1. Is Kawhi Leonard’s return a must-win for the Spurs? Is this, essentially, San Antonio’s Super Bowl?
Logically, the Spurs would be best served looking at Leonard’s return as simply one of 82. For San Antonio to make the playoffs, they’ll need to be hitting on all cylinders for the vast majority of the regular season. Gone are the days that they can coast to 50-plus (or even 60-plus) regular season wins.
If the Spurs put too much stock into tonight’s game, the repercussions could be dangerous. The disappointment from a loss could cause a downward spiral, while the jubilation from a win could cause them to lose focus of the bigger picture’s reality that they are on a day-to-day grind trying to scratch and claw their way as close to 50 wins as they can get.
2. So, if the team should consider this game just one of 82, Spurs fans would be wrong to boo Kawhi, right?
no. Any Spurs fan who paid attention to how the drama played out should know they have the right to boo. Honestly, I think they should boo.
Look, I don’t think Leonard is mean guy or that he intentionally meant to hurt Spurs fans. But there is no denying that he did irreparable harm to his Spurs legacy and disrespected Spurs legends on his way out the door.
Leonard’s antics overshadowed and negatively impacted what turned out to be Manu Ginobili’s farewell season. Leonard didn’t (and still hasn’t) refuted the media’s narrative that Tony Parker’s misconstrued “100 times worse” statement played a role in his departure. Leonard refused to meet with (or even take calls from) Tim Duncan or David Robinson. Leonard played hide-and-go-seek with Pop and the rest of the front office during and after the season. On top of all that, he stopped attending games and basically disassociated himself from his teammates during the middle of a season.
If Leonard wanted to leave, that’s fine. That was his right in a league where free agency exists and superstars call the shots. How he handled things was unforgivable. Any red-blooded Spurs fan should boo.
Logically, the Spurs should attempt to have the mindset that this is simply one of 82. Realistically, they won’t. And, honestly, Spurs fans shouldn’t. If there aren’t boos raining down on Leonard, I would be disappointed.
3. Should Kawhi get 100% of the blame for the divorce?
I’ve spent a couple months investigating what exactly went wrong between Leonard and the Spurs. I’ve gotten some really interesting information and sources behind the scenes – both those close to Leonard and close to the Spurs -- paint fascinating pictures.
(Unfortunately, I’ve been warned that I’d basically be blackballed if I were to make certain details public. I have to figure out if I care about being blackballed. I’m leaning toward not caring, to be honest. I’ll make that decision in the next couple months or so.)
Some of the things I’ve heard have made me sympathetic to Leonard. At this point, I would say the blame is closer to 50-50 than most Spurs fans would like to admit. But, still, even if Leonard was completely justified, the aforementioned disrespect is all but unforgivable.
4. How is Kawhi playing this season?
In the first few weeks of the season, Leonard wasn’t quite back at his 2016-2017 level offensively. But recently, he not only reached that level, he has surpassed it. Leonard’s offense has been amazing. It may sound hyperbolic but I’d say, when he has it going, his one-on-one scoring ability and his unguardableness is at levels not seen since Michael Jordan’s heyday.
Steph Curry can catch fire and shoot the lights out. LeBron James’ ability to carry a team could make him the greatest of all-time. But if you’re talking about a mano-a-mano situation in the halfcourt, Leonard is as unstoppable as they come. He has an endless repertoire of moves, he attacks at an assassin’s pace, he has great touch from all angles, he has a powerful build and he’s fearless.
Defensively, it’s a different story. Leonard is nowhere near DPOY level. Advanced stats say he’s one of the worst defenders on the Raptors and, for example, is a worse defender than DeMar DeRozan.
Personally, I wouldn’t go as far as the advanced stats go. Leonard is no longer a great defender but he appears to still be a good defender who is capable of having great defensive possessions when needed most. Even though the advanced stats disagree, I think he’d still be the best defender on the Spurs.
5. Has Kawhi improved the Raptors to the point that they should be considered the Eastern Conference favorites?
That’s a tricky question. First of all, the Raptors aren’t obviously better than they were last season. On a per-possession basis, they’re worse offensively and they’re worse defensively. A lot of that is due to injuries and due to working Leonard into their system – but let us not overlook the fact that they were a 59-win team last season.
That said, they are definitely a more dangerous playoff team. They’re talented, deep and experienced. Offensively, Leonard’s one-on-one skills translate perfectly to playoff basketball; opposing coaches can’t scheme against what he can bring to the table when he’s running at optimal. Defensively, the prospect of Leonard being able to summon his DPOY-level play raises their ceiling on that end as well.
I’m not sure they are the favorites in the East (Kyle Lowry’s age and brittleness is worrisome, as is the regression of a few of their role players) but with Leonard leading the charge, they are probably the most feared team in the conference.
6. Did the Spurs get equal value in the Kawhi trade?
No. DeRozan has been even better than I projected – he should be an All-Star if the Spurs keep up their recent winning ways. Jakob Poeltl is a quality young bigman who has about a decade of starting-caliber play ahead of him.
But Leonard is not a player you trade as it’s just about impossible to get equal value in return. He’s too good.
Considering the cir stances, I think the Spurs did okay. DeRozan has fit in well – on and off the court. Poeltl was a good get and the first round draft pick the Spurs will receive from Toronto has value. But, yeah, that’s not a trade you consider unless your hand is forced.
7. Back to tonight’s game, who will win?
With Rudy Gay out for the Spurs and Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas out for the Raptors, it’s tough to say. Gay would be the guy to defend Leonard if healthy. Without him, slowing Leonard will be even more difficult.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pop try Derrick White against Leonard but that matchup could quickly go south for the Spurs if the Raptors put Leonard on the low block. There’s also a chance that Pop starts Dante Cunningham to defend Leonard. I think that’d be a mistake because Cunningham isn’t mobile enough to defend Leonard out to the three-point line and isn’t quick enough to stay in front of his drives to the rim (not to mention how Cunningham would hurt the offensive attack).
The answer might be the most made-for-TV one: DeRozan. Sure, DeRozan isn’t to be confused for a lockdown defender but you can bet he’ll have the motivation, if nothing else. He wouldn’t admit it to a camera but you know DeRozan would like nothing better than to send a cold dish of revenge back with the Raptors to the frozen North.
Sending relentless double-teams at Leonard is an option but I’m not sure it’s a smart one. While Leonard isn’t a great passer (in fact, he’s probably regressed a bit in that aspect), he has always been a willing passer and will find the open man, if necessary.
The best option for San Antonio is playing Leonard straight up while trying to limit him to around 30 points and stopping their three-point shooters from catching fire. If he goes too ballistic, that strategy may have to change ... but I’d be surprised if the coaches enter the game with an overly aggressive defensive gameplan.
As far as who will win, I’d say it’s close to a coin flip. Oddsmakers give the Spurs a slight edge due to them being at home and that’s a fair assessment. If DeRozan is uber motivated, under control emotionally and focused defensively, the Spurs have a good shot. Leonard could go nuclear, yes, but it’ll be interesting to see how he reacts to what will hopefully be a constant chorus of boos.
While this might just be one of 82, it’s also the one regular season game in recent history that Spurs fans really, really want. And for good reason.
Get it.
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