Analysts Debunk the White House's Myth of the Booming 'Trump Economy'
Trump thinks he's created a booming economy all on his own.
During President Barack Obama’s last 19 months in office, the economy added an average of 208,000 jobs a month;
during President Trump’s first 19 months in office, it’s added an average of 189,000 jobs a month.
During Obama’s last 19 months, the share of 25- to-54-year olds who have a job rose 1.1 percentage points;
during Trump’s first 19 months, it rose 0.9 percentage points.
During Obama’s last 19 months, wage growth went up 0.3 percentage points;
during Trump’s first 19 months, wage growth went up 0.2 percentage points.
These are the facts that the Trump administration seems to think it can transform into evidence that it’s made the recovery better than it was before.
the trends tell basically one story:
the economy under Trump has essentially been a continuation of the economy under Obama.
Some of the changes the White House attributes to Trump, he continued, are more plausibly attributable to other factors.
"The Trump administration likes to think that investment has gone up because of the magic of the Republicans' big corporate tax cuts. But the reality is a lot more mundane: It’s oil," he wrote.
"Drilling, you see, makes up a big part of business investment, so it should be no surprise that it flatlined after oil prices collapsed in 2014 and then rebounded after prices went up in 2016.
It’s possible that the tax cuts will eventually increase investment, but they haven’t so far."
"One of the most baffling parts of Hassett’s presentation was his attempt to show that the job market had vastly improved, using the employment rate among 25- to 54-year-olds," explained Weissman.
"If you take a longer view, and
use the actual employment rate rather than a rolling average, it’s hard to see any noticeable change in the trend after November 2016."
"The White House economic team does not actually want to admit that it has juiced growth through fiscal stimulus,
because most dedicated conservatives still insist that stimulus doesn’t really work,"
"Instead, it wants to credit deregulation and the effects of tax cuts on business investment rather than their impact on household spending.
https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-po...-trump-economy