Toros watchers: Any chance LWIV will do next year what D-White did this year?

[ceperez]

That's true, except don't forget two things. One, we are seeing White after two summer leagues and a full season in Austin. And two, White was 6ft coming out of high school. At that size, you have to develop not only a solid game against larger guards, but you have to work on court vision, etc. Basically, you have to accommodate for being a 6ft guard. Then, in college, he grew to 6'5. That's huge from a basketball perspective.

Lonnie strikes me as someone who has been athletically gifted and had the right size during every stage of his career. So he could rely on being more athletic and stronger than the other players his size. That gets negated to an extent in the NBA. But it means that he has to learn to adjust to a league where the average player is on par with you athletically or can compensate for it in a greater skill set. Anyone's guess as to whether he can make the adjustment to get consistent minutes in the NBA, but the Spurs do a great job of developing useful players with less raw athleticism and jump shooting ability. Lonnie has good jump shot mechanics that could help him translate into a good all around player.

I agree. White had to develop a game while being inferior size wise to everyone in the court. That's 3 years in division 2.

Lonnie is athletically superior but he's only had 1 year in college (white has had 4 years). One can however argue that 1 year in the Spurs is better training than 1 year in a division 2 school.

Then there also the problem that it takes time for players to finally get it. Many players have a hard time with the Spurs system. However, there are folks like Diaw that get it in day one.

Aldridge took a long time to get it. DeRozan is still trying to figure it out. Gay almosts gets it.

Kyle Anderson got it, but didn't have the physical talent.

White, he gets it, and he gets it beyond what the coaches can even teach. He's got Tony Parker shiftiness in offense and he's got Danny Green anticipation in defense. Spurs should probably take back Parker and Green so that White can continue to learn more from these two.

[Coach X]

I'm with the ones highlighting White's maturity impacted by his life and basketball experiences. Lonnie is younger and immature as a player yet. It will take some more time for him to make the most of his potential. IMO, the number one priority for him must be DEFENSE. His offense is fine: he doesn't have the point guard mentality but that's not a problem as he has the physical tools to play in the SG position. The understanding of the game will come to him through the experience of staying in the pro-team, observing and learning the game and listening to the coaches. He just needs to focus on playing solid defense as soon as possible.

I expect him to be in the NBA rotation next year as the 5th-6th guard behind White, Murray, Mills, Forbes and Belinelli/DeRozan. White and Murray should play more than 60 minutes; Mills, Marco and Forbes play the bench minutes with DeRozan playing punctual minutes at the 2 and Lonnie could start playing the garbage time and get into the rotation replacing injured players, rest, etc.
I'd trade away Forbes, giving more room for Lonnie, if the team is able to add a 3&D forward.

[John B]

I'm with the ones highlighting White's maturity impacted by his life and basketball experiences. Lonnie is younger and immature as a player yet. It will take some more time for him to make the most of his potential. IMO, the number one priority for him must be DEFENSE. His offense is fine: he doesn't have the point guard mentality but that's not a problem as he has the physical tools to play in the SG position. The understanding of the game will come to him through the experience of staying in the pro-team, observing and learning the game and listening to the coaches. He just needs to focus on playing solid defense as soon as possible.

I expect him to be in the NBA rotation next year as the 5th-6th guard behind White, Murray, Mills, Forbes and Belinelli/DeRozan. White and Murray should play more than 60 minutes; Mills, Marco and Forbes play the bench minutes with DeRozan playing punctual minutes at the 2 and Lonnie could start playing the garbage time and get into the rotation replacing injured players, rest, etc.
I'd trade away Forbes, giving more room for Lonnie, if the team is able to add a 3&D forward.

Agree. Forbes or Mills is redundant and will trade one of them to give minutes to Lonnie, who has more upside than the two. Lonnie will get it in time. The coaches will make sure of that. Him and Metu have the physical tools. But White has the bball iq and poise beyond years.

[exstatic]

Agree. Forbes or Mills is redundant and will trade one of them to give minutes to Lonnie, who has more upside than the two. Lonnie will get it in time. The coaches will make sure of that. Him and Metu have the physical tools. But White has the bball iq and poise beyond years.

Actually, being 24, he has the poise OF his years.

Forbes will likely draw the short straw, since he's only making $3M. Patty is virtually untradeable. Metu was a second round flyer that looks not to have panned out. He's terrible at the NBA level, and would be a cheap cut, at less than $1M.

Lonnie not only has more upside than Patty or Forbes, he has more upside than White. Will he realize that upside? It depends on 3 things: health, coachability, and work ethic.

[John B]

Actually, being 24, he has the poise OF his years.

Forbes will likely draw the short straw, since he's only making $3M. Patty is virtually untradeable. Metu was a second round flyer that looks not to have panned out. He's terrible at the NBA level, and would be a cheap cut, at less than $1M.

Lonnie not only has more upside than Patty or Forbes, he has more upside than White. Will he realize that upside? It depends on 3 things: health, coachability, and work ethic.

I hope Lonnie realizes soon, because that Murray/White/Lonnie rotation is scary good, and Pop has tinkered with 3 guards lineup before

[TimDunkem]

Three guard lineups are gross against anything other than another three guard lineup.

[buttsR4rebounding]

It seems likely that Lonnie spends another year with the Toros. With Forbes, Beli with another year on their contracts and Mills 2 more years it seems likely that there just isn't playing time for him. That combined with DJ coming back and Lonnie's sub-NBA level skill set it is logical for him to spend another year honing his game. Unless there is a trade including Forbes, Beli, or Mills during the off season I would bet Lonnie stays in Austin. And even then with DJM coming back there still may not be minutes for Lonnie.

[XDT76]

Lonnie will do well if he improves like Forbes in the last off season, more consistent 3s and better defensive awareness.

[exstatic]

It seems likely that Lonnie spends another year with the Toros. With Forbes, Beli with another year on their contracts and Mills 2 more years it seems likely that there just isn't playing time for him. That combined with DJ coming back and Lonnie's sub-NBA level skill set it is logical for him to spend another year honing his game. Unless there is a trade including Forbes, Beli, or Mills during the off season I would bet Lonnie stays in Austin. And even then with DJM coming back there still may not be minutes for Lonnie.

Word is, LW IV was supposed to get big club minutes THIS year, before his meniscus tear de-railed his training camp/pre-season. I can't see another full year in Austin for him, although a few games here and there may help keep him sharp and hone his training.

Forbes can sit as far as I'm concerned. He only makes $3M, and frankly, would be fairly easy to move if they decided to go that route.

[ceperez]

The year is running down, we haven't really see Walker IV in action. He better get moving!

[John B]

Three guard lineups are gross against anything other than another three guard lineup.

It would be if we're talking three 6 footers. But these are 6'5" athletic guards who can all create shots (waiting judgement on Lonnie). White/Murray/Lonnie would be sick both offense and scary defense

[J_Paco]

I agree with this, trade him with Mills to get younger!

Walker is only 20, so how much "younger" does the team need to get? They need more quality prospects, yes, but they have two 1st round picks to either draft or move up and get "younger."

Dealing either or two of Mills, Forbes or Belinelli should be on the table if, if Lonnie shows enough progress during the summer.

[Roscoe P. Coltrane]

No!

[Chinook]

They're not even the same players. Walker is much closer to Murray than he is to White. Walker's already showing he can hang the in the d-league. He has a lot of development to do, but he'll be way better in a year than he is now. Anyway, the team will hopefully not need Lonnie next season. In 2020-2021 when the roster pretty much breaks up, Walker should have a chance to be a designated shooter, energy player off the bench, essentially with Beli does now. Next year, he's blocked from the rotation looking at the projected depth chart. He'll likely get a lot of minutes, but I just don't think he'll have the opportunity to do what White is doing for a while yet, even if he is more ready than he currently appears to be.

[ceperez]

They're not even the same players. Walker is much closer to Murray than he is to White. Walker's already showing he can hang the in the d-league. He has a lot of development to do, but he'll be way better in a year than he is now. Anyway, the team will hopefully not need Lonnie next season. In 2020-2021 when the roster pretty much breaks up, Walker should have a chance to be a designated shooter, energy player off the bench, essentially with Beli does now. Next year, he's blocked from the rotation looking at the projected depth chart. He'll likely get a lot of minutes, but I just don't think he'll have the opportunity to do what White is doing for a while yet, even if he is more ready than he currently appears to be.

I agree. Walker is a bigger more athletic Murray that can shoot.

I hope though that Walker can play some NBA games in his rookie season like what Murray and White were able to do. They did so with even more stacked rosters.

Murray played 38 games and started in 8 in his rookie season.
White played 17 games in his rookie season.
Walker has so far played only 7 games.

[BackHome]

Walker has looked bad when has played

[exstatic]

Walker has looked bad when has played

He's 19, and didn't get a full training camp. That shouldn't be a surprise. At this point, he's not much different than a HS player who made the jump. He didn't even have a full NCAA season. He needs time, and instruction, two things that are in short supply during the season.

[Pavlov]

I agree. Walker is a bigger more athletic Murray that can shoot.

They aren't very much alike at all.

[C-Dub]

LW4 is not a LBJ type talent which most aren't so it will take a while to determine how good he will be compared to what White dis doing in his 2nd year as a 23 or so year old player. LW4 is 3 or 4 years younger than White so you can't compare. Speaking from my own growth in life, I was much better at pretty much all aspects in life at 24 than when I was 19-20 years old.

[SpurSpike]

Lonnie needs to make a anic jump if he is to do what White did this year. I don't see it happening.

Now Murray on the other hand is primed to make the jump, his body just needs to let it happen!

[Atl Spur]

Let that man live! He will be fine....... Did any of you start your jobs at the top day one?? Try to at least have reasonable expectations��

[SupremeGuy]

No way. The dude is clearly an idiot. It's a wasted pick that we're just going to have to deal with...

[duncan2150]

Walker has looked bad when has played

one thing people need to realize, you can't play 5 minutes per month and be good. it's difficult to adjust to the game, i agree That he is not ready but nothing replace the game.

[wildbill2u]

Walker could have the right stuff skillwise if he has the right stuff mentally. Sir Charles, taling about physically talented young players. put it so well: "Deer can run fast and jump high, but you don't see any making the jump to the NBA."

It is so hard for young players with outstanding physical ability to avoid the trap of overestimating their place in the NBA world. They have been lauded for all their careers as outstanding prospects because of their physical talents that they don't understand that they may have areas that need improvement in order to become even a good rotational player, much less a star.

The Spurs method of slower development means fewer minutes than they think they are due. The first time they are able to get a offer with some guaranteed minutes, they will change teams. I hope he isn't one of those, but you have to accept the possibility that we may process him into a usable player and then lose him.

[25apr]

G league stats
https://stats.gleague.nba.com


Player Impact Estimate(PIE)


2018-19
DREW EUBANKS 16.8
BEN MOORE 13.2
DEJUAN BLAIR 12.8
CHIMEZIE METU 11.6
JOSH HUESTIS 4.6
LONNIE WALKER IV 9.4
RAY MCCALLUM 10.8 ACC


2017-18
DAVIS BERTANS 15.7
DERRICK WHITE 15.1
JARON BLOSSOMGAME 14.6
LIVIO JEAN-CHARLES 13.7
BRANDON PAUL 10.1


2016-17
BRYN FORBES 13.7
DEJOUNTE MURRAY 12.6
LIVIO JEAN-CHARLES 10.7
DAVIS BERTANS 9.3
RAY MCCALLUM 13.1 GRD


2015-16
BOBAN MARJANOVIC 23.8
BRYCE COTTON 15,2
DESHAUN THOMAS 12.9
CADY LALANNE 11.1
RAY MCCALLUM 10.0 AUS


2014-15
JAMYCHAL GREEN 17.5
KYLE ANDERSON 12.9
BRYCE COTTON 12.2
JONATHON SIMMONS 8.9


2013-14
ARON BAYNES 18.2
NANDO DE COLO 16.6
MALCOLM THOMAS 14.9
AUSTIN DAYE 14.1
JONATHON SIMMONS 10.4
RAY MCCALLUM 12.0 RNO


2012-13
ARON BAYNES 16.3
JAMYCHAL GREEN 13.8
CORY JOSEPH 13.5
NANDO DE COLO 12.9


2011-12
CORY JOSEPH 13.0


2010-11
DANNY GREEN 12.3


In its simplest terms, PIE shows what % of game events did that player or team achieve. The stats being analyzed are your traditional basketball statistics (PTS, REB, AST, TOV, etc..) A team that achieves more than 50% is likely to be a winning team. A player that achieves more than 10% is likely to be better than the average player.
https://stats.nba.com/help/faq/


Formula (PTS + FGM + FTM - FGA - FTA + DREB + (.5 * OREB) + AST + STL + (.5 * BLK) - PF - TO) / (GmPTS + GmFGM + GmFTM - GmFGA - GmFTA + GmDREB + (.5 * GmOREB) + GmAST + GmSTL + (.5 * GmBLK) - GmPF - GmTO)