great analysisthe main reason why I became so addicted to this site is timvp's takes
To appear on the monday edition...
What can the Spurs expect from Splitter?
With our sources reporting that Splitter has cut off short his honeymoon and has just arrived in San Antonio, we asked our internal statistical analysts to predict what should the Spurs expect from a player like Splitter, and this is what they came up with:
Edit: Oops, sorry, I forgot we're not supposed to post E-N stuff...
Excelent post. The only thing I would disagree is that he's known to be a shot-blocker. He's not. He doesnt gamble for blocks, period. However, that doesnt mean he's not an agressive defender. Like I said before, Tiago settles for altering shots.
Besides, don't fool yourselves. Tiago is not a boxscore maniac. Most of his impact doesnt show on stats.
This prediction is pretty acurated for his rookie year.
He averaged right at 2 his first season with San Antonio, but seemed to drop off in each of the following two seasons (1.7 and 1.1).
25 mins / gm is probably more than he's likely to get.
There's basically 96 minutes to divide amongst Duncan, Dice, Bonner, Blair and Splitter.
Duncan is going to get 30, Dice 20, Bonner & Blair 15 apiece. That essentially leaves Splitter with 16 minutes and that's IF Popped doesn't play any small ball which is unlikely.
Unless the spurs make some kind of trade involving either Dice, Bonner, or Blair...Splitter will be lucky to garner even 15 minutes per game.
Take it up with the coach. If he puts up those kinds of numbers in the projected minutes then he's in pretty rarified air for a Spurs big.
I think it would be asinine to have TD play more than 20-23 mpg over the regular season, seeing how he wore out during the past two seasons. I mean, there might be some special games or cir stances that force your hand, but with the West dropping a bit in quality, there's no reason you couldn't pull it off.
I also expect Dice to play no more than 15 and to sit out some back to back games.
Interesting...dope post
are you ting meI think it would be asinine to have TD play more than 20-23 mpg over the regular season
that post may have been a new low in spursforum foolishness
that is just dumb man
9/6 sounds about right, 1st year so cant expect to much 25MIN PER wouldnt be a bad start either
Nice analysis. 10 and 6 would work for me.
This is in 25 minutes. As a rookie. On the Spurs. And to determine what "good" is, you HAVE to take into account minutes played.
What I took away from the analysis is that Splitter projects to be right around where Scola was his rookie year, and would be the most productive big we've had next to Duncan since Malik in 2003 or Robinson in 1999. Want to know if 15.5 points, 9.6 rebs, 2.2 assists, 1 stl and 1 blk per 40 minutes is good? Here are some (rough) numbers for comparison of players with similar stats over 40 minutes.
Name: Points/Rebs/Assts/Block (per 40)
Tiago Splitter: 15.5/9.6/2.2/1.0
Brad Miller: 13.6/7.7/3.1/0.6
David Anderson: 16/9.1/2.1/0.6
Nene Hilario: 16.3/9.2/2.7/1.2
Andray Blatche: 16/9.2/2.1/1.25
Paul Milsap: 16.7/9.2/2/1.7
Zydrunas Ilgauskus: 14.9/10.2/1.5
JJ Hickson: 14.9/9.2/0.7/0.9
Spencer Hawes: 16.1/8.9/3.1/1.7
Frankly, those are all second-tier NBA centers and forwards. And that's absolutely fine with me for a rookie coming into our system, especially one that actually plays in the POST (unlike Bonner, who also has similar stats but plays like a shooting guard) and has some mobility. In fact, I'd even go so far as to say it qualifies as "good."
What part exactly you disagree with and why?
.. great work ..
yes players play x min per game, every game and total stats, then divide that by games played. i understand that
6 rebounds 1 asst and half a block is not good. i dont know what to tell you i know these are just projections bu
Do you also plan on making the playoffs?
20 minutes per game?
hes been playing in the mid 30s for 5 years and youre going to cut that by 15 min per game?
what is the point of having him on the roster and playing the regular season? i doubt tim would stand for that thats an insult of the highest caliber
i personally think pop didnt play him enough last season, but that is a tough argument because he is getting old and was gassed in the playoffs
but it couldnt have ended any worse, we got our asses swept by PHOENIX
If TD is not gonna get help from the supporting cast and have to carry the load again in the 1st half like the past two seasons only to be burned at the end, what's the point of making the playoffs?
Also, like I said, the west is not looking as compe ive as the last few seasons this time around.
He averaged 31 mpg last season and he indeed ended up gassed. The previous season he ended up gassed too.
I said to reduce his minutes to 20-23 with some games maybe more depending on the cir stance. That's a 5-10 minute reduction to see if we can keep his legs fresh. People tend to forget that Tim has a chronic condition on one of his knees. More than ever it's important not to lose focus on the goal and that the surrounding cast step up their games because TD is going to need all the help he can get to capture #5.
the 31 min per game was to keep his legs fresh, and it didnt work, we lost a load of games, got a bad seed, he wasnt in condition to play more mins in the playoffs and i think team chemistry suffered. he was still gassed and we got SWEPT by PHOENIX. thats a nightmare. thats beyond pain and agony i cant tell you what that series did to me
i guess if you had 20 bones left at the casino you would go play quarter slots for 2 hours?
go for the gusto man, would you rather have tim retire after the 11 championship or have him play 13 min a game for 10 more years?
Losing a load of games and having a bad seed was as much to do with inept coaching and failure to develop young players as anything else. Honestly, bringing Duncan off the bench? WTF? With the expected development of Blair if Splitter can put up numbers like that he basically forces Pop to give him more minutes. There's really not any way that can be a bad situation for the Spurs.
Rasho got 28.7 minutes/game his first year with the Spurs.
No way Splitter gets less than that -- likely more.
No big not named Duncan should get anywhere close to Splitter's playing time.
I personally think this is the last lap we have with this specific core. I don't know what's gonna happen with Tony after this season, and wether Tim will be able to sporadically dominate. What I do know is that if Tim is just as gassed as the last two seasons when the playoffs roll around, our chances for #5 will be slim to none. I certainly hope that guys like Tiago can actually bring help to Tim in the rebounding and paint defense department so he can be more rested by the time the playoffs come around.
Thanks again timvp
10/6? thats a bit low man
if his gettin starters minutes? i expect around yao/amare rookie year type of stats...
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