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Appreciate the observations... Positive or negative they are way too early bc thing will even out with more games both ways but it's good yo gets snapshot of where they are.
DeMar DeRozan DoMinating
Three games into his Spurs career, it's safe to say DeMar DeRozan is surpassing expectations. His box score stats are impressive: 29.3 points per game, 9.0 assists, 5.0 rebounds and a 3.9 assist-to-turnover ratio. But even more important is that he has successfully supercharged San Antonio's offense. The Spurs are averaging 118.2 points per 100 possessions, the second best mark in the league. Considering the all-time record for offensive rating is 115.6 by the 1986-87 Showtime Lakers, to say the Spurs are off to a hot start would be an understatement.
DeRozan has a history leading elite offensive teams. Last season, he was the most impactful offensive player on a Toronto Raptors team that had the league's second best offense. On the other end of the spectrum, the Spurs offensive rating was 107.0 last season, which was ranked 17th in the NBA.
Enter DeMar Derozan.
Offensive Rating When On The Court
DeRozan: 122.8
Aldridge: 121.6
Mills: 118.9
Belinelli: 115.8
Gasol: 114.2
Gay: 113.2
Forbes: 113.0
Poeltl: 109.8
Bertans: 107.1
Cunningham: 106.2
When DeRozan has gone to the bench, San Antonio's offense has fallen off a cliff to an offensive rating of 100.6. Yes, the sample size is tiny but so far this season, the Spurs have the greatest offense of all-time when DeRozan is on the court -- and what would be the worst offense in the league when he's on the bench.
From a scouting perspective, DeRozan has looked like a perfect fit for the James Harden-esque playmaking role the coaching staff has him playing. He has his hands on the ball a ton and consistently creates clean looks for himself or teammates. In the unavoidable comparison to Kawhi Leonard, it's clear that DeRozan is the better playmaker and passer -- and it's not even close. While it's true that Leonard is better at everything else and is more accomplished postseason player, San Antonio's offensive ceiling in the regular season is higher with DeRozan than it was with Leonard.
Sustainability
The Spurs have the second best offensive in the NBA right now . . . but will it last? That's tough to say. The Spurs are shooting a league-best 47% from three-point land and that will obviously regress to the mean. San Antonio is also averaging a minuscule 8.9 turnovers per game (also a league leading mark), which too is unsustainable. Their 14.5 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions will regress some, as last season they averaged four less per 100 possessions.
On the other hand, San Antonio's two-point percentage is 44.9% -- the second worst in the NBA. That should improve. To compare, the Spurs hit half of their two-pointers last season. They'll also shoot free throws better as the campaign progresses.
If I had to guess, I'd say the Spurs have a good chance of finishing with a top five offense as long as DeRozan and Aldridge stay healthy. With top two or three a possibility. Maybe things fall apart once the three-pointers stop dropping at such a sizzling clip but I'd b pretty damn surprised if a healthy DeRozan and Aldridge can't put together a top seven or eight offense.
Move In Slow Motion For Me
Losing Dejounte Murray for the season with a torn ACL had far-reaching influences on how this team operates. While the most obvious impact is on the defensive end, the offensive approach has changed. Prior to the season, Pop was adamant that the Spurs would play at a fast pace. The plan prior to the injury was to run early and run often in order to alleviate spacing issues brought on by Murray's questionable shooting.
But with Murray sidelined until next October, the Spurs have shifted gears on offense. Literally. They are playing at the slowest pace in the league at 98.4 possessions per game. And, really, I don't see any reason why that should change. Playing at a slow pace allows Aldridge time and opportunity to utilize his elite back to the basket skills. It also allows Dr. DeRozan to dissect opposing defenses via pick-and-rolls and mid-post isolations. As long as the shooters keep shooting reasonably straight, the Spurs don't really have a reason to purposefully quicken the pace.
Wally Pipp'ed
When Derrick White eventually returns from his heel injury, I'm not sure it makes sense to start him in place of Bryn Forbes. The Spurs figured it out by accident but Forbes starting at point guard actually fits. His shooting provides a good amount of spacing -- more spacing than White would provide and certainly more than Murray. The fact that he lacks true point guard skills is mitigated by DeRozan's presence. Plus, the bench unit could desperately use White's above average defensive capabilities and his ability to make plays off the dribble.
My biggest gripe with Forbes heading into this season was the fact that he was a one-dimensional shooter who struggled to get his shots off against NBA players. A one-dimensional shooter who doesn't shoot often isn't worth much. However, things have been different thus far in the small sample size. Forbes has gone from shooting a paltry 7.6 three-pointers per 100 possessions to a very strong 10.9 threes per 100 possessions. It doesn't sound like a notable difference but that's the difference between meh and elite at the NBA level.
Sure, it's very possible that Forbes falters in the coming weeks but so far the fit is there. A low turnover,
try-hard defending, straight shooting point guard makes sense, in theory.
Unsolid D
As good as the offense has been, the defense has actually been worse. They're allowing a league-worst 122 points per 100 possessions. Not only is that the worst make in the league, that'd be the worst mark in NBA history -- even worse than the 11-win 1992-93 Mavericks squad.
Anyone who has watched the three games can't be too surprised. The Spurs have been terrible on defense, to put it kindly. It starts with a roster devoid of any perimeter defending talent. (Seriously, of the healthy players, who is the best perimeter defender? Forbes? Gay?? DeRozan???) San Antonio has some quality interior defenders but that matters less than ever in today's NBA.
If you've watched the games, you won't be surprised who grades out as the worst defender.
Defensive Rating When On The Court
Mills: 131.4
Gasol: 127.6
Aldridge: 125.4
Gay: 124.1
DeRozan: 123.0
Forbes: 120.5
Bertans: 116.8
Poeltl: 112.5
Belinelli: 112.1
Cunningham: 101.8
Crikey. Patty Mills has played some of the worst defense I've ever witnessed. In fact, I've never seen an NBA player play worse defense than I saw Mills play against the Blazers. I think I even had nightmares about it.
How much blame can we put on Mills' shoulders? Well, the Spurs defensive rating when he's on the bench is 110.2, which would still only be the 18th best mark in the league. So in summary, the Spurs are still pretty bad when Mills is on the bench but become unimaginably putrid when he's in the game.
It's also worth tracking Gasol's defensive impact. He's been really productive on offense but is the 38-year-old too slow for today's league? It's possible.
The struggles on defense were easy to foresee after Murray went down. Murray was a one-man wrecking ball last season on defense. When he was on the court, the Spurs were really good on D. When he sat, things fell apart. That's why the coaching staff was more than willing to overlook his offensive weaknesses; as bad as he was on offense, his defense more than made up for it.
We know Murray was a very good perimeter defender, but let's not forget where else he was really helpful: on the defensive boards. In the championship years, the Spurs were always near the top of the league in defensive rebounding percentage. This season, they are 23rd despite play more big ball (or basketball, as old timers called [get off my lawn]) than just about every team in the league.
In addition to the lack of rebounds, the Spurs are 25th in steals per possession and 26th in blocks. Opponents are shooting 49.3 percent from the field, 25th in the league, and 38.9 percent from downtown, 24th. Basically, all the numbers are ugly . . . as you'd expect when discussing a historically bad defense.
What can be done? White's eventual return should help. If Mills doesn't figure things out, shutting him out of the rotation would make things better on defense. The small sample size numbers say Dante Cunningham could be part of the solution.
But, realistically, defensive improvements will be up to Pop. At the molecular level, he's a defensive coach. He's never had this dry of a pool of defensive talent to work with, so he definitely has his work cut out for him. It will require smoke, mirrors, rosary beads and a few minor miracles but if the Spurs can finish in the top half of the league defensively, their offense should be good enough to lead them to the playoffs.
Appreciate the observations... Positive or negative they are way too early bc thing will even out with more games both ways but it's good yo gets snapshot of where they are.
Pop will never take Mills out of the rotation. Mills is a made man.
It doesn't matter how bad he plays or how good White or Walker do when they return.
Pop has proven that he'd rather lose with his special guys than risk winning without them.
Top half of the league defensively sounds like an enormous stretch without Murray.
Patty Mills has resorted to pawing at the front of the ball handler, like a cat playing with a laser spot on the floor. He's not defending anything.
I think most of us foresaw that this team wasn't going to be good defensively coming into this season especially with losing DG and Anderson (yeah he was good defensively as much as I give him )... but losing Murray for the season just ed everything up from "yeah we'll we're going to be average to below-average defensively" to "we're actually historically bad". And I don't think White is going to help much on that end. That dude looked sub-par defensively the few games he was out there... although it was in the preseason to be fair. He's just not going to be the difference maker on that end when he comes back. I have more hope on Walker helping out defensively than White, tbh... but let's be real, Walker isn't going to play much this year.
If we have to rely on Patty Mills being out of the rotation (year right, Pop loves him) or Dante Cunningham to help steer the ship defensively, we're already beyond ed.
Only thing that can help us is a trade or start integrating Heustis-like players into the defense even if it means the offense takes a hit.
Last edited by NASpurs; 10-24-2018 at 05:46 PM. Reason: *typo
On another sudenote: neither Mills not Gasol will stop getting minutes.
A severe losing streak will be required and it might just come along when the 3 stops falling at a near 50% rate teamwide.
I'm curious how adding Walker and White could improve the perimeter defense. They are athletic with size, but also very inexperienced and will not get any calls in their favor.
Speaking of small sample sizes... this site has the Spurs only winning 34 games.
https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/league/fourfactors
, not being bottom 5 is prolly too much of a stretch.
timvp, you should write for a column man. your takes are the only ones i read beginning to end. thanks again man.
I think we just have to accept that teams with deadly backcourts are going to eat the Spurs alive. Portland was no surprise to me. I have to believe that the front office will look to stem the tide by making a trade before the deadline.
Additionally, I have to believe that the defense will improve. Too many new faces right now. They will shore things up a bit.
Edit : I wish Lonnie was healthy, so the team could at least find out what they had in him.
Honestly though, with this brand of ball being played in the league now, I don't see teams being defensive juggernauts.
I can't stand this brand of basketball the league is pushing out. Excitement to me isn't 140 points per game.
The NBA is going to do to defensive stoppers what the NFL did to shut down cornerbacks...make them obsolete.
Last edited by callo1; 10-24-2018 at 05:34 PM.
Good write-up.
Patty will never ever be shut out of the rotation. That shot against the Lakers probably cemented another 50mil when this one is up tbh.
Defense is terrible, i'd be surprised if they move up to top 20. It's not even on Pop the coach as much as it is on Pop and the patfo. The only semblance of perimeter D they had on the team went down with Dejounte and they (for some crazy reason) refuse to bring on a defensive player to take some backcourt minutes.
Like seriously, I'll buy anyone a beer that can explain to me a) who the Drew Eubanks is b) and what possible purpose does he have on this roster....
Start Beli and Cunningham in place of Gay and Poeltl.
Forbes, Mills, Murray
Belinelli, White, Walker
DeRozan, Gay, Pondexter
Cunningham, Bertans, Metu
Aldridge, Gasol, Poeltl
Once White and Walker return, consider trading Forbes, Cunningham and Pondexter for a solid "new-age" four like Bjelica.
White, Mills, (vet PG), Murray
Belinelli, Walker
DeRozan, Gay, Huestis/vet wing
Bjelica, Bertans, Metu
Aldridge, Gasol, Poeltl
Wait, why just Eubanks? We can ask that same question about most on the roster.
Fair point tbh. I don't even know if Pondexter is on the team still?
Bryn Forbes isn't good enough to Wally Pip anyone. If and when healthy, I fully expect White to be integrated back into the starting lineup.
Good stuff OP.
As stated, its a very small sample size, but it's crazy to think how the Spurs script has been flipped...last season they were a muddling offense, lock-down defensive team...and so far they are looking like an explosive offense, turnstyle-defense team.
Really interesting stuff. Confirms the eye test, but the lack of D, seeing the actual numbers, is pretty staggering. I bet there are a lot of high schooler guard tandems that could score pretty freely on Mills and Forbes two-on-two. Hopefully the coaching staff can figure something out in that area. Maybe it's a personnel change...maybe it's inserting the WhiteWalker into the rotation...maybe it's just accepting that we can't play D and turn every game into a shooting match.
Great job OP. Posts like that are why I started coming here 10 years ago.
Pop has to try to scheme up defense instead of relying on individual 1 on 1 man defense. That means a lot of zone and funneling to the bigs. Also different looks and lineups and cross matchups. And swarming, a la the Spolestra Heatles. No way guys like Chalmers, Beasley, aging Wade and aging Battier were as good as their collective scheme made them out to be. It was the coaching, the swarming, the matchups that helped them generate all those turnovers.
Can you guess which duo is the worst defensive duo at this point in the season? Yep, Mills and Forbes. They're giving up 140.0 (!) points per 100 possessions. One hundred and forty
This is one area where Pop definitely is to blame. The eye test told us last year Mills and Forbes can't play together defensively. Advanced stats showed that duo got destroyed on defense last year. Not playing Mills and Forbes together should have one of the few items written in ink in the gameplan coming into this season.
But, here we are, three games in and Mills and Forbes has been the backcourt pairing more than 20 percent of the time -- and almost exclusively down the stretch in the two close games.
Smh.
Really? I came for the posting and trolling. Jk...kinda.
Paddy and Forbes wouldn't be playing together if not for the injuries to Murray and White. Belinelli is hardly an upgrade either.
Top 15 in D should be the goal. If they can achieve that, then that will be a heck of a job by Pop.
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