ESPN Summer Forecast: Spurs projected to miss playoffs

[gambit1990]

nuggets, pelicans, wolves over spurs

espn should just give me money to smoke weed and type behind a keyboard.

[tbdog]

Are ESPN just setting up for the 'We are wrong about the Spurs again.' I mean, this is terrible. It is not that we are replacing a injured player with an allstar that is always very healthy, but we are likely going into pre season healthy. Gay was our third leading scorer and was coming back from a serious injury. He was on injury management. Parker was out for the first few months. We are likely going into the season with Manu as the only one on some stamina management program, where he sits out on back to backs. Apart from that, everyone is locked and loaded. Murray and Bertans will be better. We are pretty deep all round because we can rely on more guys playing big minutes due to injury concerns. We have a liable backup big now from the trade. Our shooting improved. The biggest issue is the backup SF. We are winning 50 games this season.

[Stabula]

Spurs will be the 4 seed being pessimistic

[Chinook]

Eh, the Spurs' Pythagorean win-loss record was 49-33 last season -- they actually underperformed record-wise.

The issue is more that advanced statistical models had Kyle Anderson as the best or second best player on the team. The models say that losing him will be a huge blow.

The models also suggest that guys like LMA and DeRozan are neutral or negative in terms of impact on winning. It's fallacious. Maybe they aren't efficient enough to be an elite team or to dominate in the playoffs consistently, but in terms of getting the team up to a baseline in talent, they're about as good as anyone. We all saw how critical Aldridge was to winning last season, but most models predicted and continue to predict that he was putting up empty stats.

[bigfan]

ESPN is welcome to predict the number of hairs on my ass.

[JPB]

Should have sent ESPN some AEP tbh.

If you put the spurs aside, these predictions are just terrible and only based on statistic models totally ignoring external facts such as answering new expectations (or pressure if you prefer, over performing or dynamics.

Its one thing to over perfom when you're not necessarily planned to. Its another when fans, media, the club, friends start to put pressure on you and talk about top seeds, WCF or even ship (I'm thinking Utah or Denver here).

It's also funny as people only take Kwitter's absence from a statistical pov and totally ignore the psychological impact and incertainty that certainly cost them some games.

It totally ed up the hierarchy and put people out of their role with the team lost a the end of games without any clear closer, Manu having to take over and play more than expected, Mills trying to do too much and fumbling a few games, LMA without any help on offense to escape double teams.

With 2 clear offensive options + an hopefully closer to 100% gay + an intriguing Poetl in the middle, it should take pressure off of the role players focusing in their tasks (Sly, Mills, Dijon, forbe$, Berta, Lonnie).

Spurs 3pt% and total 3pts shots should significantly improve this year.

And there's that Pop guy on hte bench.

In short, spurs definitely make the PO. The more I think about it, the more I see them as high as 3-4.

[John B]

I agree, and Spurs will be playing a chip on their shoulder. They will surprise a lot of teams

[spurs50_]

Spurs coming out of the gate kicking ass.....we'll make the playoffs, no doubt.

[objective]

If LMA is healthy all year ... And then Murray and White play at least 75 games each and average at least a combined 55 minutes, I think they can win at is least 55

[Dex]

Eh, the Spurs' Pythagorean win-loss record was 49-33 last season -- they actually underperformed record-wise.

The issue is more that advanced statistical models had Kyle Anderson as the best or second best player on the team. The models say that losing him will be a huge blow.

To me, this just comes off as a case of trying to make game about the stats instead of the stats being about the game.

Slomo had a good season for his standards, but being "our 2nd best player" is a moreso a testament to how poorly the rest of the team performed. Manu played limited minutes and everyone else played like hot garbage a lot of the time. If Kyle Anderson is ranking as your second best player...you're gonna have a bad time.

Yes, losing Anderson will hurt. But we should be able to count on improvement from Murray's development, the additions of Derozan, White and Beli, Gay being healthy, and Mills (hopefully) finding a way to not suck as bad as he did last year. Losing Parker and Joff should also end up being addition by subtraction (sorry Tony), and we've got the stable of rooks and young bucks (Poetl, Lonnie, Metu) who may be able to act as wild cards.

I know these are all unknowns that advanced stat models don't (and can't) take into consideration, but that's why I don't like them. It's not like we just took last year's team, subtracted Kyle, and are throwing them onto the court.

[YGWHI]

These guys are betting against the Spurs since I can't remember. I'll laugh so hard when the Spurs get #2 seed in the West...

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

The West is going to be tougher this year. I think a lot of teams got better. Even some of the non-playoff teams should have better records....Phoenix, Dallas, Memphis. It's going to be tough to earn one of the 8 spots.

[mo7888]

I expect 53 wins with the roster as currently constructed.

[iGetbuckets]

The spurs aren’t missing the playoffs lol

[BD24]

I still don’t understand why everyone is so high on OKC tbh. They really love fluffing Russ tbh.

[RD2191]

I still don’t understand why everyone is so high on OKC tbh. They really love fluffing Russ tbh.

Media loves scrubs tbh

[BD24]

Spurs will finish somewhere in between what the media thinks and what the homers here think.

somewhere between the 4-6 seed with anywhere from 47-52 wins sounds about right.

[TimmyBuckets]

If Spurs get 55 or more and end up 2-3 seed (which I don't think will happen), Pop should get COY

[Russ]

Spurs will finish somewhere in between what the media thinks and what the homers here think.

somewhere between the 4-6 seed with anywhere from 47-52 wins sounds about right.

I'll go 45-54 (adding some leeway).

The 43 win over-under in Vegas looks like one of the better bets in recent memory.

Problem is, about 10-15 years ago I bet over on Spurs season wins in Vegas then couldn't find the ticket -- dirty little secret, Vegas counts on that and factors it in.

[rjv]

the spurs not only won 47 games in spite of the injury to leonard but in spite of all the drama centered around the whole leonard scenario all year long. also, rudy gay missed significant time as well. to argue that the 47 games won was fortunate is just being biased in order to bend the argument in the favor of the "analysts".

[RD2191]

the spurs not only won 47 games in spite of the injury to leonard but in spite of all the drama centered around the whole leonard scenario all year long. also, rudy gay missed significant time as well. to argue that the 47 games won fortunate is just being biased in order to bend the argument in the favor of the "analysts".

Not to mention the illness/passing off Pop's wife. He really deserves more credit for what he did last season tbh.

[pad300]

ESPN ain't the only ones projecting the Spurs to miss the playoffs:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...t-next-season/

[Pavlov]

There's so much uncertainty going into this season I can see how pundits can talk themselves into putting the Spurs in the lottery. It's easier to bet on Thibodeau's team imploding due to injuries and/or infighting IMO.

[timvp]

The models also suggest that guys like LMA and DeRozan are neutral or negative in terms of impact on winning. It's fallacious. Maybe they aren't efficient enough to be an elite team or to dominate in the playoffs consistently, but in terms of getting the team up to a baseline in talent, they're about as good as anyone. We all saw how critical Aldridge was to winning last season, but most models predicted and continue to predict that he was putting up empty stats.

[sananspursfan21]

So they’re not a “Moneyball” team. Big whoop. Also, several teams predicted to make the playoffs are total ‘wtf’s. IMHO they’re way overhyping the Jazz...