2025 NBA Draft

[CGD]

Everybody misses, sometimes. All you can do is a background check, and if people hide from you, there isn’t a lot you can do.

I do wonder what Primo would have amounted to if he kept it in his pants. We forget now, but he was showing promising signs on offense, was a solid defender, and was being lauded for his cool/collected confidence. I’m not saying he would have being anything close to Castle, but I also remember thinking that I saw the logic of taking the big swing. And the org itself was marketing him as the next big thing too.

[rascal]

Analytics Deep Dive 20


In basketball, FTA refers to Free Throws Attempted, which is the total number of free throws a player or team has taken during a game. FTA Rate, or Free Throw Rate, is a stat that compares a team's free throw attempts to their field goal attempts. The formula for Free Throw Rate is FTA / FGA (Field Goals Attempted). It essentially shows how often a team is at the free throw line relative to their overall shooting attempts.


Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• FGA (Field Goals Attempted):
  This is the total number of field goal attempts a player or team makes during a game.
  
  
  
  
  
• FTA / FGA:
  This ratio, the Free Throw Rate, provides a percentage of how often a team is at the free throw line compared to the total number of field goal attempts.
  
  
  
  
  
• Why it's important:
  A higher FTA Rate can indicate a team's ability to draw fouls, which can lead to more scoring opportunities at the free throw line. It can also reflect a team's shooting style, as a team that favors drives to the basket may have a higher FTA Rate
  
  
  

Top FTA Rate Players in this draft class

• Adou Thiero- 69.2
• Collin Murray-Boyles- 55.6
• Derik Queen- 54.6
• Jeremiah Fears- 51.8
• Cedric Coward- 50.8
• Kasparas Jakucionis- 49.6
• Mark Sears- 47.8
• Sion James- 46.1
• Yaxel Lendeborg- 44.9
• Cooper Flagg- 42.0
• Thomas Sorber- 42.0
• Dylan Harper- 41.9
• Jase Richardson- 41.8
• Liam Mcneely- 41.0
• Khaman Maluach- 40.3

These are the top 15 players at getting to the line in this draft class

This is the last analysis I’ll post for now. Let me know if y’all like looking through these and I’ll keep posting them. A lot more data out there and I enjoy looking at it all.

What would interest me is how the analytics looked for last year's class and compare it with how the players did in their rookie years.

[Dejounte]

Had to make modifications after watching more tape… Jase is ridiculously talented

Assumption: Flagg and Harper are both gone.


First choice with our pick: Kon
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Sorber
If Sorber’s gone, then Jase Richardson
if Jase’s gone, then Egor Demin
if Egor is gone, then CMB
… I call this the “High IQ” group and the scenario I feel is most likely to happen


Second choice with our pick: VJ Edgecombe
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Sorber
if Sorber’s gone, then CMB
if CMB’s gone, then Fleming
… I call this group, “Clamps”


Third choice with our pick: Jase Richardson
Then, first choice with the Atl pick: Sorber
If Sorber’s gone, then Egor Demin,
If Egor’s gone, then any of Fleming, Beringer, Carter Bryant
… I call this group “Spurs Way” because I could def see them doing something like this


Fourth choice with our pick: Sorber
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Fleming
if Fleming’s gone, then CMB
if CMB’s gone, then Noa Essengue
if Noa’s gone, then Yaxel Lendeborg
… I call this group, “Physicality”


Fifth choice with our pick: Derik Queen
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Jase Richardson
if Jase’s gone, then Egor Demin
if Egor’s gone, then Ben Saraf
if Ben’s gone, then Danny Wolf
… I call this group the “Showtime Spurs”. I view this as the most unlikely scenario.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Primo was BPA??? Come on man. That was a big swing, and a big miss. I understand the reason (it took me months to finally reconcile with myself), but nah, Primo was NOT BPA. Missing out on obvious BPA's Sengun, Duren, even Jalen Johnson (questionable character* but obviously very talented). Spurs concept of BPA is suspect.

Ex is right though. BPA in the context of the NBA draft clearly includes a level of projection, as in who's the player that we expect would develop the most. Otherwise, in the literal meaning of BPA, they'd be drafting upper classmen in the lottery instead of freshmen.

Spurs ed up in their evaluation, sure, but Primo clearly was the so called BPA to them at that point of the draft.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Analytics Deep Dive 11


DRAPM, short for Defensive Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus, is a basketball statistic that measures a player's defensive impact relative to the team's performance on a per-100 possessions basis, after accounting for the quality of their teammates and opponents. It's part of the broader RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus) system, which also includes ORAPM (Offensive RAPM). RAPM is considered a more unbiased and accurate method of evaluating player performance compared to traditional box score statistics


Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Thank you Scottspurs for your data!

Surprising to see Kon and Queen both have such good defense impact. But Fleming is not in the list.

Not sure how accurate this data is. Because most experts say Fleming is better defender than Queen.




1. What is RAPM?

• RAPM is an advanced statistic that attempts to isolate a player's impact on a team's scoring margin, controlling for the strength of their teammates and opponents.
  
• It's calculated using play-by-play data from multiple seasons, typically the last three, and uses a linear regression model to estimate a player's contribution.
  
• RAPM is considered a more robust measure of player impact than traditional plus-minus because it accounts for the quality of the players on the court at any given time.
  

2. How is DRAPM calculated?

• DRAPM is a component of RAPM, specifically measuring a player's defensive contribution.
• It's calculated using the same principles as RAPM, but focusing on the defensive impact.
• The calculation involves analyzing each possession, considering the players on the court, their roles (offensive or defensive), and the resulting score differential.
  

3. Why is DRAPM important?

• DRAPM helps to quantify a player's defensive impact beyond what's visible in traditional box scores.
• It provides a more objective assessment of a player's defensive capabilities, especially in the context of their specific team and matchups.
• It can be used to identify defensive strengths and weaknesses, as well as to compare players on a more equitable basis.
  

4. How to interpret DRAPM?

• A higher DRAPM value generally indicates a greater defensive impact.
  
• DRAPM is typically expressed in points per 100 possessions, allowing for easier comparison between players.
  
• By comparing a player's DRAPM to the league average or to other players, you can gain insight into their defensive effectiveness.
  

In essence, DRAPM is a powerful tool for basketball analysts and fans who want to go beyond traditional box score statistics to understand a player's true impact on the defensive end of the court


Here are the top DRAPM players in this draft class (excluding international players)

• Thomas Sorber- 6.1
• Kam Jones- 5.0
• Cooper Flagg- 5.0
• Sion James- 4.4
• Walter Clayton Jr.- 4.3
• Derik Queen- 4.1
• Danny Wolf- 4.0
• Kon Knueppel- 3.9
• Carter Bryant- 3.6
• Jase Richardson- 3.4
• Nique Clifford- 3.4
• Liam Mcneely- 3.2
• Tyrese Proctor- 3.2
• Adou Thiero- 3.2
• Chaz Lanier- 3.1
• Kobe Johnson- 3.1
• Collin Murray-Boyles- 3.1
• Boogie Fland- 2.8
• Khaman Maluach- 2.7
• Miles Byrd 2.5

Top 20 DRAPM prospects


Some other curious grades:


Dylan Harper has a negative score with -1.1. 5th worst out of every prospect in this class


Maxime Raynaud also had a negative score with -0.8


Yaxel Lendeborg scored a lot lower than I thought he would with a 0.6

[exstatic]

ah yes. sorry that I didn't ask for your permission to post some points about a player. didn't know the rules.

It’s a discussion forum. We discuss.

[scottspurs]

What would interest me is how the analytics looked for last year's class and compare it with how the players did in their rookie years.

I can do this but I’ll keep it to top 10 and Stephon Castle

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Based on Scottspurs data, Carter Bryant is valuable.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I can do this but I’ll keep it to top 10 and Stephon Castle

Thank you Scottspurs for your effort!

I'm not surprised teams do this kind data for the past several years and then compare to their actual performance in the NBA.

[RC_Drunkford]

Carter Bryant looks more NBA ready than Fleming and also fits the 3-and-D wing type we are looking for. He reminds me of Risacher

[Mr. Body]

I think we are all sleeping on Noa Essengue. (I did as well)

it's likely because the international class isn't that intriguing this year and so the focus is on the college players.

but I assume teams and scouts still do their homework in Europe and so I will try to point at a few things they currently register:

(note: the stats on tankathon just show his numbers in the Eurocup compe ion from September last year to January)

Noa has been playing quite well lately in the German league. over the last ten games he averaged 12.4 PPG on very good shooting splits and on increased volume. (57%FG, 38% 3P on 11-29, 70%FT) plus 5.1 RPG in 24 MPG.

so, to put things into perspective: the youngest player in the draft seems to develop nicely, especially in the departments of concerns. his team (currently 2nd in the league) will make the PO, so his season will likely go on till end of May.

btw. Noa meassured great for a combo forward in the Baskeball Without Borders combine. (6'9" w/o shoes, 6'11" wingspan, 9'3" standing reach. 35.5" vertical).

so, I assume he is much higher on the draft boards of the teams, than on the mocks.

yes, he ist still raw and still very thin, but team will consider that he is a year younger than many of the freshmen are and project his development.

so, is he a candidate for pick 8? maybe.
for pick 15? you bet.

Yeah, he's the sort of turn the Spurs have done historically. I would think he's more likely than a Fleming and may be on the same tier as a Bryant in terms of growth possibilities. I wouldn't be surprised at all with the second pick.

[Mr. Body]

Ex is right though. BPA in the context of the NBA draft clearly includes a level of projection, as in who's the player that we expect would develop the most. Otherwise, in the literal meaning of BPA, they'd be drafting upper classmen in the lottery instead of freshmen.

Spurs ed up in their evaluation, sure, but Primo clearly was the so called BPA to them at that point of the draft.

Slight point: Sengun was clearly the BPA in the draft, even if teams were passing him. His accomplishments were significant at that point. His playing type seemed to push teams off.

Primo did seem like a good kid, and he impressed with leadership at the draft combine. I can see him being a good person with a compulsion that was anti-social and very disruptive.

As for who was left, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones (iirc) were there, but Murphy had a pretty questionable year at Virginia and Jones wasn't really on anyone's radar. It wasn't a terrible swing at a very young player with size who was taking on increased duties at Alabama later in their year. It just got completely derailed by whatever was going on with him.

[Mr. Body]

I don't get why Carter Bryant didn't get more run with Arizona. Signaling from coaches that he couldn't be trusted to do more than he did, when lots of freshmen were doing much more. I'm not out on him but it's big question marks.

[scottspurs]

How this Class stacks up against past classes


DRAPM- Defensive Metric


2025 2024

Thomas Sorber- 6.1	Jamal Shead- 6.0
Kam Jones- 5.0	Ryan Dunn- 4.2
Cooper Flagg- 5.0	Reed Sheppard- 4.0
Sion James- 4.4	Devin Carter- 4.0
Walter Clayton Jr.- 4.3	Kyshawn George- 3.8
Derik Queen- 4.1	Zach Edey- 3.2
Danny Wolf- 4.0	Dalton Knecht- 3.2
Kon Knueppel- 3.9	Donovan Clingdan- 3.1
Carter Bryant- 3.6	Stephon Castle- 3.1
Jase Richardson- 3.4	Kevin McCullar Jr- 2.9

2023 2022

Julian Phillips- 7.5	Tari Eason- 5.0
Adem Boma- 4.5	Chet Holmgren- 3.9
Brandon Miller- 4.3	Walker Kessler- 3.8
Jaime Jaquez- 3.6	Kennedy Chandler- 3.8
Gradey - 2.9
Anthony Black- 2.7	TyTy Washington- 3.6
Ricky Council IV- 2.6	Paolo Banchero- 3.3
Baylor Scheierman- 2.5	Christian Braun- 3.1
Tristan De Silva- 2.5	Trevor Keels- 2.8
Terrence Shannon Jr- 2.0	Christian Koloko- 2.8

[montgod]

Slight point: Sengun was clearly the BPA in the draft, even if teams were passing him. His accomplishments were significant at that point. His playing type seemed to push teams off.

Primo did seem like a good kid, and he impressed with leadership at the draft combine. I can see him being a good person with a compulsion that was anti-social and very disruptive.

As for who was left, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones (iirc) were there, but Murphy had a pretty questionable year at Virginia and Jones wasn't really on anyone's radar. It wasn't a terrible swing at a very young player with size who was taking on increased duties at Alabama later in their year. It just got completely derailed by whatever was going on with him.

Good analysis. I'd also put Jalen Johnson in there as a possible BPA w/Sengun.

I think how Primo performed in the draft scrimmages is what put him over others in Spurs eyes at the time. Also think the Spurs current team make up made them go for him vs a big like Sengun or a possible issues with Jalen knowing they probably wouldn't be getting true minutes at that time.

[montgod]

Slight point: Sengun was clearly the BPA in the draft, even if teams were passing him. His accomplishments were significant at that point. His playing type seemed to push teams off.

Primo did seem like a good kid, and he impressed with leadership at the draft combine. I can see him being a good person with a compulsion that was anti-social and very disruptive.

As for who was left, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones (iirc) were there, but Murphy had a pretty questionable year at Virginia and Jones wasn't really on anyone's radar. It wasn't a terrible swing at a very young player with size who was taking on increased duties at Alabama later in their year. It just got completely derailed by whatever was going on with him.

Good analysis. I'd also put Jalen Johnson in there as a possible BPA w/Sengun.

I think how Primo performed in the draft scrimmages is what put him over others in Spurs eyes at the time. Also think the Spurs current team make up made them go for him vs a big like Sengun or a possible issues with Jalen knowing they probably wouldn't be getting true minutes at that time.

[Mr. Body]

Good analysis. I'd also put Jalen Johnson in there as a possible BPA w/Sengun.

I think how Primo performed in the draft scrimmages is what put him over others in Spurs eyes at the time. Also think the Spurs current team make up made them go for him vs a big like Sengun or a possible issues with Jalen knowing they probably wouldn't be getting true minutes at that time.

I forgot Jalen Johnson was that year. He quit on Duke and Coach K in the middle of the college basketball season. After Kawhi, I doubt they were ever considering him.

[John B]

I forgot Jalen Johnson was that year. He quit on Duke and Coach K in the middle of the college basketball season. After Kawhi, I doubt they were ever considering him.

The question on BPA vs Fit came up because somebody pointed out that the Spurs always do BPA. I disagree because they were swinging big on Primo to be someone who will be “special” and not the obvious general consensus BPA Şengün who had accomplished much more in Europe and seemed to be the safe pick, or the equivalent of BPA to me. The Spurscwas desperate on getting a replacement Franchise Player so they took a big swing. Regardless of what happened next, that was still a big swing and not conventional. That’s my question on BPA vs Fit.

[scottspurs]

How this Class stacks up against past classes


Win Shares

2025	2024
Cooper Flagg- 8.4	Zach Edey- 10.4
Ryan Kalkbrenner- 7.1	Cam Spencer- 7.9
Nique Clifford- 7.0	Tristen Newton- 7.4
Kon Knueppel- 6.9	KJ Simpson- 7.2
Yaxel Lendeborg- 6.8	Daron Holmes II- 6.9
Johni Broome- 6.8	RJ Davis- 6.7
Walter Clayton Jr- 6.6	Terrence Shannon Jr.- 6.3
Derik Queen- 5.9	Jamal Shead- 6.3
Eric Dixon- 5.8	Devin Carter- 6.0
Kam Jones- 4.8	Stephon Castle- 4.3

2023	2022
Marcus Sasser- 7.2	Keegan Murray- 8.6
Trayce Jackson-Davis- 7.1	Orlando Robinson- 7.1
Jaime Jaquez Jr- 7.1	Chet Holmgren- 6.3
Brandon Miller- 6.9	Mark Williams- 6.3
Daron Holmes II- 6.8	EJ Liddell- 6.3
Adama Sanogo- 6.7	Ochai Agbaji- 6.2
Oscar Tshiebwe- 6.6	Bennedict Mathurin- 6.2
Drew Timme- 6.5	Wendell Moore Jr- 6.2
Jarace Walker- 5.2	Paolo Banchero- 6.1
Gradey - 4.9	Christian Braun- 6.0

I can post more comparisons like this if y’all like. I think the most translatable ones have always been Rebounding. This also doesn’t factor in International prospects, G League Ignite Alums, and the Thompson Twins that played in that Academy.

[exstatic]

I forgot Jalen Johnson was that year. He quit on Duke and Coach K in the middle of the college basketball season. After Kawhi, I doubt they were ever considering him.

He also moved around a lot, going to 4 HSs

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Thank you Scottspurs for your efforts! Please post more.

Thank you!

[Manu&Duncan fan]

The question on BPA vs Fit came up because somebody pointed out that the Spurs always do BPA. I disagree because they were swinging big on Primo to be someone who will be “special” and not the obvious general consensus BPA Şengün who had accomplished much more in Europe and seemed to be the safe pick, or the equivalent of BPA to me. The Spurscwas desperate on getting a replacement Franchise Player so they took a big swing. Regardless of what happened next, that was still a big swing and not conventional. That’s my question on BPA vs Fit.

BPA means BPA for spurs. So, Fit is part of the equation. Character is part of the Fit equation.

We all know Primo is a failure. But at that time, FO must have determined that he was the BPA.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

For this draft, our BPA is different from the past years since we have officially have a big 3.

That's why I would pick the BPAs to compliment them and start competing immediately.

[spurraider21]

I don't get why Carter Bryant didn't get more run with Arizona. Signaling from coaches that he couldn't be trusted to do more than he did, when lots of freshmen were doing much more. I'm not out on him but it's big question marks.

he was the only freshman in their rotation at all

[Mr. Body]

he was the only freshman in their rotation at all

It's very clear I said freshmen throughout the country.