Early entry list very important. Sites have guys like Spencer Hawes on the list that I don't think will go pro.
Spurs will need to trade up if they want their SF, unless it's McGuire and he pans out. Other guys like Jared Dudley might be available, but I don't see them as solutions. Taking a guy like Tucker or Byars gives you, probably, a bench player instead of a longtime starter.
McGuire has announced recently that he's coming out. He looks like he may be the athletic SF we've been looking for--and he's probably gonna be in our range in the draft. These kids are all gambles once you get out of the lottery picks but he's as good as any that might still be around when we pick.
The thing about McGuire is that he hasn't hired an agent, so I think he'll do the workouts and assess his draft stock before coming out. If he has good workouts and gets strong indication that he'll go in the first round, I think he stays. That doesn't mean he won't fall to the first part of the second, but with Julian Wright going back to Kansas, McGuire's draft stock as one of the few SF increases.
Byars=The next Josh Howard
The Spurs can make up for not taking Howard by taking Byars
Bulls win again, Cavs lose again.
Bulls now are 1/2 game behind.
Tomorrow Cavs and Bulls meet in Chicago.
Bulls will for sure try everything to catch the Cavs and get the no.2 seat. (otherwise they would fall to no.5, play the Raptors or Wizards in the first and likely meet the Pistons in the 2nd round)
so for us the no.53 pick looks realistic again.
On Byars, Chad Ford (who is ESPNs NBA Draft Specialist) responded to a Chat question saying that the #12 prediction (NBAdraft.net) was wildly too high and that he has MUCH less athleticism than Thornton and isn't a better shooter/scorer than Morris Almond...but that was a better comparison. He set Byars draft position firmly in the second round.Byars=The next Josh Howard
The Spurs can make up for not taking Howard by taking Byars
I'm not saying I trust wholeheartedly in ESPN, but NBAdraft.net is the only one that has Byars in the first...
BTW, I don't understand the random picks by NBAdraft.net...they have the Spurs getting combo guard Gabe Pruitt and then PG Bobby Brown in the second....where's the understanding for a needed 3?
Early mock draft aren't based at all on teams needs, it's just a ranking of players. Gabe Pruitt at 28th just means that he is the 28th best prospect and not that they think that Spurs should/could draft him.
Another think to consider about Spurs and the future draft is that Spurs won't have a lot of roster spots available if they don't do some trades or waive some players. As it stands,Spurs second round pick and Bulls second round pick (if Spurs get it) will likely be traded or used to draft euros who stay overseas and I can see too Spurs trading either their first round pick or Bucks second round pick. Spurs should only add one player (maybe two but I won't bet on it) from the 07 draft to their roster next year.
Thanks for the info, but that's somewhat misleading on their part.
I see your point on the # of roster spots, which is why I think only one of the prospects would be on the roster next year.
I could see a scenario where the Spurs snag a high-potential international prospect (Fernandez, Belinelli, Tomic) to stash for maybe a year, and then grab the SF in the early second (McGuire, Terry) to add to the roster for next season. The last two picks could either be traded away or used to grab some more international prospects...
If the Spurs wind up draft-n-stashing the first rounder and pulling an only passable player like Rayshawn Terry with the Milwaukee pick, that would IMO be a disaster. In my estimation, this team needs to add two good young talents who are not currently on the roster. Though he isn't exactly 'young', one of those two can be Luis Scola.
There will be a roster crunch, sure. The way I see it:
Robert Horry is retiring, his spot is open.
Beno Udrih - this is the last time he will have any real value, is a cheap contract, and might still flourish in another system; he will be traded.
Jackie Butler - do they want him anymore? I could see him go in a package or to wherever Larry Brown is, etc. He's cheap but doesn't seem to be what the Spurs need. If they can draft a Craig Bradshaw, Butler is absolutely gone.
Melvin Ely - depends on what happens to Butler and other big guys. His spot is essentially open.
Fabricio Oberto - slim chance he opts out and goes overseas, but I don't think so.
James White - that decent performance gave a little pause, although against GSW. Keep, unless a better young SF prospect can be had, which is definitely possible.
Jacque Vaughn - resigned.
Francisco Elson - kept.
So... two spots will open up, at least: Horry's, and either Ely's or Butler's (or both). This could very well be the summer Brent Barry is traded, too, if the Spurs think they can get their young SF packaging him with Scola + picks or something like that, although of course that wouldn't necessarily open a slot.
If I were the Spurs, I would prioritize moving up in the draft. After that, they should have contingencies in place depending on what players become available. I doubt Ian Mahinmi comes over this summer. And again, I think the Spurs need two valuable new players to come in this summer
If Mahinmi doesn't play more with Pau, I hope he will come this summer. But he will go directly to NBDL.
He still takes a roster space if he plays NBDL. I don't see that happening.
It's unlikely that Mahinmi will be with Pau next year.
Mahinmi is the backup C for Pau this year and Pau's staff has still said that next year backup C will be Ludovic Vaty (a promising young player).
I've heard too some rumors that said that Mahinmi will sign with Spurs this summer. We will see what will happen this summer but if I had to bet on something it would be on Mahinmi signing with Spurs this summer.
ian mahinmi looks like n busts now
lets move on...
With a draft this deep, it's tough to see how it could be a disaster...
I wouldn't call getting Fernandez, Belinelli, and Tomic (and possibly Batum or Gallinari if they declare), a disaster. The Spurs can keep them overseas for one more year while the contracts of Barry, Finley, and Elson expire and give the Spurs one more year to evaluate their options at whatever position that prospect holds.
On Terry/McGuire, I would consider them good young talents. Terry has the athleticism and shooting touch to play in this league...reminds me of Stephen Jackson without the gun-toting. McGuire doesn't have the constant shooting stroke, but he is a good passer, slasher, and defender. I think both would be "good, young" additions.
'Disaster' is perhaps too strong, but we absolutely need those two young players next year. If we draft Fernandez and keep him overseas a year, draft Derrick Byars with the Milwaukee pick, and bring over Luis Scola, then that will be a success for me. 'Pick-n-stash' to me reads Ian Mahinmi. Taking a guy who doesn't really deserve that pick in order to 'get in front of everyone.' If all we get out of this draft next year is Rashawn Terry, that will be a major -up, even if we do get Fernandez for the future somewhere along the line, though I suppose that could be mollified by trading Barry/etc. for a young guy already in the league.
On Mahinmi, I've read that the Spurs will try to bring him over, but he's D-League material and will occupy a potentially valuable slot. Maybe they'll ask Fabbs to opt out of his contract or cut someone...
The reason I'm not high on Byars (for this squad) is that he's not big enough to play the 4 in small-ball sets because he doesn't rebound enough. As presently constructed, the Spurs don't have a legitimate option for the smallball 4. The "ideal" guy for the job is McGuire.
As many as these will not be Spurs next year: White, Butler, Horry, Udrih, Oberto, Ely, and maybe Barry.
We cannot go through another year without a significant roster overhaul, at least at the bench level. We cannot convince ourselves after another close loss to the Mavericks that this team won't break down from age.
Byars would be a great pick in the 2nd round. Not ideal, but very nice should he be there. We need talent in general, even if it is not the optimal SF. If a good player doesn't fit, we can always shop him.
Edited: McGuire and Byars collect the same number of rebounds. Byars did play more minutes, but in a better conference. I'd take McGuire, but to say Byars doesn't rebound is not correct. 4.9/game.
DX says there's a good chance Chase Buddinger declares for the draft. They say he will go Top 10.
I disagree that Beno will have any value this offseason (let alone real value). The only way he gains value is by playing back to somewhere in the same area code as his potential once showed (I know he's been better of late, but that's not saying a lot).
I think he'll be back. He's still got a high ceiling as far as third PGs go.
Fixed that for you. Contractually...Butler, Udrih, Oberto, Barry, and Finley are supposed to be with us next year.
I don't disagree that the Spurs have legitimate concerns (lack of "scorers", no "small-ball 4", solid backup PG, etc.), but it just doesn't look like the Spurs have the roster spaces available. You would have to guarantee that one or more of the personnel mentioned above are traded and/or cut by roster-trimming time, keeping in mind that the Spurs won't just GIVE them away.
Where are you getting your info?
Yes, Byars at 4.9 in 31MPG, but that's where you stop being right.
McGuire's rebound average this year was 9.8RPG in 32min!
And for good measure....Terry's rebound rate in 24 minutes last year was 6.2. This year, slumped to 5.4 in 21 minutes. Sorry Mr, you're wrong.
One more warm body is good for the Spurs. I wonder if his teammate Marcus Williams follows him out the door.
EDIT: Read the article, and it looks like Williams will indeed be headed to the NBA, though it's not official.
Last edited by AFBlue; 03-30-2007 at 12:17 PM.
you forgot Bonner. this would make it 9 question marks.
I think Spurs want to keep Bonner, but for sure this isn't their priority this summer. he is restricted, so Spurs can wait what other teams offer, I assume that the Spurs won't offer him a big contract anyhow.
(likely in the same area what they payed this year. 2 million, maybe slightly more). with Horry likely retiring and Bonner a question mark, it would be even more important to have the Scola option.
IMO Spurs have to see it this way. they likely won't get a player with the same immediat impact potential via free agency or trade, considering the money and/or trade assets they currently have.
on the other mentioned I also agree with your estimation.
Spurs will try to resign Vaughn (which would be a good move), assuming Vaughn signs for the veteran minimum. they won't/can't pay him more.
Beno will be gone, no matter if Vaughn resigns or not. maybe for another underachiever, when both teams hope the players will flourish with the other team. (someone like Julius Hodge, David Harrison, Kirk Snyder, ....just to mention a few names of teams that might be interested in a PG).
Khryapa still as a wish scenario for me, but not likely in a trade just for Beno.
Pavlovic and Delfino are out of reach, but maybe a possibility with some teasers.
word is, they don't want Butler anymore and would love to get rid of him. and I gurss Butler would also love to somehow get out.
as I see it, they will try to trade him (in a package with Beno?), but if this fails, they will buy him out. Butler would accept a buyout, because another year out of the league would hurt his stock more, than accepting a buyout. (half of his contract?). but this would open another roster spot.
I guess Ely will be gone. nothing points towards a resigning. Spurs have his bird rights, so maybe a S&T is a possible scenario, if another team likes Ely.
about White the Spurs will decide when they have learned what they got out of the draft. they might find a SF, who is more NBA ready and has more upside than White, in this case they will either trade him, or just waive him. I don't think that the Spurs use 2 spots for 2 SF rookies. (I call White an as well as rookie, if he was on the roster next year). my guess is, we won't see Whie with the Spurs next year. this draft just looks as if there are better players for his position available.
I really can't see Mahinmi at the roster, would be very surprised.
my guess is, they would rather pick an available big with the Buck's pick (Visser, Hill, Fazekas, Davis?), after they had picked the SF (McGuire) with the 1st rounder.
I think we might see 3 rookies on the roster next year, with Scola as a seasoned one of them.
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