool that they think provides leverage over other countries.
But I don’t think it has a good strategy for getting a deal done.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.12ba3ea3c765
They did NOT want to talk tarrifs. One of them started to mention it and the VP shut him the down.
I guess I'll have to wait and see if I picked up the gig before I'm able to gather any perspective. But they were certainly touchy.
U.S. sets hearing dates for proposed new tariffs on Chinese goods
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1KD1VF
That is what I thought would happen. They are terrified of offending anyone one way or another. Ultimately they benefit, but at the expense of their customers' bottom line.They did NOT want to talk tarrifs. One of them started to mention it and the VP shut him the down.
I guess I'll have to wait and see if I picked up the gig before I'm able to gather any perspective. But they were certainly touchy.
ALL steel prices pretty much surged, so the American steel makers are making money hand over first at this point, because they were already mostly profitable, but being able to instantly sell your product at another 25% profit margin, is PURE profit.
White House readies plan for $12 billion in emergency aid to farmers caught in Trump’s escalating trade war
the latest sign that growing tensions between the United States and other countries will not end soon.
Trump ordered Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue to prepare a range of options several months ago,
amid complaints from farmers that their products faced retaliatory tariffs from China and other countries.
The new package of government assistance funds will be announced Tuesday and is expected to go into effect by Labor Day.
The aid package is expected to target
soybean farmers, dairy farmers, and pork producers, among others.
White House officials hope it will quiet some of the unease from farm groups,
but the new plan could
revive debates about taxpayer-funded bailouts
and
the degree to which Trump’s trade strategy is leading to unforeseen costs.
Farm groups have complained
that moves by China and other countries in response to Trump’s protectionist trade stance
could cost them billions of dollars,
spooking Republicans who fear a political and economic blowback to Trump’s approach.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...nl_most&wpmm=1
Trash s up and wastes Other People's Money to try to un his up.
6 bankruptcy up, and US banks said You
I'm sure BigAg and BigChem will be scamming $100Ms of taxpayers' bailout
Gov't assistance bad now?
How is adding 3% to total 2018 welfare spending lost $Bs?
What will the net utility loss to overall US consumers be?
Current year economic growth is pegged at 4%. How many of those jobs would have occurred regardless of tariffs due to organic growth in domestic demand?
Steel consumers in the US will not be able to avoid increased costs. Domestic manufacturers raised prices.
How many construction projects will be affected by increased rebar costs?
https://www.thehortongroup.com/resou...n-constructionFor manufacturers of heavy equipment such as Caterpillar Inc. and Deere & Co., JP Morgan analysts predict that the tariffs could dent their fiscal 2019 earnings by 6 percent and 9 percent respectively. Steel is the largest raw materials cost for both companies.
The National Association of Home Builders has spoken out against the tariffs as it’s still recovering from the Canadian lumber tariffs of 2017. It claims that higher steel costs would raise construction costs, which could eventually be passed on to homebuyers.
Why should those steel jobs be more important than jobs at Caterpillar?
https://rebusinessonline.com/how-wil...ruction-labor/WASHINGTON, D.C. — With virtually all construction costs tied to either materials or labor, President Donald Trump’s tariffs on two key building supplies could further exacerbate the construction industry’s longtime worker shortage, according to industry experts.
But there’s more at stake than short-term increases in materials costs. By forcing construction firms to allocate more operating income toward materials, the tariffs are likely to prevent firms from offering higher wages to attract more labor.
Seems like anyone who builds things for a living is going to take a hit to their bottom line.
Homeowners, cities, states, etc.
Also from the above article:
Immediate labor impact
A recent study from Trade Partnership Worldwide LLC, a Washington, D.C.-based economic consulting firm, estimates that the tariffs will generate an overall net loss of 146,000 jobs. The report also notes that across all impacted sectors
there will be five jobs lost for every new job gained.
Not many in the near term:
Current indicators suggest that the present level of construction across the US will continue strong through the remainder of 2018 and into 2019. Many of our contacts in the industry have reported that they expect this volume of construction to level off and slowdown beginning late 2019 to early 2020. Once this happens, demand should reduce, effectively alleviating price pressure points for steel as well as other materials.
https://archinect.com/news/article/1...t-into-context
the loss is gratuitously CREATED by Trash and economic kakistocracy, destroying business by Trash's policies.
emergency welfare for farmers is a nakedly political move, and you say 3% as if that were a small amount. it's not.
if DJT had to support every sector that's negatively affected by tariffs, the cost would quickly get out of hand.
Caterpillar adding heads -
Arkansas + 250 Jobs and $40M investiment (http://www.nwaonline.com/news/2018/j...iness-arkansas)
So you're against government assistance?
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