Someone Convince Me The Grizzlies Shouldn't Be The Overwhelming Favorite in the WCF

[RD2191]

I don't understand how we aren't expected to beat a 5 seed. I mean they're a 5 seed for a reason. Spurs are a 2 seed for a reason.

[moisaenz]

If diaw stops being hesitant on shooting the ball we can manage without bonner having to play to stretch the floor

[baseline bum]

I don't understand how we aren't expected to beat a 5 seed. I mean they're a 5 seed for a reason. Spurs are a 2 seed for a reason.

And they were an 8-seed too.

[baseline bum]

If it makes anyone feel better, timvp was very wrong about last year's WCF when he picked the Spurs in 5. So hopefully he can go 0/2 in his predictions.

[doobs]

I don't understand how we aren't expected to beat a 5 seed. I mean they're a 5 seed for a reason. Spurs are a 2 seed for a reason.

Grizzlies won 56 games. Spurs won 58 games. Not a huge difference.

[tmtcsc]

I'm feeling better about this series. I think it would be wise to smother Conley and make things extremely uncomfortable. He's the head of the snake for that team. The Clippers tried to trap him but he broke that easily so I'm thinking it would be best to put a bigger defender on him. Put Parker on someone else perhaps and let him save his energy for the offensive end.

We also need to make their bigs work and try to get them in foul trouble. Get them off the floor for long periods. One thing for sure, there won't be a hack-a-big on Memphis. Those guys make their FT's. Should be a great series.

[ploto]

Grizzlies know exactly who they are. Spurs still seem to waver back and forth.

I think a lot of Spurs fan do not appreciate the defense of the Grizzlies - kind of ironic.

I look forward to a good old-fashioned tough, physical series full of big guys playing dominant roles. I am not so sure that Splitter is ready for this and rather sure that Pop will turn to Bonner.

[Rapper]

1 We have better ball movement

2 Our experience in playoffs is beyone compare even though we lost to them in 2011

3 The best coach in the decade is our Gregg pop

4 Our young guys are getting more confidence through past 2 series

5 The 2013 Duncan is far better than 2011ˊs no matter his mindset or at ude

6 We have home court advantage

7 In terms of offense ,we are definately excellent than Grizz in so many ways because we have more weopens and options

8 We are healthy.

9 We are avengers so that we have more momentum and desire to win this series.

10 The year 2013 is odd year

hey timvp ,dont be so soft , we are better team this year

spurs in 7

[EVAY]

Is there any chance at all that Pop would activate Baynes for some of these games, simply to have another body to lean on Gasol and Randolph in the low post?

Does anyone think he might?

[ginobilized]

My angle of hope centers around the idea that this Spurs team has not really peaked. Yet. It is possible that they find that extra gear.
If not, I still think that it could come down to end of game execution and the Spurs have a chance in those cases.

Memphis could easily make some costly mental mistakes that allow the Spurs a game or two. WCF is a lot more pressure than they are used to.

[Bruno]

I expect/wish big series from Parker and Splitter.

Parker has been terrific during the regular season against Memphis (25.5ppg) and I expect it to continue. IMO, Conley's defense is damn overrated. His defensive regular season numbers are quite bad and Chris Paul just destroyed him in the first round.

For Splitter, while there are some wishful thinking too, he looked better at the end of the GS series after his disastrous start of the payoffs. I'm not really expecting big offensive numbers from him but it's his defense that could turn this series around. If Grizzlies can't dominate in the paint, they are as dangerous as a teddy bear.

Regardless, I like Spurs chances and I'm quite confident but so I was in 2011 against Memphis so take it for what it's worth...

[Fabbs]

The bigger question is whether TP can get healthy enough to hurt them offensively, and how often our offence will go into a funk like it did for the last 15 mins of game 6. IMHO the team just needs to have faith in the system and stick to it.

Good points all on the others. As to TP...
Will Lord Poppy move away from TP dominating the ball if TP is at 60%?
Many a possession was ghastly last series.

[T Park]

I expect/wish big series from Parker and Splitter.

Parker has been terrific during the regular season against Memphis (25.5ppg) and I expect it to continue. IMO, Conley's defense is damn overrated. His defensive regular season numbers are quite bad and Chris Paul just destroyed him in the first round.

For Splitter, while there are some wishful thinking too, he looked better at the end of the GS series after his disastrous start of the payoffs. I'm not really expecting big offensive numbers from him but it's his defense that could turn this series around. If Grizzlies can't dominate in the paint, they are as dangerous as a teddy bear.

Regardless, I like Spurs chances and I'm quite confident but so I was in 2011 against Memphis so take it for what it's worth...

This team IMO is better suited to face the grizzlies this time around.

[jag]

Tiago about to put the team on his back and cement his legacy as the best big man to play next to Duncan since The Admiral. He must be freed

[dbestpro]

The Spurs will customize their approach for Memphis. In LA is was all about fronting the post. GSW was about matchups and execution. Memphis will be about pushing the ball before Memphis can set up their defense. The 2012 offense that pushed the ball evolved as a result of that 2011 Memphis series. Look for the Spurs to push the ball and try to run the limited bench of Memphis out the gym.

[ajballer4]

Is there any chance at all that Pop would activate Baynes for some of these games, simply to have another body to lean on Gasol and Randolph in the low post?

Does anyone think he might?

I think he does. He was active in the Laker's series. While Diaw was hurt then, I think we can all agree if he did a good job on Howard. He won't play unless there is an emergency, but I can see him being active while De Colo/TMac are inactive. Grizz have no wing threats, McGrady won't be needed

[spursince#99]

I just fail to see how a team that struggles to score against decent defenses, I just, whatever.

Finish this statement

[spursince#99]

we would've beat Memphis in 2011 had made that 3 to win game 1 IMHO, tbh. That 3 set the tempo the entire series along with Manu being hobbled, and our D is SIGNIFICANTLY better than that 2011 defense. Thanks in large part to those gunners on the Warriors who basically taught us how to play tight physical defense IMO. I honestly believe that year was fools gold anyway. I mean Blair, Bonner, Neal, and got valuable minutes for crying out loud

[therealtruth]

I think he does. He was active in the Laker's series. While Diaw was hurt then, I think we can all agree if he did a good job on Howard. He won't play unless there is an emergency, but I can see him being active while De Colo/TMac are inactive. Grizz have no wing threats, McGrady won't be needed

I think McGrady's best value could be when the offense is stalled and we're struggling to score. One thing I remember from the '11 series is we struggled to score against their set defense. The Grizzlies don't give up much 3's and they pack the paint. That means the easiest ways to score our in transition and from midrange. In the half court execution will be key. The Spurs will need to move the defense and get the best available shot.

[Trainwreck2100]

And they were an 8-seed too.

they tanked that year for the spurs though

[Obstructed_View]

And they were an 8-seed too.

They intentionally tanked for a Spurs team that had an injured Manu Ginobili and a center rotation that averages 6'7" tall.

Grizzlies won 56 games. Spurs won 58 games. Not a huge difference.

The Grizzlies were playing for seeding up until the last day of the season. The Spurs had basically nothing to play for the last two weeks of the season. They were six and a half games ahead of Memphis when they let up on the gas.

[Tbiggums47]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.




I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

Sorry TIMVP
,
although your insight during the season has been spot on. YOU and many others seem to underestimate the resilience of this team. I have to agree with Dan Carney of the Spurs Nation. Although Memphis is a defensive juggernaut type team to contend with....They just don't have the offensive muscle to move me away from a team who has offensive balance and defense to match........Not to mention the benefit of having home court. You pointing out the obvious can not change what the Basketball Gods have ordained.......A fifth Championship Baby.....Peace!

[Spurs 4 The Win]

Sorry TIMVP
,
although your insight during the season has been spot on. YOU and many others seem to underestimate the resilience of this team. I have to agree with Dan Carney of the Spurs Nation. Although Memphis is a defensive juggernaut type team to contend with....They just don't have the offensive muscle to move me away from a team who has offensive balance and defense to match........Not to mention the benefit of having home court. You pointing out the obvious can not change what the Basketball Gods have ordained.......A fifth Championship Baby.....Peace!

Swag Swag Swag
Preach it!

[Nbadan]

Back to fundamentals...to win this series the Spurs offense has to click....the Spurs need Diaw, Splitter and Duncan to hit the offensive board...one shot per possession isn't going to get it done...Tony has to be able to penetrate the lanes against Memphis's zone defense..Spurs can't let ZBo go off..should be all hands on deck every time he touches the ball...let Conley and the guards beat you from the outside..

[Nbadan]

I think part of TimVP's apprehension is that the Griz need a lot less to go right than the Spurs do to win this series...but ultimately, shots got to fall and that's why we play the games...