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anyone notice metu has taken mills towel waving got role so he can get minutes by celebrating every spurs made play?? lol spurms culture
The Spurs are back at .500 after winning their third straight game to begin the pivotal six-game homestand. At 14-14, San Antonio can now see the postseason in the horizon. Just a week ago, it looked like the good guys could drift too far from contention but to their credit they have, at least for now, righted the ship.
Honestly, though, the Spurs 111-86 victory over the Suns on Tuesday night isn't cause for celebration. Phoenix is a bad team who was even more shorthanded than usual. On top of that, the Suns were coming off of an overtime game last night in Los Angeles. It would have taken a momentum breakdown by the Spurs for this to have even been a close game.
That said, any win right now is a good win. The defense is looking a little bit better, the offense has more cohesion and the momentum is mounting. Let's hope they can keep that going Thursday night when they host the Clippers. If San Antonio can win that game, they'll be over .500 for the first time since they were 8-7 back on November 18th after a home victory over the Warriors.
Since tonight's game was so one-sided, I'll forgo grades for these random thoughts:
-After missing 11 consecutive three-pointers, Bryn Forbes has now hit six straight from beyond the arc. He's shooting 43.4 percent on threes for the season. Given the shortcomings he has defensively and his lack of playmaking skills offensively, Forbes must shoot straight from three-point land to have positive value. To put a number to it, I'd say Forbes simply can't afford to dip below 40 percent. And I think he can do that -- he has a quick, picture-perfect stroke and gets enough elevation to shoot even when contested. The next step for Forbes is upping his three-point attempts. Right now, I don't think he shoots enough. Forbes shoots 8.4 threes per 100 possessions. That needs to jump up about 20 percent. I want Forbes shooting them with Davis Bertans-esque frequency; this year, Bertans shoots more than 10 three-pointers per 100 possessions (last year, he was up over 11 [the highest mark in Spurs history, by the way]).
-Forbes grabbing 11 rebounds tonight was quite the statistical anomaly considering his career-high before tonight was five. Heading into the game, he was last on the team in rebounds per 100 possessions at 3.6 -- a full 10 percent behind the second worst rebounder on the team (Marco Belinelli).
-Belinelli had his third straight double-digit scoring game, a stretch that has seen him shoot 44.8 percent from the floor. His shot-selection is still erratic but at least enough of his shots are falling right now.
-DeMar DeRozan didn't really need to try to score tonight against what was essentially a glorified summer league squad. His passing, though, was outstanding. During the three-game winning streak, DeRozan has 27 assists and only two turnovers. That's ridiculously good. For the season, his assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.52-to-1 is really impressive. Of the other swingmen in the NBA who average more than six assists per game (Harden, Simmons, James, Durant and Antetokounmpo), DeRozan takes care of the ball better than any of them by a notable margin.
-The other impressive playmaker tonight was Derrick White. He had a few iffy passes and shaky decisions but overall his court vision is exciting. His ball-handling is solid enough to picture White as a point guard long-term. But he's also big and athletic enough to buy minutes at shooting guard and even small forward. His multi-skill repertoire and ability to defend multiple positions makes him a very good fit for the modern-day NBA.
-Right now, White's passing is NBA level and his defense is NBA level. His two weaknesses as it stands are shooting and confidence. With regard to his shooting, it looks like he's rushing a lot of attempts and he's not following-through consistently, which has caused a lot of sideways rotation on his shot. White doesn't get a whole lot of elevation and he doesn't have Forbes' pretty shot, but I'm confident he can figure it out enough to become at least an average scorer on the NBA level. Confidence-wise, he's on the upswing. Pop realizes how important White's development is and he's trying to get White to live up to his potential. The recent returns have been promising.
-This was the second straight game Rudy Gay looked healthy. He was moving and jumping well and wasn't holding back at all. If he can return to full health, that'd be fantastic news for the Spurs. He's clearly the team's X-factor; San Antonio is much more difficult to defend when Gay adds an extra dimension to the offense.
-It was interesting that Pop kept Gay at power forward and White in the starting lineup even though Dante Cunningham returned from injury. If Pop wants to run with this lineup going forward, I'd approve of it. I think Bertans is another player to consider due to his ability to spread the court but if this is what it takes to keep a defender like White in the starting lineup, I'm all for it. The defense looks so much better when the Spurs don't start five below average defensive players.
-Speaking of Cunningham, this game was Cunningham's season in a nuts . He played 23 minutes in which the Spurs couldn't outscore the Suns. In the 25 minutes he sat, the Spurs outscored the Suns by 25 points. Even though he was 4-for-4 from beyond the arc, San Antonio's offense still struggled with Cunningham on the court. The problem is he doesn't space the court at all because he's a reluctant shooter with a slow release who isn't a threat to penetrate the ball. In other words, the opposition can ignore him.
-For the season, the Spurs score 102 points per 100 possessions Cunningham is on the court -- the lowest mark on the team. When he's on the bench, the Spurs score 112 points per 100 possessions. That's ... a big deal. What compounds Cunningham's ineptness on offense is he's just not a good defensive player. Yes, he tries hard but that's the extent of his defensive capabilities. He can't keep players in front of him, he's slow to rotate, he's not an especially good rebounder for a power forward and he doesn't have a high defensive basketball IQ that would allow him to freelance. He's just a try-hard, that's it. The numbers back-up the observations: the Spurs allow 111.2 points per 100 possessions when Cunningham is on the court, which is the second worst mark on the team. When your defensive specialist is a bad defender, that's a main reason why the Spurs have been historically bad defensively.
-The worst defensive rating on the Spurs? That would be LaMarcus Aldridge -- and it's drastic. The Spurs allow 113.7 points per 100 possessions when Aldridge on the court and 103.4 points when he's off the court. To conceptualize that, the Spurs are the second worst defensive team in the league when Aldridge is on the court and the fourth best when he's on the bench. While there's likely some early season small sample size going on there, I'm not completely surprised. Aldridge's defensive effort all too often falls off a cliff when he struggles offensively or if his touches are inconsistent.
-Could part of the problem be Aldridge playing so much center this season? I doubt it. In today's NBA, he's a center. I think he'd be struggling even more if he was at power forward because he's just not mobile enough anymore to chase around the stretch fours almost every team employs.
-The best defensive rating on the Spurs? Jakob Poeltl at 107.3. Over his last ten games, he's been even better, giving up 105.5 points per 100 possessions. (During those same ten games, Aldridge has a horrendously poor defensive rating of 123.4). Poeltl has been getting better and better on both ends of the court. His offensive improvement has been more obvious but he has really been defending the rim well lately -- and his perimeter defense is good for a center. (But, honestly, the fact that Poeltl and Aldridge don't play much together probably has a lot to do with Poeltl grading out so well here.)
-Let me end these random thoughts with a hot take: Patty Mills has been worth his contract this season. I know Spurs fans have a hard-coded narrative that Mills is massively overpaid but taking this year in a vacuum, Mills has been worth the $12.5 million he banks. Yes, he was terrible to start the season but he has been really good since then. He's a top tier backup who supercharges the offense, gets everyone involved, makes sure the ball-movement is hopping and tries hard defensively. On top of that, he's willing to play any role, he's by all accounts an outstanding teammate and he has taken leadership duties. I'm not saying the Spurs have been vindicated for giving him that contract but just looking at this season, I think it's clear that he's worth what he's being paid.
-Some stats that show Mills' impact this season: The Spurs score 113.6 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court and 99.4 points per 100 possessions when he's on the bench. Overall, the Spurs get outscored by 10.6 points per 100 possessions when Mills is on the bench but outscore their opponents by 3.9 points when he's on the court. That 14.5-point spread is by far the biggest on the team (second is Poeltl at 9.1 points). In the last 15 games, the Spurs have outscored opponents by 10.6 points per 100 possessions with Mills on the court and have been outscored by 20.6 points (!) per 100 possessions with Mills on the bench. (Damn, I knew Mills has been playing well but that 31.2-point spread is so shocking that I had to add the numbers up by hand to make sure they were right. And, uh, it might be time to bump up Mills' minutes.)
anyone notice metu has taken mills towel waving got role so he can get minutes by celebrating every spurs made play?? lol spurms culture
Man that is some deep analysis. How did the OP miss including this?
Would you rather have Metu forlornly sit on the bench chewing his tongue?
Dont get into advance stats so curious. Would the atarting five being notorious for slow starts playing from behind and early season struggles skew those defensive ratings? Because im surprised it aint Davis who gets beat up too easily and marco who looks a step slow.
Thanks timvp.
Glad Pop finally stopped treating Dante like an NBA player (although I feel he will go back to him again soon to stroke his ego and the notion that he can make players “look better”). It’s not surprising the Spurs look like a lottery team with him in the starting lineup.
Thanks Timvp. I think the big difference really is White and Poeltl’s defense. Of course I agree that Gay is an X factor for Spurs to win. But to see White and Poeltl defend out there is contagious. I can’t wait for LW4 and even Moore/Huestis to help more on the defense. I really feel they can further help the Spurs becoming a better team. Good win!
Thanks timvp
I can easily agree with you both on Mills who’s our best guard not named DeMar and on LA being worse on defense comparing with last season.
We should consider though that Poeltl plays most of his minutes against other team’s reserves so the stats comparison with LA is not so clean. But eye test definitely says Poeltl is a more active defender.
I’ve been surprised by Patty’s emergence as an extremely valuable piece as well. We’ve seen this Patty in bits and pieces but he’s looking like 2014 championship Patty right now. Our guys really need it and he’s risen to the occasion
What happens when Gasol comes back from his injury? Does he take Jakob's minutes? Does he get inserted into the starting lineup?
Another random take: DeMar clearly doesn't care about personal stats in a garbage game
Yes it's a problem of our roster construction. I would try to trade Pau but I don't think it's gonna happen.
Hopefully we move LMA and Gasol takes his minutes.
“Advanced stats are ruining basketball. There’s no basketball anymore. “
Explains why he has been sitting on the bench in SA instead of playing in Austin. Culture Transmission.
I really like Jakob's energy since he has been getting more minutes. It's going to be very interesting how minutes will be allocated once Pau comes back.
Forbes tries really hard on defense but still gives up to easily once picked and loses his man to much on off ball situations. I hate when Pop plays Marco, Brynn and Patty together. The Suns cut the 20 point plus lead when those guys were sharing the court. I hope he stops putting those guys on the floor together
The Spanish elephant in the room tbh. A healthy Pau is moveable but it's going to be to a playoff team that can offer little in return or a team looking to dump salary.
Moving him would be clearly in the team's best interest but I highly doubt they do tbh....
Tired of being around the .500 Mark. Let's build a solid win streak.
If anyone watched Derrick White in the summer - before getting injured
He was stroking the 3 ball consistently - I think a few more games and his confidence and his shot will come back.
In the summer he was just a man amongst boys and he was pulling up after screens were set from way past the 3 point line and just drilling threes - I was really impressed -
I am baffled why he cannot hit the side of a barn now - but that is something to look forward to.
Also, Timvp - a lot of haters heads just exploded with your Patty mills take!
White can D, but on O is always rattled and nervous and shaky, never knows where to be.
Thanx so much for your thoughts Timvp...appreciate them..
Nah OP has had a soft spot for Mills for forever...always grades him way too high
Mills defense is atrocious and he gives everything back scoring wise
The attempt to make the tiny guy the leader of the Spurs is laughable and foolhardy
Sooner he's shipped for a real NBA player the better
I'll be the first to admit that Mills and Forbes were the only takes I got wrong heading into this season.
I think White's shot will return. He looks like he's trying to adjust on every single shot . . . entirely mental.
Thanks for the write-up Timvp!
I wasn't aware of the numbers on Mills either, although you can see the impact he's had when on the floor.
What's interesting to me, in those stats, is that, historically Patty hasn't been that great at running the offense and setting the tone. I remember always thinking how much more smoothly things ran, offensively at least, the last few years when Patty was off the floor and Tony was in the game.
So for me, the story in the numbers is that this team could desperately use a point guard that could steady the offense, and at least put some pressure on other teams defensively. As good as a fit as we think Forbes is next to DeRozan, I wonder how much better this team would be with a decent point guard starting every night. Is that guy Murray? I'm not sure. Offensively, last year at least, the steadying effect on Tony Parker was even more pronounced than my Mills example when Parker replaced Murray on the floor.
Don't think the advanced stats support this...
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