Stephon Castle - 2024 NBA Draft Prospect

[R. DeMurre]

Interesting case. A player that just is comfortable in the mid-range. Deep shots just don't work for him. Then you have a toddler in Dillingham who launches from pretty far out, or Curry.

Granted, with DeRozan i think it was mental. He was comfortable taking a shot with his heel on the three point line, but not his toe... and even on three point attempts, he had more shots called twos than I've seen with other players because his toe was on the line, as if even on three point attempts he had this psychological need to be as close to the line as possible.

[TD 21]

Shooting form is important.

If the form looks good it might just be a minor correction or not rushing the shot so fast so just a timing issue.

If the shooting form is bad the whole shot needs to be corrected and reworked and it shows awkwardness with the player and it may never be able to be improved upon if the athletic ability and coordination isn't there with the player.

I remember one of my old coaches telling me early on that despite how good of a shooter I appeared to be, I'd supposedly have to change my shot in order to get it off in games (despite not lacking size) since the release point was too low . . . after seeing me obliterate that theory in short order, he apologized.

One of the GOAT shooters, Stojakovic, had unorthodox form, as does the aforementioned Haliburton and others good-great ones.

If Castle develops a shot, his upside is complementary superstar. If he doesn’t, he’s a marginal contributor. Worth the boom/bust risk?

There's no such thing as a "complementary superstar", since there's only five currently (Jokic, Embiid, Antetokounmpo, Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander) and only one other obvious one (Wembanyama) in the making, which is more or less a typical number at a given time.

Castle's ceiling is almost certainly elite role player and he more than likely won't hit that either.

I think they’ll find that in FA if need be. Draft of only one part of the offseason.

That said, I’m a hard pass on Holland and his MKG looking shot. Rather roll the dice with Salaun.

How many times have we seen this though? They've repeatedly tried signing one dimensional specialists like Forbes or McDermott, playing them in outsized roles and hoping that would solve the issue.

Granted, their current two best players are volume 3-point shooters for the first time ever, but still. Proficiency wise, it's got to come from other core players.

[R. DeMurre]

It's interesting how some have dismissed Nikola Topic as a "non-shooter"-- despite his excellent 3 year large sample FT% of 87%-- while also holding out an optimistic view that Castle's 3 pt shot will come around... I think objectively speaking it would make more sense to bet on Topic's 3pt shot coming around than Castle's.

[LeBowen]

It's interesting how some have dismissed Nikola Topic as a "non-shooter"-- despite his excellent 3 year FT% of 87%-- while also holding out an optimistic view that Castle's 3 pt shot will come around... I think objectively speaking it would make more sense to bet on Topic's 3pt shot coming around than Castle's.

The problem is that Topic needs to improve in more areas.

Castle should be an all-elite defender and a solid secondary playmaker at the very least. Questionable if he can be the primary point guard and if his shot will develop.
Topic will be an elite passer, but every other aspect of his game is a huge question mark. Can't shoot as of now and is an awful defender.

If Castle doesn't improve his shot or playmaking, he'll still be a solid glue guy.
If Topic doesn't improve his shooting, he's out of the league.

[Mr. Body]

Great breakdown of defensive possessions from Castle. Shows why he's not simply an elite on-ball defender but elite in the team concept as well. At the beginning, he points out that UConn with Castle and Clingan on the floor was 99th percentile defensive rating in the country. When Castle played without Clingan, the drop was to 'very good,' but the same drop was seen with Clingan without Castle. In simple terms, they were both nearly equals in making the Huskies a smothering defense, despite Castle being a freshman.

A comment points out that had Castle hit three more 3 pointers, his season average would have been .307 instead of .267, which is what Jrue Holiday shot at UCLA. That's how much of a variance there is.

https://tankathon.com/players/compar...--jrue-holiday

And Castle is bigger and stronger at the same position. Who doesn't want Jrue Holiday out of this draft?

[R. DeMurre]

The problem is that Topic needs to improve in more areas.

Castle should be an all-elite defender and a solid secondary playmaker at the very least. Questionable if he can be the primary point guard and if his shot will develop.
Topic will be an elite passer, but every other aspect of his game is a huge question mark. Can't shoot as of now and is an awful defender.

If Castle doesn't improve his shot or playmaking, he'll still be a solid glue guy.
If Topic doesn't improve his shooting, he's out of the league.

Yeah, I can see that view of Castle, and I'd say that puts his median outcome at about Dyson Daniels, who I actually like and who at 20 years old is still underrated imo. It'll be cool to watch over the next few years and see how they both develop.

[DAF86]

Have you ever seen MKG’s form? You can’t just compare percentages,and say Castle is a comp.

How the do you pick up a ball as a kid and start shooting like that? Why did nobody else correct him?

[baseline bum]

I really like Castle, but given team needs around shooting and spacing if it’s a choice between Sheppard and Castle at 4, I think Sheppard is the right pick. Castle is unlikely to fall to 8.

Sheppard seems like the obvious pick for Houston though unless Risacher is still on the board.

[Mr. Body]

Sheppard seems like the obvious pick for Houston though unless Risacher is still on the board.

If I had a bet, Houston's pick goes to Brooklyn in a Bridges trade or to a team that really wants Clingan.

[DAF86]

The problem is that Topic needs to improve in more areas.

Castle should be an all-elite defender and a solid secondary playmaker at the very least. Questionable if he can be the primary point guard and if his shot will develop.
Topic will be an elite passer, but every other aspect of his game is a huge question mark. Can't shoot as of now and is an awful defender.

If Castle doesn't improve his shot or playmaking, he'll still be a solid glue guy.
If Topic doesn't improve his shooting, he's out of the league.

Neither of those things are even close to being locks, tbh. Vassell came to the league as an elite defensive prospect, he's average now, at best. Castle's handles and playmaking are far from being a lock in the next level also. As it is, he was barely a secondary playmaker in college, why would he be a lock to be a secondary playmaker in the NBA?

If you draft Castle, it is because of the believe of him developing his game. He's not even close to a sure thing or a high floor guy, like a Reed Sheppard could be, tbh.

[SpursBills]

Yeah, I can see that view of Castle, and I'd say that puts his median outcome at about Dyson Daniels, who I actually like and who at 20 years old is still underrated imo. It'll be cool to watch over the next few years and see how they both develop.

To your point re Castle and Topic, it just really depends heavily on team context. Who would you rather have, Dyson Daniels or Josh Giddey? Totally depends on the team. Most spurs fans would probably say Daniels since Spurs already have Wemby who's going to use up a lot of possessions and projects to do at least some creation, and they really want another defender to throw at elite playmakers in the west. If you're a Wizards or Nets fan though? Probably lean heavily towards Giddey, as they're more willing to risk a useless player to get an initiator.

[LeBowen]

What? Neither of those things are even close to being locks. Vassell came to the league as an elite defensive prospect, he's average now, at best. Castle's handles and playmaking are far from being a lock in the next level also. As it is, he was barely a secondary playmaker in college, why would he be a lock to be a secondary playmaker in the NBA?

Vassell wasn't as good as Castle on defense and Castle has a way better build.
UConn system working against him if we talk playmaking has already been explained.

Anyhow, not a single player in this draft is a sure thing. We can just hope PATFO gets the right players. At least one of them needs to become an important rotation member or we wasted a season for nothing.

[baseline bum]

Great breakdown of defensive possessions from Castle. Shows why he's not simply an elite on-ball defender but elite in the team concept as well. At the beginning, he points out that UConn with Castle and Clingan on the floor was 99th percentile defensive rating in the country. When Castle played without Clingan, the drop was to 'very good,' but the same drop was seen with Clingan without Castle. In simple terms, they were both nearly equals in making the Huskies a smothering defense, despite Castle being a freshman.

A comment points out that had Castle hit three more 3 pointers, his season average would have been .307 instead of .267, which is what Jrue Holiday shot at UCLA. That's how much of a variance there is.

https://tankathon.com/players/compar...--jrue-holiday

And Castle is bigger and stronger at the same position. Who doesn't want Jrue Holiday out of this draft?

Though gotta say Holiday was a supremely disappointing player his season at UCLA. I remember when they got him I was thinking he'd be an absolutely dominant PG based on his HS play and it took him until his second season in the NBA to figure things out and live up to that sky high potential he showed in HS.

[baseline bum]

If I had a bet, Houston's pick goes to Brooklyn in a Bridges trade or to a team that really wants Clingan.

Brookyln really should trade Bridges to Houston (which would royally suck for the rest of the West), but thankfully they seem as stubborn as Masai was with Anunoby when teams were making wild over the top offers for him.

[KobesAchilles]

I want Topic over Castle. Him being out a year doesn’t hurt our timeline at all. I feel like the Spurs would take Sheppard over all of them though from an analytics standpoint

[baseline bum]

God damn I wish we still had Chip. If so Castle would be my obvious first choice after he taught Kawhi chunk the ball over his head Leonard to have near perfect Kobe like form on his jumper. I'd even take Castle #1 if Chip was still here. But without him and looking at how Sochan, Wesley, and Branham haven't developed much on their shot in two years (outside of Sochan's free throw) I think I'm leaning Dillingham over Castle. Though if the Spurs think Castle has a Kawhi like work ethic I wouldn't fault them taking him.

[SpursBills]

Neither of those things are even close to being locks, tbh. Vassell came to the league as an elite defensive prospect, he's average now, at best. Castle's handles and playmaking are far from being a lock in the next level also. As it is, he was barely a secondary playmaker in college, why would he be a lock to be a secondary playmaker in the NBA?

If you draft Castle, it is because of the believe of him developing his game. He's not even close to a sure thing or a high floor guy, like a Reed Sheppard could be, tbh.

One minor point about Vassell, even though he had great stock% in college, I think the context of his defensive projection at the next level was that he was going to be a very strong team and off-ball defender but would have trouble as a POA defender due to his slighter build and difficulty handling physicality, which to a certain extent we have seen at the next level.

I do agree with the rest of your post though, as I think too often we underestimate prospects' floors. In fact, probably the 2 surest attributes in the draft to me right now are 1) Sarr's defensive versatility and 2) Edey's ability to score in the post

[baseline bum]

I want Topic over Castle. Him being out a year doesn’t hurt our timeline at all. I feel like the Spurs would take Sheppard over all of them though from an analytics standpoint

Topic will likely still be there at #8, you could have both.

[DAF86]

If Castle develops a shot, his upside is complementary superstar. If he doesn’t, he’s a marginal contributor. Worth the boom/bust risk?

If Castle doesn'g develop his shot, he could easily be out of the league before his rookie contract runs out. Why are folks speaking of Castle as if he were this high floor prospect? Those are guys like Risacher, Sheppard, Knecht, imho. Heck, I see Dillingham and his shooting as more of a sure thing than Castle, tbh.

[baseline bum]

If Castle doesn'g develop his shot, he could easily be out of the league before his rookie contract runs out. Why are folks speaking of Castle as if he were this high floor prospect? Those are guys like Risacher, Sheppard, Knecht, imho. Heck, I see Dillingham and his shooting as more of a sure thing than Castle, tbh.

Castle's floor is probably Swiss army knife off the bench. No way this guy doesn't have a 10-15 year career, short of injury.

[R. DeMurre]

To your point re Castle and Topic, it just really depends heavily on team context. Who would you rather have, Dyson Daniels or Josh Giddey? Totally depends on the team. Most spurs fans would probably say Daniels since Spurs already have Wemby who's going to use up a lot of possessions and projects to do at least some creation, and they really want another defender to throw at elite playmakers in the west. If you're a Wizards or Nets fan though? Probably lean heavily towards Giddey, as they're more willing to risk a useless player to get an initiator.

Agreed generally, but I think the Spurs are so in need of talent that the context probably doesn't matter much, as I'm going with the supposition that most of the current players on the roster won't be on Wemby's first le level contending team.

[Mr. Body]

If Castle doesn'g develop his shot, he could easily be out of the league before his rookie contract runs out. Why are folks speaking of Castle as if he were this high floor prospect? Those are guys like Risacher, Sheppard, Knecht, imho. Heck, I see Dillingham and his shooting as more of a sure thing than Castle, tbh.

Because Castle projects at worst as a solid to very good defender? And one who can do multiple things on the court to help a team? It's not astonishing. There are many players in the league who fit that mold very directly. If there's anyone in this lottery who I project to not fall out of the league in their first or second contracts, it's Stephon Castle. His skill set is most likely to translate, translate well, and be in demand.

[R. DeMurre]

Because Castle projects at worst as a solid to very good defender? And one who can do multiple things on the court to help a team? It's not astonishing. There are many players in the league who fit that mold very directly. If there's anyone in this lottery who I project to not fall out of the league in their first or second contracts, it's Stephon Castle. His skill set is most likely to translate, translate well, and be in demand.

If Castle's not available, would you trade the 8th pick for Dyson Daniels? He's already established as a good NBA defender, a pretty good passer, and shoots over 31% from 3.

[Mr. Body]

One minor point about Vassell, even though he had great stock% in college, I think the context of his defensive projection at the next level was that he was going to be a very strong team and off-ball defender but would have trouble as a POA defender due to his slighter build and difficulty handling physicality, which to a certain extent we have seen at the next level.

I do agree with the rest of your post though, as I think too often we underestimate prospects' floors. In fact, probably the 2 surest attributes in the draft to me right now are 1) Sarr's defensive versatility and 2) Edey's ability to score in the post

One thing that's provocative and wasn't mentioned in that YT video I posted upstairs in the thread, is how Castle's defense is affecting his teammates. They're all playing very good defense -- it was a very well coached team. One thing I think you pointed out, superbly, is how the advanced stats of each player on UConn took a hit for their defensive scheme. Castle has a very poor steal % for a supposedly great defender. But the transferees (Newton, Spencer) saw their percentages drop, and it's because they played a non-gamble defense. That video pointed out Castle was about 40th percentile for his position in the NCAA for steals... but about 90th percentile for his position in the NCAA for blocks. He was such a suffocating defender because he wasn't gambling for steals.

Anyway... what I was trying to say was that you can see how often Castle's teammates are staying at home on their perimeter assignments even as offensive players are rolling into the rim, because they seem to know that Castle (as part of the screen and other actions) is going to pick them up. It's pretty fascinating how they're sometimes not budging to tag rolls because they know it's covered, and I think this helped the entire team suffocate opponents.

This is a long way of going into what you're saying, that Vassell may not be a great point of attack defender, but a Castle-Wemby kind of defender could unlock more of his potential as a help-side defender, take away more of his POA duties as they come up. Basically, a potentially elite perimeter defender adds on to everyone else on the floor.

[DAF86]

Castle's floor is probably Swiss army knife off the bench. No way this guy doesn't have a 10-15 year career, short of injury.

How many of those prototypes are there in the league now? A 15 minutes off the bench guard that can't shoot? There must be some, but I can't think of any right now.

Edit: Wesley. But he's more a project than a real rotation guy, tbh.