Election Prediction Thread

[TheMadHatter]

^ I'm taking a personal day on November 5th. Either crying and masturbating at the same time, or deliriously happy.

I'm seriously contemplating heading out to wherever Obama makes his acceptance speech. I want to be there for that moment.

Otherwise I'm gonna get ridiculously faced with my fellow Demoncrats and Anti-Christ Obama supporters

[florige]

I'm seriously contemplating heading out to wherever Obama makes his acceptance speech. I want to be there for that moment.

Otherwise I'm gonna get ridiculously faced with my fellow Demoncrats and Anti-Christ Obama supporters

Probably in his home state I'm guessing. Not sure though.

[Bartleby]

Obama will take all Kerry states. He will pick up the following Bush 2004 states:

Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia and Missouri

I can see that, but I'd replace Missouri with North Carolina.

Obama will win with 344 Electoral votes.

[balli]

I don't think we're going to see a Bradley effect. Few Dems (which is half the nation) are racist and neither are independents. Here, in 2008, most [closet] racists are lurking in the dark wings of the GOP anyway. In addition I think there's going to be a heavier African-American turnout than otherwise expected.

[Shastafarian]

I can see that, but I'd replace Missouri with North Carolina.

Obama will win with 344 Electoral votes.

I think we had the same map goin. The worst case I could do and still think it plausible was Obama getting 306.

[TheMadHatter]

There is not going to be a Bradley affect. Those who won't vote for Obama because of his race will just say they are voting for McCain because he is more experienced. They have no reason to lie and say they are voting for Obama when they aren't, that makes no sense to me in this general election.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm seriously contemplating heading out to wherever Obama makes his acceptance speech. I want to be there for that moment.

Otherwise I'm gonna get ridiculously faced with my fellow Demoncrats and Anti-Christ Obama supporters

Yeah good luck getting into that party. It'll probably be in Chicago. I plan on being in NM.

[MannyIsGod]

The Bradley effect is the most over hyped phenomenon I've ever seen in my life. 2% points. Thats what we're talking about. 2% points and its not even a sure thing that it ever existed.

[TheMadHatter]

Yeah good luck getting into that party. It'll probably be in Chicago. I plan on being in NM.

I might make the trip when he gets sworn into office. That would be worth seeing more than his acceptance speech actually.

[MannyIsGod]

I might make the trip when he gets sworn into office. That would be worth seeing more than his acceptance speech actually.

Oh god yes. I'm scheming to get into the Inauguration stuff but its going to be hard.

[DWest30]

From fivethirtyeight.com dated 10/17:

"So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n***er!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n***er."

In this economy, racism is officially a luxury. How is John McCain going to win if he can't win those voters? John Murtha's "racist" western Pennsylvania district, where this story takes place, is some of the roughest turf in the nation. But Barack Obama is on the ground and making inroads due to unusually strong organizing leadership."
(http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...nsylvania.html)

I think the "Bradley Effect" if it ever was real, wont play a part this election.

[Findog]

I'm seriously contemplating heading out to wherever Obama makes his acceptance speech. I want to be there for that moment.

Otherwise I'm gonna get ridiculously faced with my fellow Demoncrats and Anti-Christ Obama supporters

You live in Chicago? It's in Grant Park from what I understand.

[MannyIsGod]

From fivethirtyeight.com dated 10/17:

"So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n***er!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n***er."

In this economy, racism is officially a luxury. How is John McCain going to win if he can't win those voters? John Murtha's "racist" western Pennsylvania district, where this story takes place, is some of the roughest turf in the nation. But Barack Obama is on the ground and making inroads due to unusually strong organizing leadership."
(http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...nsylvania.html)

I think the "Bradley Effect" if it ever was real, wont play a part this election.

I've read that and OTHER stories that say basically the same thing. Its pretty damn insane.

[florige]

I wonder where McCain's acceptance speech will be my friends?

[Findog]

I think your right, but after 00 and 04 I can't help but worry about GOP voter suppression and massive e-voting fraud...e-voting problems are already happening and the GOP has set the stage to help justify massive voter suppression with the whole ACORN registration problems...despite the massive leads in the polls and what will be a sizeable lead in the exit polls on Nov 4th, I will be breathing a sigh of relief when Obama pulls it out...

Did you see the Palin-McCain joint interview with Brian Williams? They certainly don't act like they can count on massive electoral fraud.

[Findog]

I wonder where McCain's acceptance speech will be my friends?

Same place as the Phoenix Suns parade route for winning the NBA Championship. There's not going to be a lot of happy people along Jefferson and Washington Street on Election Night.

[florige]

Same place as the Phoenix Suns parade route for winning the NBA Championship. There's not going to be a lot of happy people along Jefferson and Washington Street on Election Night.

Poor AZ, stay getting screwed. I wonder if they are going to have a car with a picture of Obama on the front of the hood with some moron with a sledgehammer pounding the sand out of it?

[MannyIsGod]

IE

From Ben Smith's blog:

In the first house I visited, a huge Confederate flag that completely filled my field of view was tacked to the living room wall. Couldn't take my eyes off it as I launched into my standard Obama talk. The guy stopped me mid-sentence, "We're with Obama. He's the only one for the working man. Most of us around here are GM and GM is with Obama."

His neighbor was a postal worker. I almost missed the ceramic black lawn jockey on his porch, a relic of bygone days in many other parts of the state, but what was unmistakable was the household's political allegiance: a "Postal Workers Back Obama" yard sign was planted on the front lawn.

BTW there was no massive voter fraud in 04. Lets get past that please. Kerry lost because he sucked.

[DaDakota]

Obama in a landslide.

330+ Electoral votes

McSame - who cares.

Palin back to obscurity

DD

[RandomGuy]

I keep seeing the Whottt predictions in sigs and I figured a thread where we all predict that will happen.

BTW, My Avatar, le and sig are all open for bets if anyone wants to lay one out.

Obama will capture more than 50% of the popular vote nation wide.
Obama will win with over 330 EVs.
Obama will outperform polls in almost every single state.
Georgia and Arkansas will be much closer than anyone has figured for.
Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.
The race will be called before the West Coast is done voting.
The Democrats surpass the 60 seat threshold. (Senator Al Franken is funny as )

I think you are right on all counts.

FWIW, my wife is driving fellow Democrats to the polls, and every district in our county has done a door to door walkthrough of neighborhoods.

Participation in our little blue county will be VERY high.

[RandomGuy]

From fivethirtyeight.com dated 10/17:

"So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n***er!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n***er."

[Bartleby]

FWIW, my wife is driving fellow Democrats to the polls, and every district in our county has done a door to door walkthrough of neighborhoods.

Participation in our little blue county will be VERY high.

I'm planning on doing that here in PA (in a very red county).

[RandomGuy]

I'm seriously contemplating heading out to wherever Obama makes his acceptance speech. I want to be there for that moment.

Otherwise I'm gonna get ridiculously faced with my fellow Demoncrats and Anti-Christ Obama supporters

Yup. There will be a lot of hangovers in the fake, anti-American parts of the country.

[Centaur of the Sun]

Not exactly a radical EC prediction:

[MannyIsGod]

Obama will capture more than 50% of the popular vote nation wide.
Obama will win with over 330 EVs.
Obama will outperform polls in almost every single state.
Georgia and Arkansas will be much closer than anyone has figured for.
Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.
The race will be called before the West Coast is done voting.
The Democrats surpass the 60 seat threshold. (Senator Al Franken is funny as )

Still looking for bets!