Why the Spurs won't trade now, but will trade for a wing at deadline 2010.

[TD 21]

I doubt this happens. I'm guessing the 2010-2011 wing rotation looks like this: Jefferson and Mason (re-signed) starting, Ginobili (re-signed) and Hairston/Williams off the bench, and either McClinton, a 2010 draft pick, or a minimum or near minimum free agent inactive/D-league. I'd be surprised if Finley doesn't retire.

While I'm at it, I might as well put together the rest of my made up 2010-2011 roster. I'd be surprised if Ratliff doesn't retire. I'm guessing Bonner is not re-signed, and his salary/roster slot is used to sign Splitter. Obviously, this is without knowing what will happen with the Spurs 2010 draft picks, or with guys like Hairston and Williams who are on non-guaranteed contracts, or Haislip, who will be non-guaranteed by then as well, or what will happen with the development of Gist and McClinton (Spurs seem genuinely high on him, and I'm guessing without Finley and Bonner, they'll want another shooter. If he shows he can play some point, he'll probably have a good shot to make the roster) but as of this writing I see the roster looking like this:

Starters: PF- Duncan, SF- Jefferson, C- McDyess, SG- Mason, PG- Parker

Bench: SG- Ginobili, C/PF- Splitter, PG/SG- Hill, PF- Blair, SG/SF- Hairston, SF/SG- Williams, C/PF- Mahinmi

Inactive/D-League: PF- Haislip or PF/SF- Gist , SG- McClinton or 1st round draft pick (assuming it's kept)

In short, lots of continuity, which is a good thing. Younger players will most likely continue to move into or up in the rotation, a few more older players will be weeded out, and the payroll will likely stay within' the same vicinity.

[Blackjack]

Exactly ^

If they re-sign Finley (or a cheap option like him), Mason and Gino they will have the same depth as this year. If all of the new guys/rookies suck, they will go a different direction. But as for now, the problem you describe is the same problem they have this year. They have their starter in RJ.

I'm only willing to assume Manu and RJ to be here next year. Mason could very well be here and God knows how much Pop loves him some Finley, but they're both defensive liabilities who need to play alongside at least adequate defenders --preferably solid to quality defenders-- to be a net positive when they're on the floor.

What I look at is, if Manu and RJ are your wings, what kind of players do you want as your third and fourth wings; as it pertains to both this year and next?

I, myself, would think to go with a `stopper' as my third and a vet. min. spot-up shooter as my fourth. --Maybe even Fin.--

The `stopper' could very well be a need for the Spurs this year with RJ, a solid defender but not elite, being the only experienced option to throw at the best perimeter players out there. It's not a forgone conclusion that the combination of RJ and maybe Hairston couldn't get the job done, but it's a question mark nonetheless.

The perfect scenario would be to acquire a starter that could play Bowen to RJ's Jackson of '03, it's just not all that likely or feasible; A lock-down defender that warrants the type of minutes needed to lock down an opponent, much less one that could be considered in Bowen's league defensively, are few and far between, to say the least.

I like Mason a lot and am not advocating he needs to go, but I wonder if he'll thrive the way he did earlier in the season with him being much more of a periphery part; one who doesn't have the ball in his hand as often and is usually waiting for a kick-out.

He really excelled getting his rhythm off the dribble for his shot early in the year and if he's seeing less and less of that, what kind of fit will he be with RJ and Manu? I mean, his 3-point shooting would seem to be a good fit alongside their slashing ability but it's always seemed Roger excelled with more touches and a dribble to his shot.. That could just be me, though.

I think if Mason can net you a player that's as stingy defensively as Roger can be explosive offensively, who's capable of eating up third wing minutes, the Spurs might be better off going that route.

The Spurs are most likely going to close games with Parker, Manu and RJ on the perimeter, but having a defender to lessen the burden and keep Manu and RJ fresh and out of foul-trouble down the stretch, seems to be a better option than what Mason would seem to offer.

I'm skeptical whether Raja is what the Spurs need, at least at this point in his career, but with the Spurs' system and his history with Pop and the Spurs.. He might have just enough ability and savvy to get the job done for the upcoming year.

I'd definitely look for better, longer and younger --younger, not young-- options but his skill-set is definitely of one that would seem to thrive playing with the Spurs.

[DPG21920]

I don't disagree, but I was under the impression he was speaking about next year, when those players contracts are up.

My only point was that the Spurs seem to think it is fine for this year and I could see them bringing back Gino/Mase & Finley or similar vet min/league min player if Gist/Haislip/Malik...do not work out. Then, it would be the identical depth as this year which the Spurs seem to be ok with.

I am all for an upgrade, but that player must be able to play SG as well effectively because giving up Mason and/or Finley would hurt the depth there and Manu worries me more than RJ.

[Blackjack]

I don't disagree, but I was under the impression he was speaking about next year, when those players contracts are up.

It's all good.

I'll let mountainballer speak for his self but I'm pretty sure his main premise was upgrading the wing this year. We've both had concerns over the lack of a `stopper' outside RJ and bringing in next years roster gives a fuller picture of the financial situation and type of players that will be available under those cir stances.

I could be talking out of my ass, not too uncommon, but that's what I gathered from the OP.

I am all for an upgrade, but that player must be able to play SG as well effectively because giving up Mason and/or Finley would hurt the depth there and Manu worries me more than RJ.

I tend to look at RJ, and the way his game has evolved, much in the same way I view Jack of '03. --Thus, the Bowen to RJ's Jackson remark.--

RJ may be a `3' but his offensive ability and improved 3-point shot, while not as pure as Jack, does bring some similarities in their size and effectiveness.

So while I see your line of thinking, I don't necessarily agree that that person needs to be able to play a true `2.'

RJ and Manu would essentially be your 2-guards if you could add an elite wing-defender who possessed a capable 3-point shot. It'd be what Bowen did for Jackson, and Manu off the bench, back in '03.

My ideal scenario, would be a Bowen-esque player as the third wing and a proven vet like Fin to spread the floor as my fourth. Unfortunately, ideal and realistic aren't one in the same.

I just don't see the type of player out there that could offer those attributes, both offensively and defensively, and could come in at the deadline and pick up the schemes in time. The only real one that comes to mind is Bell and I'm not too sold on him; given he's a smallish defender who was never known for his athleticism and has noticeably slowed down defensively over the last couple of years.

We're really gonna have to hope that Hairston, Williams, or someone of that ilk, in combination with RJ, will be able to fill that void.

Where's a freakin' flux-capacitor when you need one..

[DPG21920]

I know. I am not sold on Bell either. I like Nocioni, but I honestly do not think he is that good of a defender.

I don't think going for a stopper is possible, at least not at a high level like Bowen. I think the Spurs have to go for an RJ type defender (that level), but a player with better offense than Bowen. Hope the offense makes up for it and the defense is enough.

I honestly can't think of anyone (within reason) that is what I would consider a "Bowen-level" stopper.

Just go through and start naming players and do not even worry about salary. See how short that list is, then try and narrow it down by salary and likelihood.

Talk about a task

[Blackjack]

Yeah, if people didn't understand Bruce's value before, they will soon enough.

I've touted two guys since they were drafted, Sefolosha and McGuire, that I really was hoping the Spurs would find a way to draft --the latter they passed for Williams-- but I don't see how the Spurs could get there hands on either.

Thabo would be more of a more physical Christie than a Bowen and McGuire has the potential of a Posey defensively, but neither possess a 3-point shot at the moment. I do like, although they do it differently, that they've both got point-forward abilities though.

Antonio Anderson's disappearance was a bit strange from SL and Bogans is still out there to be had I believe, but neither really leaves you all that excited.

One of the biggest reasons I was intrigued with Derrick Brown in the draft so much, was the simple fact you pointed out. There's just not that many quality, willing defenders out there to be had. I figured with a guy who went to Xavier and had measurements and numbers so similar to Posey, you might have something if you get him under Pop's wing from the jump.

Oh, and there was the Austin Nichols kid who looked like an option for a minute there. I'm not sure what ever happened with that, I think Tim at 48MoH was supposed to have a follow-up to the first piece he did, but maybe that's the route they're going to have to take to find what they need.

I guess it wouldn't be too surprising that the person needed to fill that role were actually playing overseas. That last guy who filled the role had a pretty good stretch over there, after all..

[DPG21920]

That Batum guy would have been nice.

[Blackjack]

No doubt.

But I think we're going to be pretty damn pleased with the consolation prize..

The kid's a stud.

[mountainballer]

I'll let mountainballer speak for his self but I'm pretty sure his main premise was upgrading the wing this year. We've both had concerns over the lack of a `stopper' outside RJ and bringing in next years roster gives a fuller picture of the financial situation and type of players that will be available under those cir stances.

well, my major point was about the overall strategy and only in the 2nd place about players.
I try to make my point again:
if you assume, that your MLE next season is more or less booked for a front court player (Splitter) and 3 players of your regular wing rotation have expiring contracts, you also know that you MIGHT find yourself in a dilemma comes offseason 2010.
a wise management will try to avoid such a dilemma in the beginning. (I think we agree that the Spurs FO is wise, well at least most of the time).
of course they can re sign their FAs. but does it make us happy, if (for example) Mason totally fails next season, but the Spurs need to re sign him, because they have no money available for a better FA?
that's why I think they will trade for a wing. it's just a question of long term strategies and to avoid a disadvantageous negotiating position for 2010. (agents know very well how to drive up the price, when a team can't go an alternative route)
so it would be just a pragmatic solution, to trade (likely Finley) for a wing under contract till 2011.
yes, a stopper would be the perfect scenario.
but IMO it also would be enough to pull the trigger, if this player is a slight upgrade over Finley and a bit younger. this means, even an average defensive player is an option, if he equals Fin's offense.
we will need to keep an eye on teams that have a glut of wing players and that will face currently unpredictable developments.
like the Wizards. it's absolutely impossible that they find minutes for Arenas-Foye-Young-Crittenton-Stevenson-Miller-Butler-McGuire, even if Butler and McGuire spend some time at PF. (I didn't even count Mike James, but I guess he will be bought out)
Heat is another team to watch. if they can get Beasley back on track, they will not find enough minutes for either Jones or Wright.
Warriors? what if Curry pans out immediately, Ellis gets back on track and Morrow goes ahead with stellar shooting? Azubuike might become available at deadline.
and an immediate success of rookies like DeRozean, Williams, Teague might also make some veteran players available.
(Teague: he might take significant minutes at SG with Crawford, so JJ plays more point forward than ever and Mo Evans suddenly is without minutes).

[kobyz]

I dont understand why so much attention is given to wing-players when its obvious we need a 7footer in the lane to block shots and help Tim get rebounds. The game, as much as it has changed over the years is still won in the paint. Therefore we need 2 big men not Tim/Undersized C. Tim doesn't like playing Center, yet the spurs have continued to get little big-men, Like there there faking Tim into thinking someone is playing next to him when in actuality he doing all the work of a Center.

we now have McDyess and Blair to help Tim with rebounds and dirty work, it's doesn't matter they are not 7footer cause they good players, we also will bring Splitter next year so our need is a wing player, for now we only have 2quality wings: RJ and Manu, we know that Manu hes injurie problem, we know that Finley does not left a lot in the tank and we know that Mason is garbage.
and also like say in this topic it's seems that most our MLE next season will go on Splitter.
so there could be situation that for 2010/2011 season we will only left with RJ as quality wing if Manu will not be the same, without cap space or MLE to bring wing.
this why we must use our expiring contracts to bring a quality wing NOW!!

[Bruno]

Projecting what Spurs should do at the trade deadline is quite premature.

You can easily imagine a scenario like Manu healthy and back at a great level, Mason being a damn solid role player and one of Hairston, Williams or McCliton showing some interesting qualities.
You can also easily imagine a scenario with Manu struggling with his health and game, Mason showing some true limits and prospect not being NBA material.
In the first scenario going after a wing makes quite no sense while it's a "must do" in the second one.

There are a training camp and 52 games to play before the trade deadline. They will surely have a big impact on what Spurs should/will do at the trade deadline. Wait and see.

[mountainballer]

of course it's premature.
well, it's 30 games less premature than projecting with what record the Spurs will finish. (something some people discussed intensively). or discussing if they should re sign Manu. or speculating if Tiago will finally come over. or take 95% of the topics these days, they come either from offseason boredom and/or from a permanent interest in this teams future.

maybe it's the language barrier that I fail to make my point, but I wonder why it is so difficult to follow this one point:
if the Spurs know that they will very likely use the 2010 MLE for Splitter, aren't they forced to trade for a wing at deadline?
sure, things can go right and everything will be fine. (Manu is healthy and will be re signed to a reasonable contract. Mason plays well in the PO and will also be re signed. Hairston turns into a legit NBA player, who takes Finley's spot in the rotation)
but if not, Spurs might find themself in a big dilemma 2010.
we will not definitely find out about Manu's health before the 2010 PO. and we won't find out about Masons ability to finally deliver in a PO game before the PO 2010. and Finley will definitely be 37 at this point.
worst case: Manu breaks down in the PO, Mason once again fails big time, Hairston isn't ready yet. Spurs want to use the MLE for Splitter and find themself in a FA market, with with the BAE as their best offer and in a trade market without useful assets, because the contracts of Bonner, Mason and Finley have already expired. (and forget about S&Ts. how many do we see every year? 2, maybe 3. 30 teams and 3 S&Ts. that's not an option to bet on). so, this would be the moment when even hardcore fans will go crazy about the lack of foresight of the PO to not turn at least one of the expirings into a wing player, to avoid this dilemma.
but of course, foresight is always also a bit premature.

[Bruno]

Well, the cap will drop next year. Letting some of their expiring contracts expire could be the only way Spurs have to keep Manu.

And there are risks in every situation:
- If you keep Mason and he sucks, you end up with no backup SG/SF and half a MLE to fill that spot (if Splitter costs an half MLE).
- If you get a James Jones or Deshawn Stevenson and he sucks or is injured, you end up with no backup SG/SF and only min contracts due to luxury tax troubles.

[mountainballer]

well any acquisition also comes with the risk that the player suck or might get injured at some point. even the Jefferson acquisition comes in with the huge risk to end up with a 15 million player, who delivers like a 5 million player.

and technically it's no problem to keep Manu, if they want to keep him. the question will be, how much lux tax are they willing to pay. and maybe 2010 Holt isn't as generous, as he was 2009. so yes, I also don't think they will turn all their expiring contracts into longer term contracts at deadline. (realistically I think they are willing to take back a contract in the 5 million range at most, so still 5 million will come off the books)

[Blackjack]

well, my major point was about the overall strategy and only in the 2nd place about players.

I got where you were coming from, even if I didn't articulate it as well as I could of.

My point was just to say, that this year had just as much, if not more, to do with your premise as what the roster will look like next year; the need and the choices made for this year obviously effect more than the bottom line and the ramifications for personnel moving forward need a full picture, strategically and financially.

`Why the Spurs won't trade now, but will trade for a wing at deadline 2010'

Makes sense to me. --And, yeah, Bruno's right that it's premature to come to any conclusions. But it's also what we do here at ST.--

we will need to keep an eye on teams that have a glut of wing players and that will face currently unpredictable developments.
like the Wizards. it's absolutely impossible that they find minutes for Arenas-Foye-Young-Crittenton-Stevenson-Miller-Butler-McGuire, even if Butler and McGuire spend some time at PF. (I didn't even count Mike James, but I guess he will be bought out)
Heat is another team to watch. if they can get Beasley back on track, they will not find enough minutes for either Jones or Wright.
Warriors? what if Curry pans out immediately, Ellis gets back on track and Morrow goes ahead with stellar shooting? Azubuike might become available at deadline.
and an immediate success of rookies like DeRozean, Williams, Teague might also make some veteran players available.
(Teague: he might take significant minutes at SG with Crawford, so JJ plays more point forward than ever and Mo Evans suddenly is without minutes).

Wright I forgot about but he's definitely a prospect with the size and potential to be that good defender with a spot-up 3. He came into this league with a reputation of a good shot, so there's some hope he could thrive in the Spurs' system.

Azubuike I'm starting to like a little more. Not for the role that I'd most desire, but as a good upgrade. He's not someone I think too highly of defensively but he's at least got the strength and athleticism to be adequate and his 3-point shot has come a long ways. His rebounding has always been a plus and his ability to run the floor would definitely be another good asset for Tony on the wing, as well.

[DPG21920]

BJ, you know who I really liked was Kleiza. Too bad he is not here. We just have to see how things shape up.

Oct 6th baby!

[Blackjack]

Yeah, I liked Kleiza as well.

He's not exactly the type of defender I'd prefer, but he is a deceptively good one. Good strength, size, sneaky athleticism, and a respected 3-point shot that he can either utilize or use to set up a good dribble-drive to the cup.

Just a solid player, in stature and ability.

I guess we shouldn't really worry about finding another wing, though..

I think we've all forgotten that `Bauer's' got the Spurs covered.

[kudoshinichi]

so there could be situation that for 2010/2011 season we will only left with RJ as quality wing if Manu will not be the same, without cap space or MLE to bring wing.
this why we must use our expiring contracts to bring a quality wing NOW!!

That's right. Mason and Bonner are really poor in D and both of them are in expiring contracts. We can expect a solid wing player by some trade related to them.

[portnoy1]

Let's be real. Who we need is Marcus Camby. He negates any mistakes made by ty perimeter defenders like Mason.

A big man is exactly what we need. I understand some of the post a little better now as regards Tim duncan being more of a Center now-a-days. But now we need a mobile 6-11 dude who can move his feet and block shots. Tim is not that guy anymore. He is less mobile and bigger size-wise since first coming into the league. Basically he is old, not in a bad way. Just older, and not physically capable as he was 10 even 5 yrs ago. We need a young athletic big who can move his feet and can cover Dirks/Odoms/Lewis' but still be able to hold the traditional PF as well. I like Camby here.

[mountainballer]

the Pat Riley interview yesterday did have an IMO interesting side note. of course he talked about Beasley and Wade etc., but he also raved about how great James Jones looks in practice. he didn't talk about any other how they look in practise. I tought wtf., who cares about JJ at this point.
so I looked at their cap situation and I thought, ok Riley does have a very good reason to advertise JJames.
the Heat obviously want to sign a premium FA (even if Riley claims they might also sign three minor players with their cap space) to convince Wade to stay.
but considering the downgoing cap, they would need to renounce the rights for Haslem, to be able to sign a maximim contract, also considering the cap hold for the Wade rights. that's a dilemma, I'm pretty sure they want to re sign Haslem and he wants to stay. but if they can get rid of Jones for expirings, they likely can re sign Haslem to a marketr value contract. (maybe starting at 6 million)
if they need to choose between Jones and Haslam, of course Haslme is the more important guy for the team. (and he has been playing alongside Wade for 6 years and they are good friends).
Jones was injured a lot last season and when he played, he didn't play well and didn't find his niche with the team. so his trade value is pretty low, considering he has 4 more years on his contract. (not fully guaranteed though). IMO Riley is showcasing Jones. (this doesn't mean he might not in fact look good in practise.)
what about this: Finley+Bonner+M.Williams for Jones+Anthony. this would reduce the Spurs payroll for about 1.4 million and so save 2.8 million overall. and Spurs get a SF with very good size, who can defend and hit the 3.
(and they were interested in Jones in 2005, but then they signed Finley)

[DPG21920]

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pa...aries/heat.jsp

James Jones: Signed for 5 years and $23.2 million in July 2008. Contract boosted by $10,000 a year due to a "summer development" bonus, whatever that is. Contract has a 15% trade kicker. Final three years are only partially guaranteed ($1,856,000, $1,984,000, and $2,112,000 respectively) but become fully guaranteed if Jones is not waived on or before 6/30/2010.

[DPG21920]

To be honest, I would not want the Spurs to get JJ. He is not good enough to take on his contract and to give up pure expiring contracts for. Also, he is not good enough to warrant giving up Williams for unless he is a complete bust.

[mountainballer]

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pa...aries/heat.jsp

James Jones: Signed for 5 years and $23.2 million in July 2008. Contract boosted by $10,000 a year due to a "summer development" bonus, whatever that is. Contract has a 15% trade kicker. Final three years are only partially guaranteed ($1,856,000, $1,984,000, and $2,112,000 respectively) but become fully guaranteed if Jones is not waived on or before 6/30/2010.

every story has two sides. of course his contract would be more attractive if it was say 2 more years for 3 million per. he is overpayed, if he plays like last regular season and he is worth every penny if he plays like 2007-08 for the Blazers or in the last POs.

9.6 PPG, FG 53%, 3s 50% (11-22)

he was one of the reasons, why the Heat went 7 games against the Hawks. he also did well when he defended either Josh Smith or Joe Johnson.
we could ask:
would we have rather payed JJames 4 million for his 9.6 PPG- 50% 3s - good defense contribution, or Roger Mason 3.5 million for 6.6 PPG - 36%3s - bad defense ???

other numbers that intrigue me:

Height w/o Shoes: 6' 7.25"
Height w/shoes: 6' 8.75"
Weight: 218
Wingspan: 7' 2.5"
Standing Reach: 8' 11.5"

Career 3pt shooting: 391-994 (0,393%)

once more: Jones isn't a great talent, he has had injury problems the last years, his contract isn't a disaster, but also not a bargain.
on the other hand: he is as much Spurs material as any player. he is a good guy, he is smart, knows his role and limitations, he is tough and he is versatile. for the role the Spurs need to fill alongside Manu and RJ, he is almost perfect. and he can defend combo forwards pretty well, one more point that counts.