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  1. #26
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    We are valued in a tie as the 9-10th most probable team to ring in the West with the Pelicans,and the Mavs are at 8 with +5000.

    I call that disrespectful,and Vegas is underestimating the 19-20 Spurs.

    It's a bet with value-But I am still not buying it cause i don't think there is any plausible scenario where the bet pays off.

    Talking about longterm betting,i'll wait till i get a chance to buy the Spurs making the playoffs with the Yes/No betting format or buy the 45.5+ Win Total bet as it stands atm.
    Judging from the Championship odds,making the playoffs is not gonna be a bad bet as well.
    Vegas tries for even bets. The losers pay the winners, and they take their cut. It isn’t about respect or disrespect, it’s about even money. If a team isn’t getting enough action, they lengthen the odds. It’s as simple as that.

  2. #27
    Banned!!! GusT15's Avatar
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    Vegas tries for even bets. The losers pay the winners, and they take their cut. It isn’t about respect or disrespect, it’s about even money. If a team isn’t getting enough action, they lengthen the odds. It’s as simple as that.
    That's the general rule in the single game ML or spread but it goes a bit further than that with longterm bets.They are a bit more "educated".

    I just checked the Make the Playoffs Yes/No bets in European sites to see if they are up.

    The Spurs are the 8th favorite to make the Playoffs atm at -200.

    The Mavs are at +180 and the Pels are at +205.

    So our floor is higher than those two teams but our ceiling is lower for Vegas.So i can't find value in the Make the Playoffs bet.
    Just the 46 Win Totals it is.

    Listing the Make the Playoffs current odds.

    Clippers_-10000
    Jazz ____-3300
    Lakers___-1650
    Rockets__-1650
    Nuggets__-580
    Warriors__-330
    Blazers___-285
    Spurs____-200
    Mavs____+180
    Pelicans__+205
    Kings____+400
    Thunder__+600
    TWolves__+600
    Suns____+1100
    Grizzlies__+1400
    Last edited by GusT15; 07-14-2019 at 06:24 PM.

  3. #28
    Believe.
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    Wow clippers rockets warriors Denver easy money problem is we live in Texas

  4. #29
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    That's the general rule in the single game ML or spread but it goes a bit further than that with longterm bets.They are a bit more "educated".

    I just checked the Make the Playoffs Yes/No bets in European sites to see if they are up.

    The Spurs are the 8th favorite to make the Playoffs atm at +150.

    The Mavs are at +280 and the Pels are at +305.

    So our floor is higher than those two teams but our ceiling is lower for Vegas.So i can't find value in the Make the Playoffs bet.
    Just the 46 Win Totals it is.

    Listing the Make the Playoffs current odds.

    Clippers_+101
    Jazz ___+103
    Lakers__+106
    Rockets_+106
    Nuggets_+117
    Warriors_+130
    Blazers__+135
    Spurs___+150
    Mavs___+280
    Pelicans_+305
    Kings___+500
    Thunder_+700
    TWolves_+700
    Suns___+1200
    Grizzlies_+1500
    These must not be listed the way I'm used to. Doesn't +100 (and -100) imply a 50% probability of happening (without factoring in the vig)?

  5. #30
    Banned!!! GusT15's Avatar
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    These must not be listed the way I'm used to. Doesn't +100 (and -100) imply a 50% probability of happening (without factoring in the vig)?
    It is in the 50% Yes/No format,i just posted the Yes Betting Value.

    And you're right i made the Europe Odds to Vegas Odds only by positive value to do it quicker in my mind .So i ed up in other words.

    By positive odds it's actually

    Clippers_+1
    Jazz ___+3
    Lakers__+6
    Rockets_+6
    Nuggets_+17
    Warriors_+30
    Blazers__+35
    Spurs___+50
    Mavs___+180
    Pelicans_+205
    Kings___+400
    Thunder_+600
    TWolves_+600
    Suns___+1100
    Grizzlies_+1400

    The full format (negative-postive) for example is

    Spurs-To Make the Playoffs Yes -200 No +150
    Mavs- To Make the Playoffs Yes +180 No -250
    Pels - To Make the Playoffs Yes +205 No -300

    I think i did that conversion right.I'm looking at "Spurs Yes-1.50/No-2.50" for example and now my head hurts

    Edit (And of course i forgot about the online conversion tool and did it myself -I'll go fix the first post now as well)
    Last edited by GusT15; 07-14-2019 at 06:17 PM.

  6. #31
    Displaced 101A's Avatar
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    Wow, you're right.

    If Bernie wins you can give 70% of everything you've EARNED above $164,000 (including this bet and all other income you made that year - meaning every bit of the bet for me), PLUS 7.9% FICA (Bernie wants to do away with the cap), plus another 7.9% FICA if you are self employed (again me), PLUS whatever you pay in income tax to you state, town & school board (which is another 5% for me). All told on that bet, I get to pay 91%!

    Thanks.

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