***** Official 2018 Election Night Thread *****

[baseline bum]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY1:48 AM
A little more data has come in from Montana, and now Republican Matt Rosendale has taken the lead over Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, 49 percent to 48 percent. It’s still difficult to say how this will shake out. Many of the blue counties in the state have a lot of outstanding vote, including Missoula. But there are some small GOP-leaning counties that have not reported anything yet. Note that Tester has never won an outright majority in his two Senate win (49.2 percent in 2006 and 48.6 percent in 2012), so if he does eke out a win, this would be par for the course.

[Millennial_Messiah]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY1:48 AM
A little more data has come in from Montana, and now Republican Matt Rosendale has taken the lead over Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, 49 percent to 48 percent. It’s still difficult to say how this will shake out. Many of the blue counties in the state have a lot of outstanding vote, including Missoula. But there are some small GOP-leaning counties that have not reported anything yet. Note that Tester has never won an outright majority in his two Senate win (49.2 percent in 2006 and 48.6 percent in 2012), so if he does eke out a win, this would be par for the course.

There are 2 extremely hippie liberal -- left of Seattle and Portland -- counties in West Montana that will almost surely be >80% Tester.

[Millennial_Messiah]

But yes, a Sinema or Rosen win would be a large upset and would really go a long way to spoil the Republicans' excuse to celebrate tonight.


Don't think either will happen, but the likelihood of one or the other happening isn't too low.

[baseline bum]

[RGMCSE]

This came about our discussion on tax cuts vs stimulus. It's really an apple and oranges comparison, because clearly stimulus worked to get us out of a pretty huge recession, and it's debatable whether tax cuts would've had just as profound an effect (don't forget Barry extended Bush's tax cuts when he came in, but the recession was still there). That doesn't mean tax cuts isn't a good tool with different economic conditions.

But, besides that, what I mentioned is that the top 1% and large corps had record profits both with stimulus or tax cuts. Thus the followup with the richer getting richer and the poor staying poor. I don't see a paradigm shift here where the economic growth lifts the poor more than the rich, or there's less of an income gap. I'm talking macro here, not individual (everybody got a story).

What you mention is some asshole, in this case a Dem (and this is no defense, but there's assholes of every color, shape and form), saying something stupid. I don't particularly think it's indicative of the left in general, much like I don't generalize right wingers with all being KKK members (much to boutons chagrin).

Thanks for clearing that up man. Sometimes I read and I’m like wtf? People can’t be serious. I’ll say in my opinion tax cuts do work and probably have a more immediate effect. But I’m not saying it solves all problems. It confuses me when people get uptight about the 1% making money. That’s what they do one way another. But I do believe tax cuts benefit all not just the rich.

[AaronY]

[ElNono]

Medicaid can go AND we can tighten a few extra things in the military, not in actual defense/weapons/personnel, but in VA benefits, discharged salaries and some extra fluff... they could stand to tighten up the budget there.

Look, you can't keep punishing poor people. Medicaid is the by-product of a terribly flawed healthcare system. A largely for profit system that doesn't care about people that can't afford it or people that are too sick. It's a sweet scam, tbh, insure healthy people and when they're old enough and need the most care, dump it to the government. Medicaid and Snap both have pretty strict income requirements. If you think somebody is gaming the system, then it's an oversight problem, not a program problem.

The real solution should come with an integral reformulation of the healthcare system, and in that sense, Obamacare helped in the sense that it touched what was otherwise an untouchable system (despite being extremely broken too). My biggest beefs are that the GOP still apparently doesn't have a plan that makes sense 10 years later, and the Dems need to clarify how they would modify the ACA to make it more affordable (basically, fess up and go all Bernie, and admit single payor is what they want).

[AaronY]

Im gonna be like djohn..post a bunch of wishcasting in here now to make myself feel better..wheres that Kyle griffin

[Millennial_Messiah]

But that guy on Fox must understand, Kavanaugh doesn't matter in Montana... the Democrat voters are all white hippie liberals, and that's a state that is divided big time along gender lines... the younger females are very liberal there, #MeToo is a big thing, especially in the western half of the state, and the population is very atheist/agnostic. The younger males are much more likely to be libertarian than really conservative, which means swing voters.


Tester voting against Kavanaugh is a plus for him in his particular state.

[AaronY]

Look, you can't keep punishing poor people. Medicaid is the by-product of a terribly flawed healthcare system. A largely for profit system that doesn't care about people that can't afford it or people that are too sick. It's a sweet scam, tbh, insure healthy people and when they're old enough and need the most care, dump it to the government. Medicaid and Snap both have pretty strict income requirements. If you think somebody is gaming the system, then it's an oversight problem, not a program problem.

The real solution should come with an integral reformulation of the healthcare system, and in that sense, Obamacare helped in the sense that it touched what was otherwise an untouchable system (despite being extremely broken too). My biggest beefs are that the GOP still apparently doesn't have a plan that makes sense 10 years later, and the Dems need to clarify how they would modify the ACA to make it more affordable (basically, fess up and go all Bernie, and admit single payor is what they want).

Three red states voted to expand medicaid today (Nebraska, utah, Idaho) it aint going anywhere

[Millennial_Messiah]

This came about our discussion on tax cuts vs stimulus. It's really an apple and oranges comparison, because clearly stimulus worked to get us out of a pretty huge recession, and it's debatable whether tax cuts would've had just as profound an effect (don't forget Barry extended Bush's tax cuts when he came in, but the recession was still there). That doesn't mean tax cuts isn't a good tool with different economic conditions.

But, besides that, what I mentioned is that the top 1% and large corps had record profits both with stimulus or tax cuts. Thus the followup with the richer getting richer and the poor staying poor. I don't see a paradigm shift here where the economic growth lifts the poor more than the rich, or there's less of an income gap. I'm talking macro here, not individual (everybody got a story).

What you mention is some asshole, in this case a Dem (and this is no defense, but there's assholes of every color, shape and form), saying something stupid. I don't particularly think it's indicative of the left in general, much like I don't generalize right wingers with all being KKK members (much to boutons chagrin).

So, what do you recommend if no stimulus nor tax cuts? Contractionary policy? That would cause deflation which would be good on the surface, but how many people would lose their jobs?

[baseline bum]

Evers leading Walker by 31,000 votes with 99% reporting

[AaronY]

Evers leading Walker by 31000 votes with 99% reporting

Yasss

[Nbadan]

Walker is going down!

[ElNono]

Thanks for clearing that up man. Sometimes I read and I’m like wtf? People can’t be serious. I’ll say in my opinion tax cuts do work and probably have a more immediate effect. But I’m not saying it solves all problems. It confuses me when people get uptight about the 1% making money. That’s what they do one way another. But I do believe tax cuts benefit all not just the rich.

My only beef is that there's a lot of dogma going around that's not supported by actual economic history and theory, things like "tax cuts pay by themselves". Sometimes they do, sometimes they create a huge hole. Same applies to stimulus. This is clearly no longer our grandpa's economy anymore, financial instruments are generally more profitable and give more certainty than labor. Manufacturing gave way to services. The stock market is all about the next quarter instead of long term.

Also, while I don't have a problem with anybody making money, it would be ridiculous to deny that the larger the income gap, the larger the social tensions. And it has nothing to do with envy, etc, but perceived lack of opportunity.

[baseline bum]

About 1 million votes to be counted in Arizona, but 300k of them are absentee and won't be counted until Wednesday or Thursday night

[Millennial_Messiah]

Evers leading Walker by 31,000 votes with 99% reporting

If true, there will be no recount. This will slightly increase the Democrats' chance of winning this swing state in 2020.


Not 100% sure Trump can win re-election if he loses all 3 of WI-MI-PA.

[AaronY]

About 1 million votes to be counted in Arizona, but 300k of them are absentee and won't be counted until Wednesday or Thursday night

Oh for s sake

[ElNono]

So, what do you recommend if no stimulus nor tax cuts? Contractionary policy? That would cause deflation which would be good on the surface, but how many people would lose their jobs?

I didn't recommend no stimulus or tax-cuts. What I pointed out is that one being better than the other it's very debatable, especially in light of the economic cir stances. For example, the US largely was using monetarism for many years to handle inflation, but when the hit the fan in '08, once the rate hit zero, that tool was off the table. For example, I have no problem running deficits during deflation. Keynes gets a bad rap a lot of times, but we normally only do half of what he said: run deficits during deflation, and once the economy is growing again, liquefy the built up deficit. Instead, we continue to run deficits during deflation and when the economy is growing again, we do tax cuts, decrease receipts and continue running deficits. Might be ok short term, but the inflation pressure mounts.

[baseline bum]

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Betting market has Rosen at 96.5% to take Nevada. Rosen is actually beating er in Washoe County which was supposedly critical to er's win in 2012, and none of Clark County (eg Las Vegas) has been counted. They also have Sinema at only 41.6% though, and Tester at 63%.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I didn't recommend no stimulus or tax-cuts. What I pointed out is that one being better than the other it's very debatable, especially in light of the economic cir stances. For example, the US largely was using monetarism for many years to handle inflation, but when the hit the fan in '08, once the rate hit zero, that tool was off the table. For example, I have no problem running deficits during deflation. Keynes gets a bad rap a lot of times, but we normally only do half of what he said: run deficits during deflation, and once the economy is growing again, liquefy the built up deficit. Instead, we continue to run deficits during deflation and when the economy is growing again, we do tax cuts, decrease receipts and continue running deficits. Might be ok short term, but the inflation pressure mounts.

Yes. And it's undeniable that ZIRP is a major factor for increases in inflation. Interest rate floors are not fair to anyone and just give buyers a false sense of hope and lead to artificial, unsustainable booms.

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Betting market has Rosen at 96.5% to take Nevada. Rosen is actually beating er in Washoe County which was supposedly critical to er's win in 2012, and none of Clark County (eg Las Vegas) has been counted. They also have Sinema at only 41.6% though, and Tester at 63%.

Nevada should be a liberal state. I was a little surprised er was considered likely to win.


Don't think Sinema wins. AZ is always one that breaks to the right near the end every time.


Tester will win because the counties that haven't been counted are pretty far to the left.


That's that... G'Night

[AaronY]

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Betting market has Rosen at 96.5% to take Nevada. Rosen is actually beating er in Washoe County which was supposedly critical to er's win in 2012, and none of Clark County (eg Las Vegas) has been counted. They also have Sinema at only 41.6% though, and Tester at 63%.

Lmao the Rock is .5% for 2020

[RGMCSE]

My only beef is that there's a lot of dogma going around that's not supported by actual economic history and theory, things like "tax cuts pay by themselves". Sometimes they do, sometimes they create a huge hole. Same applies to stimulus. This is clearly no longer our grandpa's economy anymore, financial instruments are generally more profitable and give more certainty than labor. Manufacturing gave way to services. The stock market is all about the next quarter instead of long term.

Also, while I don't have a problem with anybody making money, it would be ridiculous to deny that the larger the income gap, the larger the social tensions. And it has nothing to do with envy, etc, but perceived lack of opportunity.

I don’t have a problem with the programs that are there for the less fortunate. I have a problem with people ignoring them and then and whine about the man holding them down. I think that’s bull . Life ain’t fair and I don’t think it’s meant to be but if your physically and mentally capable then it’s within that persons ability to strive for something better. I feel like immigrants don’t come to the US thinking ooh ooh I can’t wait for that welfare check. They want to work and make a better life. I find that the people that the loudest about what others have don’t look at them selves first.

[Nbadan]

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Betting market has Rosen at 96.5% to take Nevada. Rosen is actually beating er in Washoe County which was supposedly critical to er's win in 2012, and none of Clark County (eg Las Vegas) has been counted. They also have Sinema at only 41.6% though, and Tester at 63%.

I think so to after Vegas comes in...