Playoff Preview: Spurs vs. Nuggets - 2019 First Round Series

[HarlemHeat37]

The only big advantage for Denver from a personnel standpoint is their bench athleticism IMO..that's going to be an issue for the Spurs..

Otherwise, Denver is full of hit-or-miss players on the perimeter..you have no idea what you're going to get from Murray, Barton and Harris on any given night, they could struggle for an entire series just as easily as they could get hot with their poor shot selection..

I've been saying Denver is the most overrated team in the NBA all season(along with the Clippers), but I'd still pick them to win the series, although it's kind of by default..I can't pick the Spurs with their road record and the amount of defensive liabilities on the roster..this is certainly a very winnable series, though, Denver is one of the least intimidating 2nd seeded West teams I've ever seen..

[timtonymanu]

Nuggets in 7. Good stuff though, LJ

[timtonymanu]

It would be typical of this year’s team to away an opportunity like this. Only having to face Denver, Portland and OKC in the first 2 rounds and avoiding the top 2 west teams until the WCF. Golden opportunity for the Spurs to make the WCF. It’s all about showing heart and effort which this team doesn’t.

[Mugen]

It would be typical of this year’s team to away an opportunity like this. Only having to face Denver, Portland and OKC in the first 2 rounds and avoiding the top 2 west teams until the WCF. Golden opportunity for the Spurs to make the WCF. It’s all about showing heart and effort which this team doesn’t.

[Uriel]

Reading OP’s analysis, one gets the sense that he wanted to pick Denver, but that he had to save face and pick the Spurs because of his prior post on the playoff seeding thread.

[spurraider21]

yeah you cant blow your load about playoff seeding results and then pick the spurs to lose tbh

[Keepin' it real]

Spurs sweep.

[BlackAndWhite]

What made 2015 so terrible. Was it the hack Deandre?

[SpurPadre]

Three things to offer a counterpoint to OP: 1) DeRozan is athletic, arguably the most athletic player we've had in years, and his athleticism has never been in question. 2) The Jokic being a Superstar and that his feel for the game is as good as any big in NBA history assertion is EXTREMELY over-the-top, IMO. No way should he be placed along the likes of Jabbar, Wilt, Russell, Hakeem, Admiral, Shaq, Ewing to name a few legends even if it's in terms of "feel for the game." And he is a star, indeed but a Superstar? Debatable at this point in his career. He is a bonafide All-Star, indeed, though. 3) You forgot to mention Isaiah Thomas also has playoff experience for the Nuggets and is active after missing most of the season due to injury. If he gets some play time in this series, he can be an X factor for them, which would be dangerous for us.

[spursistan]

ESPN's "experts" go 19-1 for the in' Nuggets to win this series..

Damn how the mighty have have fallen..

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...9-nba-playoffs

[MoSpur02]

Appreciate it LJ. Good write-up. Lots of good info.

I'm hoping LaMarcus and DeMar step up as they should.

I think Rudy Gay, Forbes, and Poeltl are going to be the X factors.

The only thing that worries me is the road games. If the Spurs can actually win on the road then they'll win this series.

[SpurPadre]

ESPN's "experts" go 19-1 for the in' Nuggets to win this series..

Damn how the mighty have have fallen..

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...9-nba-playoffs

Looking at the rest of their picks, they still have this series as the most compe ive in the first round, tbh.

[Maddog]

What made 2015 so terrible. Was it the hack Deandre?

Injuries.
Splitter hobbled
Tony hobbled
Boris chunkier

[TDomination]

Our team seems streaky. When we start losing it snowballs. When we get hot we get hot for a few games in a row. I'm happy we won the last 3 games. I'm hoping Forbes can stay hot and LaMarcus and can play well.

Honestly as far as game 1 goes, I just want it to be compe ive. I hope it's not a double digit deficit going into the 4th.

[timvp]

Three things to offer a counterpoint to OP: 1) DeRozan is athletic, arguably the most athletic player we've had in years, and his athleticism has never been in question. 2) The Jokic being a Superstar and that his feel for the game is as good as any big in NBA history assertion is EXTREMELY over-the-top, IMO. No way should he be placed along the likes of Jabbar, Wilt, Russell, Hakeem, Admiral, Shaq, Ewing to name a few legends even if it's in terms of "feel for the game." And he is a star, indeed but a Superstar? Debatable at this point in his career. He is a bonafide All-Star, indeed, though. 3) You forgot to mention Isaiah Thomas also has playoff experience for the Nuggets and is active after missing most of the season due to injury. If he gets some play time in this series, he can be an X factor for them, which would be dangerous for us.

1. Eh, DeRozan's decently athletic but he's only slightly above average for NBA swingmen. Defensively, though, his athleticism doesn't translate because he doesn't have quick feet and he's slow laterally.

2. Granted, "feel for the game" is a nebulous term but as far as reading plays before they develop and passing anticipation, Jokic is as good as any bigman in league history, IMO. Shaq and Ewing, for two, weren't in the same solar system in those areas.

3. Thomas has been completely out of the rotation for more than a month. He's a glorified mascot at this point. After he returned from injury, he was terrible and making the Nuggets worse ... so they stopped playing him. The only reason he wasn't waived is because he's friendly with Mike Malone. If he plays in this series, that'd be great news for the Spurs since he's easily the worst player on either roster.

[Seventyniner]

Clutch Versus Not So Much

What's not debatable is the fact that the Nuggets have been much, much better in clutch situations this season. In close games, they had the NBA's best winning percentage at 67.4%. During clutch situations, the Nuggets outscored opponents by 12.9 points per 100 possessions.

Compare that to San Antonio, who outscored opponents during clutch situations by a mere 1.2 points per 100 possessions, and that doesn't paint a pretty picture for the forthcoming fourth quarters in this series.

This actually means that the Nuggets are even more overrated than some think. Being great in the clutch means that they were not as good for the rest of the game. Clutch performance tends to revert to the mean, while the larger sample of the entire season gives more predictive power.

[timvp]

2015 - Horrible, absolutely horrible

I'd be genuinely interested in what coaching mistakes you think were made in that series, tbh. The way I remember it, the Spurs lost because: Kawhi suffered some shriveling and allowed Matt Barnes to shut him down in key moments; Parker, Ginobili and Green were all bad (looking back, Parker hit only 36.3% of his shots and Ginobili and Green were even worse -- tough to win when three key cogs shoot bricks, tbh); Splitter was injured per usual and sucked, Baynes replaced the injured Splitter and sucked even more and Diaw went from big boned to chunky and got destroyed by Blake Griffin. Going player-by-player, only Duncan and Belinelli played at or above their expected level for the Spurs. For the Clippers, Griffin, CP3, Re , Jordan and Barnes all played well.

I think Doc Rivers is an underrated coach and deserves credit for coaching well that series but I don't remember Pop being "horrible, absolutely horrible," tbh. What am I misremembering? I know there was some second-guessing his sitting of Kawhi for a stretch in Game 7 but other than that, I don't remember anything too blatant. Judging by the poor performances Pop had to work with, it looks miraculous that the series even went seven games -- much less to the buzzer of the seventh game.

All that said, I don't think the Spurs have too much of a notable coaching advantage against the Nuggets. Malone's a good coach and runs smart schemes. I'd give Pop a slight edge due to experience but coaching is overblown in the postseason. IMO, coaches can't really win or lose series in the NBA other than extremely rare cir stances.

[HWoodNixon]

I'd be genuinely interested in what coaching mistakes you think were made in that series, tbh. The way I remember it, the Spurs lost because: Kawhi suffered some shriveling and allowed Matt Barnes to shut him down in key moments; Parker, Ginobili and Green were all bad (looking back, Parker hit only 36.3% of his shots and Ginobili and Green were even worse -- tough to win when three key cogs shoot bricks, tbh); Splitter was injured per usual and sucked, Baynes replaced the injured Splitter and sucked even more and Diaw went from big boned to chunky and got destroyed by Blake Griffin. Going player-by-player, only Duncan and Belinelli played at or above their expected level for the Spurs. For the Clippers, Griffin, CP3, Re , Jordan and Barnes all played well.

I think Doc Rivers is an underrated coach and deserves credit for coaching well that series but I don't remember Pop being "horrible, absolutely horrible," tbh. What am I misremembering? I know there was some second-guessing his sitting of Kawhi for a stretch in Game 7 but other than that, I don't remember anything too blatant. Judging by the poor performances Pop had to work with, it looks miraculous that the series even went seven games -- much less to the buzzer of the seventh game.

All that said, I don't think the Spurs have too much of a notable coaching advantage against the Nuggets. Malone's a good coach and runs smart schemes. I'd give Pop a slight edge due to experience but coaching is overblown in the postseason. IMO, coaches can't really win or lose series in the NBA other than extremely rare cir stances.

When all those guys you mentioned were playing so bad, it’s fair to blame the coaching for failing to motivate them. Phil Jackson (who I think is better than Pop) knew the right buttons to push to motivate his team. Pop failed at that in 2015.

[timvp]

ESPN's "experts" go 19-1 for the in' Nuggets to win this series..

Damn how the mighty have have fallen..

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...9-nba-playoffs

Impressive hive mind.

Picking the Nuggets is fine since the series is really close to a coin flip but 19-1 is pretty absurd, tbh.

[timvp]

When all those guys you mentioned were playing so bad, it’s fair to blame the coaching for failing to motivate them. Phil Jackson (who I think is better than Pop) knew the right buttons to push to motivate his team. Pop failed at that in 2015.

@ players needing motivation in the playoffs. I can see that being a coaching fault during the regular season but in the postseason? Come on ... like Parker shot 37% and Ginobili shot 34% because they weren't sufficiently motivated to win.

[SpurPadre]

1. Eh, DeRozan's decently athletic but he's only slightly above average for NBA swingmen. Defensively, though, his athleticism doesn't translate because he doesn't have quick feet and he's slow laterally.

2. Granted, "feel for the game" is a nebulous term but as far as reading plays before they develop and passing anticipation, Jokic is as good as any bigman in league history, IMO. Shaq and Ewing, for two, weren't in the same solar system in those areas.

3. Thomas has been completely out of the rotation for more than a month. He's a glorified mascot at this point. After he returned from injury, he was terrible and making the Nuggets worse ... so they stopped playing him. The only reason he wasn't waived is because he's friendly with Mike Malone. If he plays in this series, that'd be great news for the Spurs since he's easily the worst player on either roster.

I'd say Jokic is like a young, inferior version of an after his prime Arvydas Sabonis, which is still great, but still nothing that hasn't been seen before.

[HWoodNixon]

@ players needing motivation in the playoffs. I can see that being a coaching fault during the regular season but in the postseason? Come on ... like Parker shot 37% and Ginobili shot 34% because they weren't sufficiently motivated to win.

Phil would throw Kobe, Mj, Pau, etc under the bus to the media when they performed pooorly. Pop was too chicken to do that or plant seeds in the minds of the refs to get good calls.

[timvp]

Phil would throw Kobe, Mj, Pau, etc under the bus to the media when they performed pooorly. Pop was too chicken to do that or plant seeds in the minds of the refs to get good calls.

So if Pop was brave enough to throw Manu under the bus to the media, that would have caused Manu to play with an ample amount of motivation in the playoffs? That's the argument you're going with, to be clear?

[HWoodNixon]

So if Pop was brave enough to throw Manu under the bus to the media, that would have caused Manu to play with an ample amount of motivation in the playoffs? That's the argument you're going with, to be clear?

Absolutely. Maybe instead of playing ‘harder,’ manu would play smarter.

[timvp]

Absolutely. Maybe instead of playing ‘harder,’ manu would play smarter.

Alright. So if Manu got thrown under the bus to the media more often, he would have been motivated to play smarter. Got it.