Considerations as the Spurs Prepare for the 2019 NBA Draft

[timvp]

The Spurs enter this year's draft with three picks: 19, 29 and 49. The front office has a fantastic track record over the last 20-plus seasons in the draft and RC Buford and company's ability to draft well is perhaps the most important strength of the entire organization going forward.

The 2019 NBA Draft is different for San Antonio because it's the first time since Gregg Popovich returned as GM in 1994 that the team doesn't have a franchise player on the roster. From David Robinson to Tim Duncan to Kawhi Leonard, there was always someone to build around. While today's Spurs have talented veterans and promising youth, it's undeniably a different landscape.

Overall, the Spurs will still be in the business of drafting the best player, as has usually been the case over the years. However, due to the altered landscape the Spurs find themselves in, I think a few considerations should enter the front office's equation when deciding which players to draft.

Positions Not Equal

As the roster is constructed, it's impossible to ignore that drafting a guard doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Between Derrick White and Dejounte Murray, the Spurs don't have extra minutes available for a developmental point guard. Add in Lonnie Walker IV, who San Antonio remains very high on, and there aren't many hypothetical minutes at shooting guard either. If Bryn Forbes turns out to be a long-term piece, the guard positions are even more fortified.

Currently, DeMar DeRozan is a full-time small forward but, despite his presence, there remains a glaring need at that position. The Spurs don't have a true backup at SF -- and it's not looking overly likely that DeRozan is a long-term piece, anyways.

Given LaMarcus Aldridge's age and the unlikeliness of Jakob Poeltl signing as extension this summer, both power forward and center have potential openings -- both in this upcoming season and over the long haul.

In the short-term, as witnessed during the first round series against the Nuggets, the Spurs are missing a physical power forward off the bench. In the long-term, it's wide open at both power forward and center.

Stability As A Weapon

Popovich, Buford and the rest of the front office has no need to worry about their jobs; they'll be around as long as they want to be around. In the NBA, such job security is exceedingly rare.

With that job security in mind, the Spurs should be more willing than other franchises to take chances in the draft. For example, there are a few players in this draft who will miss all of next season due to injury. While most teams don't have the luxury to wait, San Antonio is in a position where they can pick a player even if he's not scheduled to hit the hardwood until the 2020-2021 season.

While there aren't any high level draft-and-stash players in this year's draft, that's another area where the Spurs could use their franchise stability to their advantage if they see the opportunity.

Shooting Needed

While White, Murray and Walker appear to be potential building blocks, all three are questionable three-point shooters. Although their marksmanship will likely improve, it's unlikely White, Murray or Walker become notable snipers.

With the way the league is going, three-point shooting ability is already a major consideration for every team -- but it's even more important for the Spurs if they're looking for a long-term fit next to White, Murray and Walker. The Spurs should think twice before drafting a non-shooter to go along with what already appears to be a shooting-starved cadre of youth.

If Poeltl ends up being a long-term building block as well, this shooting requirement will be even more vital going forward. In today's NBA, it's difficult to put more than one non-three-point threat on the floor. Eventually, as the league is trending, all players are going to be expected to be able to knock down open threes.

Upside More Valuable

During the championship years, finding a role player in the draft was worth his weight in gold. The Spurs didn't need to swing for the fences, as hitting a single or double was supremely valuable to those teams.

Today, things aren't quite as straightforward. Until further notice, the Spurs need to value upside more than has usually been the case. If the Spurs are deciding between similar prospects, superstar potential should be weighed heavily.

This consideration should also make the Spurs more aggressive in terms of moving up the draft. If they think they've located the next overlooked superstar -- as they did with Leonard -- the altered risk-reward ratio should have them taking chances this front office has historically been hesitant to take.


Tomorrow: Big Board unveiling

[TD 21]

1. Attempt to package a pick(s) and/or young veteran(s) to move up. If as projected Little is available at 13, offer 19, Bertans and Forbes for the pick and Olynyk.

2. Failing that, take the highest upside player available at 19. Don't worry about positional value or overlap because right now no in bent player should be viewed as an untouchable. Collect talent, increase options and sort it out later.

3. At 29, barring an unexpected fall by a more pedigreed prospect, select Okeke. Checks too many boxes that are difficult to find period let alone in that range and between a higher pick to begin with and with likely 11 rotational locks or considerations already, the possibility of him missing next season shouldn't be a big deal.

4. Prediction: If they haven't already selected a finesse big like Samanic, and Porter doesn't make it to 49, I wouldn't be surprised if they try to maneuver to acquire him.

[Kurik]

3. At 29, barring an unexpected fall by a more pedigreed prospect, select Okeke. Checks too many boxes that are difficult to find period let alone in that range and between a higher pick to begin with and with likely 11 rotational locks or considerations already, the possibility of him missing next season shouldn't be a big deal.

Have to agree, Okeke at 29 has much more upside than anyone else in that range.

[Chinook]

I just don't think you can consider Poeltl a building block. Like he's good to have around and all, but you can't let him stop you from drafting a center just because it'd be unlikely for them to play together. I get that the OP doesn't do that, but I've seen posters here do so. I think a shooting four is a need, but I also think Lonnie will be a good shooter soon, maybe even this year. There's little wrong with his mechanics, and he did pretty well after healing up last season. I think you can play Walker with Murray and especially White and be okay on that end if the front-court guys can do their parts to space the floor.

I think getting a solid role-player is still a need. The Spurs are going to try to win as hard as anyone in the wide-open West. They may not make a sell-out trade to get a third star, but they aren't going to sit on their laurels either. I agree upside is really important, and it's been that way since 2014 when Parker and Manu really started to show their ages. They should draft the best prospect at 19 unless there is a guy available who'd be a strong rotation player right out the gate (like maybe Cam Johnson, PJ Washington or maybe Brandon Clarke). Then they should look at 29 for a guy who can be that 10th man right away. If they do get that high-floor guy at 19, then they should use 29 to lock in Okeke or one of the freshmen who falls. They don't need two extreme projects with Walker and Metu still developing. Getting a guy who can play some NBA minutes will give them the flexibility to move on from Beli, Bertans or Forbes if a trade comes up (like for Bogdanovic).

That said, yeah, the Spurs shouldn't kill themselves to draft for need. This is a great front-court draft, but the result of that is that there will be guards and small wings who fall way farther than they would normally. It's okay to get one, especially if it's someone who's 6-6ish and can play the three in the same vein as DeRozan. The Spurs aren't going to keep all of these guards. Guys are going to wash out or get washed out. Maybe Murray stays, but if he does, Forbes may not, or White may price himself out of the team's plans, or Walker may not develop or may be too injured to make a difference. I'd worry about being too talented at a position when it actually happens.

Also, I think this is shaping up to be a decent free agency for forwards. RHJ isn't a great shooter, but he can play both positions and is a plus defensively. He seems like a guy who can compete with Bertans and hopefully shoot well enough to slide into the starting lineup. If not him, Aminu is also a free agent and may not be back in Portland due to their cap constraints. Oubre may be back in Phoenix, but the Suns seem willing to slough off some of their forward depth, so he may be gone if they can't move anyone. Or , maybe they can move someone to the Spurs. There are other possibilities like the Morris twins or trading for Bojan that could also factor in, but the point is that the Spurs will be able to address their front-court problem with the MLE. They don't NEED to draft a guy for that, especially not anyone who's projected to play soon.

[ZeusWillJudge]

When Kyle Guy declared, I figured him for an early second rounder. But they still have him going in the late second round. If he's still there at 49, I think it's a no-brainer. He could easily be a 6'5", better-defending, better-rebounding Bryn Forbes. He needs to put on some weight/strength, just like Bryn did. But he's one of a 3P shooter, right on par with where Bryn was after 3 years of college, and pretty much better than Bryn was at just about everything else.

I know drafting a guard isn't a priority, and I know that nobody is very excited about who they take at 49. But Guy would be a damn good pickup at 49. And since Bryn's contract is up after next season, he could be a great piece to be holding in the wings.

[Chinook]

1. Attempt to package a pick(s) and/or young veteran(s) to move up. If as projected Little is available at 13, offer 19, Bertans and Forbes for the pick and Olynyk.

2. Failing that, take the highest upside player available at 19. Don't worry about positional value or overlap because right now no in bent player should be viewed as an untouchable. Collect talent, increase options and sort it out later.

3. At 29, barring an unexpected fall by a more pedigreed prospect, select Okeke. Checks too many boxes that are difficult to find period let alone in that range and between a higher pick to begin with and with likely 11 rotational locks or considerations already, the possibility of him missing next season shouldn't be a big deal.

4. Prediction: If they haven't already selected a finesse big like Samanic, and Porter doesn't make it to 49, I wouldn't be surprised if they try to maneuver to acquire him.

A lot of what I said, but in bullet-point form. I do think there's room for someone like Cam Johnson with either pick. The team shouldn't expect to fill in a hole with their draft, but someone like Johnson or Washington could start this upcoming season, and if you can cover them up with a pick of Bazley, Okeke or Claxton in the back, it makes a ton of sense. I'd love for the Spurs to draft a star, and I think there will be a couple who are drafted outside the high-lottery, but even a mid- to high-level starter is a huge win for 19, and I think one of those guys or Clarke can do that.

[Chinook]

When Kyle Guy declared, I figured him for an early second rounder. But they still have him going in the late second round. If he's still there at 49, I think it's a no-brainer. He could easily be a 6'5", better-defending, better-rebounding Bryn Forbes. He needs to put on some weight/strength, just like Bryn did. But he's one of a 3P shooter, right on par with where Bryn was after 3 years of college, and pretty much better than Bryn was at just about everything else.

I know drafting a guard isn't a priority, and I know that nobody is very excited about who they take at 49. But Guy would be a damn good pickup at 49. And since Bryn's contract is up after next season, he could be a great piece to be holding in the wings.

Guard's a sneaky need, especially if it just costs a second-round pick. There's a legit chance the Spurs bring in three rookies regardless of their current roster crunch, and if they move on from Metu, it becomes even more possible. If you lose DeRozan, Forbes or Murray next summer, you don't want to hope you can fill in the gap later. You want someone who's already been in your system to at least compete with whomever you bring in. Maybe Guy can do that? Know nothing about him, and I think it's sort of unfair to assume he'll be nearly as good as Forbes, who had a marketable NBA skill from jumpstreet and has developed a ton over the past three years. But they may not be able to hold onto Bryn even if he is better than Guy.

[DPG21920]

Again, even before the GS demise happened, I wanted SA to pick a direction. I don’t understand not taking a pick-rich package for Kawhi instead of DeRozan if you aren’t willing to push. Like, with Kawhi they were ready to push and get another All-Star, but now with DeRozan whom you chose you aren’t?

It should be the same; dangle what you need to get an all-star. OR, go the other way and dangle your all star to a team willing to pay.

I don’t understand this sitting in the middle stuff with the decision they made. The could have gotten younger or more picks; they didn’t have to trade for a win now type player.

[Dejounte]

Not seeing what's so special about Okeke.

Trade assets for moving up: Mills, Forbes, Bertans, Belinelli

We should only move up for: Sekou, DeAndre Hunter

Highest risk, highest reward player: Bol Bol

Best defender prospect to target: Isaiah Roby

X-factor potential: Luka Samanic

If we go by the trend for the past few years of drafting playmaker-first players: Darius Bazley, KZ Okpala

A pick that would remind me of when we drafted Kawhi: Nic Claxton

The "duh" kind of picks of players we knew the Spurs would draft but we were in denial: Thybulle, Grant Williams

Low Ceiling but Has zero chance to bust: PJ Washington

Total bust pick: Rui Hachimura, Nassir Little

[palangi]

We are in a lot of trouble if we really believe DeRozan is a full time SF

[DPG21920]

But I agree with all of this. Spurs are some of the best at drafting and player development. It’s not just that risk is needed as you described; its that the chances of succeeding here seem to be greater than most places too.

This is a wild environment in the nba at the moment and will be interesting to see what everyone is doing

[ElNono]

Just wanna know if we'll win the draft, tbh

[TimDunkem]

Which prospect has the biggest forehead?

[Mugen]

Pretty straightforward tbh.

If they like somebody that falls in the 10-14 range, you make a call to those teams and dangle 19 plus whatever it takes out of Beli/Forbes/Bertans to move up.

I could see all those teams valuing picking up a "shooter" on a cheap, short contract while not dropping a ton of spots in a top-heavy, deepish draft.

This is pretty much the only facet of the FO that I still trust so I'm fine with whomever they pick, even more so if they like somebody enough to be aggressive in a trade.

[Chinook]

Again, even before the GS demise happened, I wanted SA to pick a direction. I don’t understand not taking a pick-rich package for Kawhi instead of DeRozan if you aren’t willing to push. Like, with Kawhi they were ready to push and get another All-Star, but now with DeRozan whom you chose you aren’t?

It should be the same; dangle what you need to get an all-star. OR, go the other way and dangle your all star to a team willing to pay.

I don’t understand this sitting in the middle stuff with the decision they made. The could have gotten younger or more picks; they didn’t have to trade for a win now type player.

I think it's more that they don't think they are close enough to a le with DeRozan and Aldridge to sell out but they still want to push for 50 and give their young guys a chance to develop in a winning environment. Our standards as fans are really high to where we think the Spurs are bad, but the really bad teams like Phoenix and Orlando tend to have a terrible time developing players. You don't have to make guys high-volume players right away to help them grow. Let them come up as role-players learning from stars and have them take over when they're ready. Murray and Walker have a ton they can learn from DeRozan on how to work the mid-range game. They'll need it once their first-option scorers even if their bread and butter comes from other places (Murray at the rim and Walker from deep). Anyone from Claxton to Samanic to Hachimura could learn a lot about post scoring from Aldridge.

Ultimately, it's really hard to build a contender through high picks. Either your supporting cast is too good to let you tank, or by the time you star develops, you aren't able to hold onto the rest of your core. It's much easier to either sign a star in free agency or trade for one once you already have that core established. The Spurs are going this right. They should have a ton of cap space in 2021 and a stable of young talent to use to make their push. Difference is they won't have to be awful for the next two years, which makes it easier on us fans, and they can always change their minds mid-flow and go for it if a star becomes available.

Also, the best pick we know about the Spurs passing up was 10 from Philly. Seeing as they wanted to move up to draft Walker anyway, it doesn't feel like they missed out on anything. Even Boston wasn't hesitating to offer the SAC pick and Brown for Leonard, which in retrospect is the non-deal that killed the King-era Celtics.

[Mugen]

That said, Sekou has been my guy for a while now. They'll have to trade up to get him but he's my dream pick.

I'd be okay with any of the other SFs and Gogo....I'd probably stop being a Spur fan if they picked ing Bol Bol or a White American player tbh.....

[Immortal Spur]

But I agree with all of this. Spurs are some of the best at drafting and player development. It’s not just that risk is needed as you described; its that the chances of succeeding here seem to be greater than most places too.

This is a wild environment in the nba at the moment and will be interesting to see what everyone is doing

definitely should be a sellers market.. that happens rarely that I can recall.

[Cardinal]

At least one of Doumbouya, Hachimura, or Little (and in all likelihood, all three) will be available in the 10-15 range. I think there is a noticeable drop-off in terms of top level upside to the next tier of forwards after this group. My sense is that the Spurs must be high on at least one of these guys and I hope they're able to move up to nab their guy. It is almost certain that none of them will be available at 19.

[spurraider21]

i guarantee that whoever the spurs draft will be called the steal of the draft, and a "typical spurs fit"

[DPG21920]

i guarantee that whoever the spurs draft will be called the steal of the draft, and a "typical spurs fit"

To be fair, based on where they were drafted & what they’ve show Murray & White do look like steals. If Lonnie has a productive year?

[Immortal Spur]

I really think the picks are gonna be Samanic at 19 and Roby at 29... They are doing there due diligence like they always do but if nothing happens this is what I think they'll do.

[4lifecowboy]

I really think the picks are gonna be Samanic at 19 and Roby at 29... They are doing there due diligence like they always do but if nothing happens this is what I think they'll do.

I really like Roby, 19 is too high for Samanic. I would prefer Roby and Kabengele. Might still can get Samanic with a second round trade up.

[r0drig0lac]

We are in a lot of trouble if we really believe DeRozan is a full time SF

I agree, but I think Pop (wrongly) thinks so, too.

[Big Empty]

Reading Timvps draft profiles, We should trade anyone on the team & all pics for DeAndre Hunter. LA is older and DD isnt our future.

[TDMVPDPOY]

lma, ddr and fkn scrub mills need to go

start the full rebuild now around the young kids on the team white, walker4, forbes, murray...