Saric for 1st + player...Too good to be true?

[sasaint]

I don't hate Saric. I think he was overrated last year, but he's better than he's showing right now too. That said, next year, I'd want a forward version of White or Murray locked into a four-year deal way more than an expiring Saric who's had an inconsistent career. Obviously there is downside, but RC's earned enough trust with me that I want to see him work a two-pick first-round for the first time in more than a decade.



I just think it's a pointless game. We will only have one sample to test from, so there's no way to come up with a real distribution. For example, the Spurs are either going to win the le this year or they won't. There are obvious reasons to believe it's unlikely, but when it comes down to it, if they somehow won the le, there was a 100-percent chance they were going to win. Any attempt to go from likeliness to actual numbers feels disingenuous.



Certainly has a higher floor than most guys in the low 20s. Still think he's overrated if you just go by last year's numbers. If this year is closer to his floor, then there's a real downside to picking him up, especially if that comes with a long-term deal. The picks could be used for anything from dumping a contract to moving up in the draft to catch someone they REALLY like. Just because Saric might have a better expected value than the pick doesn't mean that making that deal is automatically the best deal. Vince Carter was worth George Hill in 2009, but the Spurs held off and got a much lesser player in Richard Jefferson. Value-wise it was a bad deal, but they ended up using Hill for the Leonard/Bertans deal. Who knows if the Spurs get that fifth ring had they made the first "good" move they could have made?

I agree with everything except possibly retaining 2 first round picks. I would rather use the Toronto pick in another way. I just don't see Pop's bringing in 2 draftees in the same class this season with our roster so loaded with other recent draftees. I just think there is such a thing as too much youth - especially on such similar career tracks. So, I would like to see the Spurs package the Toronto pick with our own and move up to draft a better SF prospect (assuming there is a targeted SF in the late lottery we could get. Or package the Toronto pick with another player for a good, young rotation player.

[Drom John]

Repeating from the Buyout thread about Enes Kanter.

Enes Kanter is 88 out of 91 PFs in ESPN Real Plus Minus DRPM.
Dario Saric is 87.

[Play Boban]

Repeating from the Buyout thread about Enes Kanter.

Enes Kanter is 88 out of 91 PFs in ESPN Real Plus Minus DRPM.
Dario Saric is 87.

What a worthless metric.

[exstatic]

What a worthless metric.

By the very fact that it s on Anus Cancer, it’s anything but worthless. He’s worse than P Gasol.