I have been preaching that for 2 years, but I am having second thoughts. If Pop had to choose between Forbes and Mills... I think it has become more of a toss-up.
In a few weeks, we should know.
Forbes has improved every year. Worked hard every summer to improve skills, improve his body. Next year will be the same. He’s not going anywhere short of being packaged for a Leonard type deal. Mills has negative trade value so he’s very unlikely to go anywhere either.
Forbes won't be traded tbh. But Beli should be shipped out tbh. Lonnie needs to get those minutes next year.
We need a culture guy like Patty on the roster and in that locker room and on that practice floor. It isn't too much salary, because without that influence, without that experience of what makes a successful team, the likelihood of this team having made 22 straight years of playoffs would have been miniscule. He's a bargain and indispensable. We need him for about 2 more years.
AD is way overrated, he's had a few decent teams and couldn't do anything with them. I would take Randle over him.
I have absolutely undersold Forbes but that doesn't mean that I am wrong about him not playing nearly as much next year. Had White not gotten injured when he did, Forbes may have take longer to get to this point- maybe not even this place. Sort of similar to Danny Green emerging after Manu got injured in 2011.
He is a good NBA player but White, Murray and DeRozan are better and will get the bulk of the perimeter minutes plus Poeltl starting means fewer minutes to around ( Gay starting means Bertans is the backup 4, instead they usually play together with Mills, Beli and Poeltl in bench units).
I just think he's going to be having to compete for much fewer minutes with Beli and Walker. Using his positive value to try and move up with either or both pick's seems like a good idea to me.
Really hope Nassir little falls #19
It's hilarious how sensitive you are, Zeus/oops, Poseidon statue. Is Ganymedes away, making you grumpy? Why don't you remind everyone here for the millionth time that you've been watching Thybulle for two years and considered him a possibility for the Spurs long before anyone else did, but now that there's talk of him elsewhere you're no longer interested. That would be a great point to hammer home yet again.
Your schtick is silly, and, uh, you have been judged unworthy, etc., etc., and you picked the wrong statue to represent your Greek God
Last edited by R. DeMurre; 04-14-2019 at 11:53 AM.
He jacked that phrase from an old school comedian from the 90s
Mills is overpaid but I don't buy that he has negative value. If would be one thing if he was playing poorly this season but he shot 40% on 5 3s a game.
Also his contract jumps only about $830,000 in year 3 and in year 4 while the salary cap jumps $8 million and $10 million in those two years.
Basically the cap e should more than off set any decline in his play, while his contract will probably look better when the cap in $118 million and he is making $14 million.
IMO Mills more than gives up on the constantly bad defensive end what he inconsistently brings on the offensive end. There are a number of players teams could pick up in FA or trades that would be better and cost less than A poor and fading Mills.
Oh, c'mon, let's be at least a little bit honest, and fair. Whatever else he may struggle with, that sucker can shoot. Forbes absolutely has NBA shooting talent. People, including me, criticize him for other things, especially defense, but it needs to be admitted Forbes does have some NBA talent.
If that's the case, then isn't Forbes and Beli in the same boat in terms of defense being a negative? For the record, I tend to be more skeptical on labeling players as net negatives.
I think above average offensive players/below average defender's are still valuable in an increasingly offensive league. Mills and Beli are both key cogs on one of the best bench units in the league despite their issues on the other end of the floor.
Also don't agree with you that Mills is fading, his numbers were pretty close to his Spurs career averages and shot the out of the ball while playing in every game. He's been a bench player for his entire career, they tend to fade later due to fewer minutes played.
I think it is fair to call Forbes above average, offensively. Spot-ups, pull-ups, floaters, and drives to the rim, he is capable of doing all of those things effectively
IMO Mills is declining defensively and offensively he is less capable going to the basket and mid-range. Even if the were equivalent there is a massive difference in cost for production and Forbes is on the upswing and has not reached his maximum potential years yet. Maybe not the popular opinion but while neither is a stellar defender I think Forbes is considerably better and on offense has more versatility and still room for improvement. He is a FAR more versatile trade asset and I think Mills would require a sweetener to dump or might get someone of equal negative value at a different position and different skill sets. All moot, Mills is Pop’s glue boy and I don’t believe he’s going anywhere.
Mills' advanced stats have declined, somewhat, but his finishing percentage at the rim has actually been excellent (68.5%). his percentage on shots from 4-23 feet has dropped off though but only account for 25% of his shots. His tru-shooting % is actually still above average at 57% and only 1.5 % behind Forbes'.
Overall, he is taking more of his shots as 3's ( a career-high 61% of his shots are 3's) while also shooting 40%, that is obviously valuable and something that he should continue to do- take most of his shots from 3 and fewer mid rangers as he gets older.
I don't think we are saying much different things. We both agree that Forbes has better trade value and will continue to get better. I also do think that Mills will play out his contract with the Spurs but we diverge on whether Forbes has a future with this team. I think he is good but I think that there is a log jam that will prevent him from getting decent minutes so it's worth considering trading him.
Forbes contract is up in 20-21. Mills and Derozan’s contracts are up in 21-22. Hopefully they don’t resign Mills. Hopefully Murray, White and Walker are good enough that they don’t commit to a long term, high salary Derozan. Keeping Forbes depends mostly on progress he shows, what kind of salary he commands and possibly, but imo unlikely, whether he gets package for a player or draft pick.
I think this draft will impact those players as I think Tyler Herro/Alexander are better all around players then Mills and Forbes.
I don’t know.
The narrative around this draft is very similar to the Leonard/Klay draft (It’s weak, etc.) To my mind it’s the type of draft where GMs actually earn their money by doing their homework. Outside of whoever gets Zion, there is a lot of room for the pertetually crappy front offices to wiff at the top of the draft.
I don’t rule out a trade in this draft if there is a player the Spurs like that’s slipped past 9 but won’t last past 14.
I totally agree, I remember the draft experts on ESPN saying how the kawhi/Klay draft was one of the weakest drafts in years and if you look back there was a ton of good players taken in that draft.
We'll go with the best character available, then see what we can do about getting a basketball game in there somewhere.
Your years are off;
Forbes is under contract until after next season, not 20-21.
Mill's expires in 20-21. DeRozan has an out after next season and will likely opt out and either re-sign or sign elsewhere to a long term deal.
Alrdridge and Bertans, just like Forbes and DDR will be free agents in the summer of 2020, not 2021, plus Murray who will be an RFA. That is going to be a pivotal off season for sure.
I think Mills will probably not be retained, DeRozan almost certainly will but it will be a matter of years.
3 years for around what he opted out of ($27) is what I fear PATFO may offer but at least he will only be 32 by the end of the deal.
If the Spurs hold onto Forbes, it is interesting to see how that plays out. There is a chance that he continues to start and play around 20 mpg with White being the backup 2 and playing a lot off the bench but that means both Beli and Walker would be on the outside of the rotation.
He could also not play a lot and have his value suppressed in FA.
That sounds about right.
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