Should Spurs make a run at Scoot?

[rascal]

I do'nt believe there can be a dominant, small player (like scoot) in the NBA anymore, a guy that bring you ships... There's bigger talented player at every postion nowadays, including on defense. And if you can't really shoot at that... Whether on NBA talent or at ude, I don't believe Scoot is a player spurs should and are targetting, and certainly not spend many FRPs on. You got Wemby, now bring proven talent with your assets.

There is film of Scoot driving and scoring on Wemby. Scoot will be fine.

[rascal]

You don't think Parker would be good today?

Parker is 6'2"

[JPB]

There is film of Scoot driving and scoring on Wemby. Scoot will be fine.

And there's film of Scoot being blocked 3 times by Wemby in the same game.

[JPB]

You don't think Parker would be good today?

Parker is 6'2"

Parker was lightning fast in his prime but never really was a superstar caliber player (even tough he finished 5th once at the MVP). You needed Tim and Manu around. And I actually believe he wouldn't have the same career nowadays as a non real 3pt threat. We just do'nt see that type of smaller dominant player today in the NBA. They can get their point like Irving or Lillard can (both 6"2) but are not what you want as your top 2 guys, like you don't want Irving or Lillard because of defense mismatches, specillay in the POs... The Doncic-Luka was terrible the 14 games or so they played together, mosty due to defensive issues... Reason why Miller might go #2 just out of size. And Irvng or Lillard can actually shoot the 3 compared to TP.

[rascal]

And there's film of Scoot being blocked 3 times by Wemby in the same game.

Scoot was able to score over Wemby during that same game with his quickness. He isn't too small to be effective.

[R. DeMurre]

Scoot was able to score over Wemby during that same game with his quickness. He isn't too small to be effective.

Why do you think Scoot's advanced stats didn't improve from year 1 to year 2 at Ignite? Doesn't it seem like his impact numbers should've jumped after a year of experience and acclimation? Do his net negative numbers and poor WS/48 not worry you at all? Even on his own team, which had a losing record, he's near the bottom in terms of impact stats. To me, that's a worrying fact for a lottery pick.

https://www.basketball-reference.com...endesc01d.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com.../GLI/2023.html

[JPB]

Why do you think Scoot's advanced stats didn't improve from year 1 to year 2 at Ignite? Doesn't it seem like his impact numbers should've jumped after a year of experience and acclimation? Do his net negative numbers and poor WS/48 not worry you at all? Even on his own team, which had a losing record, he's near the bottom in terms of impact stats. To me, that's a worrying fact for a lottery pick.

https://www.basketball-reference.com...endesc01d.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com.../GLI/2023.html

3pt %, FT %, TS%, eFG% are all worrisome elements, notably his very subpar eFG (45.5% ). For someone who's supposed to be dominating, he didn't really in the Gleague. Hes' still young but WYSIWYG with Scoot. he's NBA ready physically but I'm not sure there's that much place for big improvement in his play.

[Atl Spur]

Prime Derrick Rose says hi

[Ariel]

Prime Derrick Rose says hi

Prime Derrick Rose played almost 15 years ago and didn't settle for mid range jump shots.
I think if we're trading for a high pick (say 6) the only target that makes sense is Anthony Black, and in the late lottery/mid teens Bufkin seems like a good fit with upside. And only is the price is right.

[exstatic]

I do'nt believe there can be a dominant, small player (like scoot) in the NBA anymore, a guy that bring you ships... There's bigger talented player at every postion nowadays, including on defense. And if you can't really shoot at that... Whether on NBA talent or at ude, I don't believe Scoot is a player spurs should and are targetting, and certainly not spend many FRPs on. You got Wemby, now bring proven talent with your assets.

Not without deadly, assassin level shooting like Curry.

[exstatic]

Prime Derrick Rose says hi

He’s not Rose, Wall, or Westbrook, athletically. A clear, noticeable step down, doesn’t shoot well, doesn’t play defense for .

[rankingtear]

I don't like getting Scoot. It feels like the worst decision right now. We have prime opportunity to stretch Wemby playmaking in his developmental years with no pressure to win. Throwing a high usage guard in there that require those reps seems counter intuitive. We have the best ballhandling true frontcourt in the future and a pnr scoring wing. We are in pole position to build the modern future proof NBA lineup one without a small guard. He is not for us. He needs his own team to run.

[Mr. Body]

Denver acting like they figured it out when it's really the whole league sucks right now instead of them.

[scott]

Prime Derrick Rose played almost 15 years ago and didn't settle for mid range jump shots.
I think if we're trading for a high pick (say 6) the only target that makes sense is Anthony Black, and in the late lottery/mid teens Bufkin seems like a good fit with upside. And only is the price is right.

I'm more and more of the frame of mind that the only players worth paying the cost of moving up to somewhere like #6 would be one of the Thompson twins, but maybe only Amen, should they be available there.

Black is a fine player, but IMO not worth moving up for. Amen provides you that "2nd star" potential (if what timvp said of the FO's view on him is true) whereas I don't think Black does. I personally wouldn't do it, but to me that's the only scenario that is plausible at this point.

To be clear, Black is a player I'd be happy taking had we landed 6th or 7th in the lottery. I think he'll be a very fine, Derrick White-like player in the league, but I just can't see him developing into an all-star, and thus not worth paying the kings ransom for. Amen, though he has a much lower floor, IMO, has the ceiling to become a star (though I personally wouldn't bet on it... though timvp's reporting suggests the Spurs are believers).

[Mr. Body]

Have you ever watched OTE play? It's absolutely awful. They don't run offensive sets and even then the Thompson twins aren't as effective as you'd like. It's a lot of transition baskets because there's no one plays defense. And even if the Thompsons have 'great tools' they often get lost on who they're suposed to cover. In a YMCA league. Lose their man, looking the wrong way. Other players have to push them to where they need to go.

When I said the player the Spurs pick might have to play in the G-League, I met a lot of disagreement, but these two are who I was talking about.

You absolutely do not want to spend any capital drafting them. Are they worth taking in the late lottery, given their athleticism and foundational skills? Sure. But not where they will be taken. They will require so much tuning up to just be basically effective on an NBA court, and even then their holes are glaring. Defenses will sag off them. They won't know the basics on how to read defenses or how to react to what offenses are doing. Getting them along to understand pick-n-roll coverage will take time, and that's just the start.

People don't realize how far behind they are. And they've been 'playing professionally' for two years and are still way behind. And cannot shoot.

They are very prime to become busts.

[Mr. Body]

You see how Kuminga was unplayable in the postseason? He was so bad, so ineffective, Kerr couldn't put him out there. And he's far ahead of the Ignite player curve. He's the best they've turned out so far.

OTE is like the kiddie version of Ignite. The Chuck E Cheese version.

[Ariel]

I'm more and more of the frame of mind that the only players worth paying the cost of moving up to somewhere like #6 would be one of the Thompson twins, but maybe only Amen, should they be available there.

Black is a fine player, but IMO not worth moving up for. Amen provides you that "2nd star" potential (if what timvp said of the FO's view on him is true) whereas I don't think Black does. I personally wouldn't do it, but to me that's the only scenario that is plausible at this point.

To be clear, Black is a player I'd be happy taking had we landed 6th or 7th in the lottery. I think he'll be a very fine, Derrick White-like player in the league, but I just can't see him developing into an all-star, and thus not worth paying the kings ransom for. Amen, though he has a much lower floor, IMO, has the ceiling to become a star (though I personally wouldn't bet on it... though timvp's reporting suggests the Spurs are believers).

Personally I wouldn't touch the Thompsons, I have no confidence whatsoever in their production considering the compe ion, though I will give to you that the Spurs are in a much better position to make an assessment on them since they can work them out (don't know if they did) and have inside info from OTE. So they're not an option in my book, though I'll admit they may be for the Spurs and their resources.
As for Black, yes, I do agree he's not the archetype you usually look for in the high lottery, but he's got so many traits that would be perfect for the Spurs (bball IQ, ball handling, passing, defense, ability to get to the paint and finish, effort, character, size, youth) that if he improves his outside shooting a bit (he's at 30% on 3s and 70% FT) to close to league average he'd be a tremendous core piece. I think Black could be Sochan's backcourt twin more so than White's, if we can get him without an outrageous overpay I'm all for it.

[exstatic]

I'm more and more of the frame of mind that the only players worth paying the cost of moving up to somewhere like #6 would be one of the Thompson twins, but maybe only Amen, should they be available there.

Black is a fine player, but IMO not worth moving up for. Amen provides you that "2nd star" potential (if what timvp said of the FO's view on him is true) whereas I don't think Black does. I personally wouldn't do it, but to me that's the only scenario that is plausible at this point.

To be clear, Black is a player I'd be happy taking had we landed 6th or 7th in the lottery. I think he'll be a very fine, Derrick White-like player in the league, but I just can't see him developing into an all-star, and thus not worth paying the kings ransom for. Amen, though he has a much lower floor, IMO, has the ceiling to become a star (though I personally wouldn't bet on it... though timvp's reporting suggests the Spurs are believers).

So,you’d pick Black 6th or 7th if that’s where we landed, but wouldn’t pick him if we traded for 6, having already acquired our stratospheric ceiling player? That seems bass ackwards, like you should swing for Amen having not won the lottery, but not select such a low floor player by spending beaucoup assets as one to place around your unicorn.

I’ve actually laughed at stuff he said, like last year before the draft, he placed Malaki at 21 and Wesley at 26, and then in his post draft analysis blasted the Spurs for picking them at almost those exact spots, but Dean’s take on upside vs.high floor is pretty sound, especially with younger players in the top 10. His case and example was Franz Wagner, selected #8 in his draft, but probably a top 3 player in that draft.

[scott]

Have you ever watched OTE play? It's absolutely awful. They don't run offensive sets and even then the Thompson twins aren't as effective as you'd like. It's a lot of transition baskets because there's no one plays defense. And even if the Thompsons have 'great tools' they often get lost on who they're suposed to cover. In a YMCA league. Lose their man, looking the wrong way. Other players have to push them to where they need to go.

When I said the player the Spurs pick might have to play in the G-League, I met a lot of disagreement, but these two are who I was talking about.

You absolutely do not want to spend any capital drafting them. Are they worth taking in the late lottery, given their athleticism and foundational skills? Sure. But not where they will be taken. They will require so much tuning up to just be basically effective on an NBA court, and even then their holes are glaring. Defenses will sag off them. They won't know the basics on how to read defenses or how to react to what offenses are doing. Getting them along to understand pick-n-roll coverage will take time, and that's just the start.

People don't realize how far behind they are. And they've been 'playing professionally' for two years and are still way behind. And cannot shoot.

They are very prime to become busts.

Separate yourself for a moment from the personal opinions you've formed on players with the reporting that timvp has done on the FO's view of these same players. We can have a discussion about what you feel the Spurs should do based on the evaluations you've made on players, which is fine and fun. There can also be another layer of discussion about what the Spurs should/could/would do based on what we know of the evaluations THEY have made on players. Until such time provided information to the contrary, I'm going on the information provided that the Spurs were enamored by Amen's upside.

It makes zero sense to trade a king's random for Black, who has very little star potential. A player like him makes perfect sense to draft in the range he is talked about (I posted separately how teams would often be better off with picking the high-floor prospect at 6-10 rather than the massive swings they usually take), but it makes zero sense to give up multiple assets for him. *If* the Spurs believe Amen truly has star potential, then you can start to build the case for packaging assets to put yourself in a position to get him.

I also, quite clearly, said in my post that I wouldn't make this move. However, it still remains the only plausible reason to move up in such a drastic manner. This, after all, is the same argument made to move up for Scoot. If we found out the Spurs are super high on Cam Whitmore and in their professional judgement view him as the next Nephew, then you can make the same argument about moving up for him. This extends to any name you want to throw out there, it just so happens that Amen's name is the one timvp reported the Spurs are high on.

This is a fun website, but the Spurs aren't scouting this message board for ideas. It's fun to discuss what we would do if we were the GM, but there is also value in gaming out what the Spurs would do (since they have the actual control).

[scott]

So,you’d pick Black 6th or 7th if that’s where we landed, but wouldn’t pick him if we traded for 6, having already acquired our stratospheric ceiling player? That seems bass ackwards, like you should swing for Amen having not won the lottery, but not select such a low floor player by spending beaucoup assets as one to place around your unicorn.

I’ve actually laughed at stuff he said, like last year before the draft, he placed Malaki at 21 and Wesley at 26, and then in his post draft analysis blasted the Spurs for picking them at almost those exact spots, but Dean’s take on upside vs.high floor is pretty sound, especially with younger players in the top 10. His case and example was Franz Wagner, selected #8 in his draft, but probably a top 3 player in that draft.

This is a misinterpretation of what I said. I'd be happy picking Black 6th or 7th, but I wouldn't move up to 6 to take him at all, considering what we would have to give up to take him. It just isn't worth it. Having won the Wemby sweepstakes actually plays very little into the thought process at all. Black isn't worth paying the price for (which seems like this is not a controversial statement, even to Black's most ardent supporters). Only a player with star potential would be (and even then, it's a hefty price to pay). Whether that player is Amen or any other name you want to insert - I use Amen because that's the player timvp reported the Spurs are high on. I don't see anyone in this draft worth moving up in the 2-10 range for.

[scott]

Personally I wouldn't touch the Thompsons, I have no confidence whatsoever in their production considering the compe ion, though I will give to you that the Spurs are in a much better position to make an assessment on them since they can work them out (don't know if they did) and have inside info from OTE. So they're not an option in my book, though I'll admit they may be for the Spurs and their resources.

That's the main part of the point I'm making. While you and I (and most on this board) don't like the Thompson's, our opinions don't really matter. Only the Spurs opinions do. We were told they were high on the Thompsons, specifically Amen. Maybe that has changed.

As for Black, yes, I do agree he's not the archetype you usually look for in the high lottery, but he's got so many traits that would be perfect for the Spurs (bball IQ, ball handling, passing, defense, ability to get to the paint and finish, effort, character, size, youth) that if he improves his outside shooting a bit (he's at 30% on 3s and 70% FT) to close to league average he'd be a tremendous core piece. I think Black could be Sochan's backcourt twin more so than White's, if we can get him without an outrageous overpay I'm all for it.

I agree with this 100% - Black would be a great fit. I see him as a younger Derrick White in a lot of ways. I also think Derrick White would be a great fit here if we could somehow get him back. But at the price it would take to get him, it isn't worth it IMO.

[Mr. Body]

I have Anthony Black as number three in this draft after Scoot. I think Henderson will be a high volume, inefficient star for a marginal team. If Black gets tagged by the wrong team, he'll malinger. If he goes to a team with budding options and a scheme that's not devoted to iso-ball, he's going to be amazing.

Black is probably the smartest player in this draft -- which is kind of funny, since in interviews he comes off like a dorky teenager. On the court, his processing is often astoundingly fast. Alrready passing ahead while getting a steal, seeing gaps before they've opened. It's really ridiculous how lightning-fast, how instantaneous his reads are. Does he need polishing? Absolutely.

You just don't get this box of high-level creation with high-level perimeter defense and help defense. He's like Kawhi in digging out steals in off-ball situations. Like Sochan, he can turn on the brutal relentlessness in end game situations. All this with a 6'7" frame that has this really strong base.

The only reason I would hesitate about grabbing him is the fit next to Sochan. On defense, the Black-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama-Collins lineup would be ferocious. On offense, you have two guys who are dynamic and multi-dimensional but may always struggle as shooters.

Of course, the price. I feel like he's getting bobbled around in mock drafts with teams wanting Thompsons and need-to-be-activated PFs above him. Which is fine: teams are stretching for stars. Washington may have promised Wallace. I think Black will go to Utah.

Ultimately he's going to be way too expensive to try to get. But, yeah, I have him above a lot of players who I think will top out or just be very mediocre, but then I've thought that way about the non-Wemby top end of the draft for a while now.

[Mr. Body]

Also, nothing against timvp, but nothing of that roster of supposed targets for the Spurs should be adhered to. Like I've said, if you can see the tiger, you're not the prey. They're not giving away what they want to do.

[scott]

I have Anthony Black as number three in this draft after Scoot. I think Henderson will be a high volume, inefficient star for a marginal team. If Black gets tagged by the wrong team, he'll malinger. If he goes to a team with budding options and a scheme that's not devoted to iso-ball, he's going to be amazing.

Black is probably the smartest player in this draft -- which is kind of funny, since in interviews he comes off like a dorky teenager. On the court, his processing is often astoundingly fast. Alrready passing ahead while getting a steal, seeing gaps before they've opened. It's really ridiculous how lightning-fast, how instantaneous his reads are. Does he need polishing? Absolutely.

You just don't get this box of high-level creation with high-level perimeter defense and help defense. He's like Kawhi in digging out steals in off-ball situations. Like Sochan, he can turn on the brutal relentlessness in end game situations. All this with a 6'7" frame that has this really strong base.

The only reason I would hesitate about grabbing him is the fit next to Sochan. On defense, the Black-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama-Collins lineup would be ferocious. On offense, you have two guys who are dynamic and multi-dimensional but may always struggle as shooters.

Of course, the price. I feel like he's getting bobbled around in mock drafts with teams wanting Thompsons and need-to-be-activated PFs above him. Which is fine: teams are stretching for stars. Washington may have promised Wallace. I think Black will go to Utah.

Ultimately he's going to be way too expensive to try to get. But, yeah, I have him above a lot of players who I think will top out or just be very mediocre, but then I've thought that way about the non-Wemby top end of the draft for a while now.

You're one of the sharpest posters on this board, but you seem unable to separate your own views on players from what the strategy could/should/would be based on the Spurs view of the same players. Which is too bad for me, because I'd actually really enjoy reading your approach on things based on how the Spurs view talent.

[exstatic]

This is a misinterpretation of what I said. I'd be happy picking Black 6th or 7th, but I wouldn't move up to 6 to take him at all, considering what we would have to give up to take him. It just isn't worth it. Having won the Wemby sweepstakes actually plays very little into the thought process at all. Black isn't worth paying the price for (which seems like this is not a controversial statement, even to Black's most ardent supporters). Only a player with star potential would be (and even then, it's a hefty price to pay). Whether that player is Amen or any other name you want to insert - I use Amen because that's the player timvp reported the Spurs are high on. I don't see anyone in this draft worth moving up in the 2-10 range for.

timvp’s source was/is an EC GM who THINKS the Spurs would be interested in Amen. Not exactly straight from the horse’s mouth.

As for the moving up, it would depend on the price. The assets I’d place on the table are:
CHA FRP
CHI FRP
TOR FRP
ATL swap
BOS swap

Technically, you can’t trade a swap, but since you control the choice of picks, you can trade the better of the two in advance without knowing which will be better.

ORL can pick 3 of the above. We have Wemby and the two unprotected ATL picks, whatever two options they don’t pick, plus #6 this year. If I’m selecting, I take the Toronto pick, and both swaps.

If that doesn’t suit them they can pound sand, and pick 6 and 11.