Tony Parker and his Ceiling

[smeagol]

Don't piss of Brodels or he will kick your ass!

[Man In Black]

I don't have a problem with Kevin Johnson-Lite do any of you?

While it's true he capitalizes on his ability to run and needs a jumpshot, it's not like he can't help this team to additional championship(s).

Why worry about his ceiling anyways? It's a team concept here and as it has been talked about so many times...IT'S A DEFINED ROLE FOR EVERY PLAYER. AS long as he fills it to the letter per Pop, then he should be A-OK. I mean the team was winning with Rasho following his role, with Bruce following his role. If anything say Parker averages 17 & 7 that makes him no worse than other good scoring PG's in the L, in short it makes him seem like KJ-Lite.

[mavsfan1000]

I don't see Parker improving much. He is undersized at his size and is in very good shape. If he lets down on his conditioning it will be hard for him to get back to where he is at now. When he starts to slow down it will be about 30 since he relies so much on his quickness. Players who rely mostly on their speed seem to develop quicker at a younger but doesn't mean they are going to continue to get better. They might understand the game more but that's it.

[Kori Ellis]

I don't see how Tony won't improve. This is probably the most off-based post that I've ever seen from Brodels.

His decision making will improve as he continues to mature. His defense improves steadily. His jumpshooting and free throw shooting will definitely improve if he works on them. And as he "slows down" with age, many other facets of his game will improve because he won't be able to rely on his speed as much and will need to be more crafty to score.

Bad Thread.

[picnroll]

Why worry about his ceiling anyways?

Because most realize that if Parker can step it up, for most that's become a reliable shooter, that a Spurs dynasty is pretty much in the bag.

Remember going into the first round last year Memphis had owned SA and many were nervous about that series. Well Parker was hitting his outside shot which set up the rest of his game and he single handedly destroyed the Grizz. That carried over to the first two games of the LA series. Then TP shut down and the rest is history. If Parker could shoot like Nash or Billups then river parades every year for the next four years.

[Timoha]

Tony's main problem (as I see it right now) is consistancy. He is capable of having huge games, and sometimes does. But sometimes he just doesn't play very well. I think that consistency comes with eperience. So I think that Tony will definatly improve.

[boutons]

for the 04 Grizz series, I distinctly remember Hubie complimenting Tony's unstoppable layups "and he does it right in right in face of your big men", not his outside shot.

[Brodels]

I don't see how Tony won't improve. This is probably the most off-based post that I've ever seen from Brodels.

You're officially a homer.

His decision making will improve as he continues to mature.

What have you seen in the past year or two to convince you that his decision making is going to improve very much? I think it will improve some, but not by leaps and bounds. After 375 NBA games, I think you have a pretty good idea about what a player is going to do as far as playmaking goes.

His defense improves steadily.

Again, I can see small improvements here. But his greatest weakness defensively is not really a weakness, it's an attribute: his size. He does pretty good staying with people on the perimeter. He still requires help if bigger point guards post him up, and he's not going to grow three inches or put on twenty pounds.

His jumpshooting and free throw shooting will definitely improve if he works on them.

If he works on them, that could happen. But he said that he worked hard on his jump shot last summer, and we haven't really seen any evidence that it really made a difference.

What do you expect from him? Do you want him to work hard on his jumpshot all summer? He supposedly already did that last summer.

And as he "slows down" with age, many other facets of his game will improve because he won't be able to rely on his speed as much and will need to be more crafty to score.

That's probably the case. But he's simply not going to be as good if he loses a significant amount of speed. We've seen many other guards decline because they lost some speed. He'll compensate because he'll have lots of experience, but will it be enough to offset his loss of speed?

Bad Thread.

Maybe. But I don't think anyone has made a good argument to prove me wrong.

I hate that if I start a thread like this everyone thinks I'm a Parker hater. I fully believed until about thirty days ago that Parker would turn out to be better than Manu. I think Tony's awesome and I love to watch him play. I just think he's not going to become significantly better.

And in the end, the Spurs don't need him to. I'll take Kevin Johnson lite any day.

[timvp]

The key to Tony's improvement beyond this point is working on his jumper. While his FG% from outside the lane took a hit this year, the reason for that is he totally reworked the style of his jumper. If you look at tape from now and compare it to his rookie season, it's totally different. Even compare it to the Lakers series last year and it's different. He actually leaves the ground on his jumpers and doesn't really shoot set-shots anymore.

It's going to take a while for TP to adjust to this new shooting stroke. Although it's still pretty ugly, it looks a lot prettier nowadays. All he has to do is hit those wide open 18-footers coming around pick and rolls and suddenly he becomes unguardable. That's the difference between him being a 16 points per game scorer and averaging closer to 22. If he hits that jumper consistently, that'll force people to guard him ... which will then open up driving lanes where he is deadly in the paint. Right now no one really guards him on the perimeter. Imagine if he makes people pay for that one day.

There is a chance that he never becomes a better shooter, but I think he will. He's about the age of your standard rookie and there have been a lot of people who've come into the league and created jumpshots for themselves.

I expect Parker will average closer to 20 next regular season, while Manu is averaging around the same he averaged this season. Then in the playoffs, Manu can turn it up and become the playoff superstar that he is. But as far as the regular season goes, I think Parker has been and will continue to be more important to this team racking up wins.






P.S.

Another area to look at is how much stronger Parker has gotten. This is the first season that you can see some muscle on him. The stronger he gets, the better off he'll be finishing and on the defensive end.

[Kori Ellis]

You're officially a homer.

Or you are hater?

I just don't see many good NBA players stop their development at 23.

What have you seen in the past year or two to convince you that his decision making is going to improve very much?

The fact that for a long while the Spurs tried to turn him into a more typical point guard. Only this season has everyone decided that being a scoring point is what he's going to be. Now that his role is more definied I think he will become more comfortable in his decisions.

Again, I can see small improvements here.

His defense has improved dramatically since the beginning of the 2003-04 season until now. Go watch some old tape. So I don't see how he can't continue to improve. He has begun to study his opponents and take on the challenge of becoming a good defender.

If he works on them, that could happen. But he said that he worked hard on his jump shot last summer, and we haven't really seen any evidence that it really made a difference.

We heard before the summer that he was going to work on his J last summer. I don't think that actually happened. I am hoping that this summer it will.

[Sii]

The notion that Parker is reached his peak at 23 ing years old is nothing short of insanity. Who knows how much better he gets but he WILL improve. You dont reach your peak at 23 or in year 4 of being in the league. Parker being an Allstar is a next step and I think that happens soon

[Nikos]

KJ actually didn't improve after 23. His best seasons were actually when he was 22-24. After that he was a similiar player.

One thing KJ had that Parker doesn't appear to is ABILITY to get to the line and convert. That is huge. KJ could leap higher when he got to the lane and finish even with contact and a long defender all over him. But KJ also had a money mid-range jumper that may have helped him get to the rack even more. Opponents had to respect it because KJ could get it off quickly with his great quickness and leaping skills.

Parker could survive without the 3pt shot, but with Duncan being around it makes it easier for him to get clean looks and become a more efficient offensive player by just making open shots. Couple that with making more FTs, getting to the line a little more -- and hitting the mid-range jumper, he could be similiar to KJ in how he scores his points.

All the little ways to improve your scoring and offensive efficiency can add up. Slightly better mid-range shooting, more FTA's and makes, and slightly better 3pt shooting can add up to a huge 3-4ppg offensive improvement. It's possible he can improve a bit in all categories.

[mavsfan1000]

It all depends on how dedicated Parker is to becoming a better player. He should watch alot of tape of how Nash gets everyone involved. Get in even better shape and feel comfortable with the ball in his hands without worrying about turnovers. Some of this might be harder because people don't respect his perimeter shooting.

[Dr.Phil]

Tony has not reached his full potential and I'd dare say he won't hit his peak for a few years yet. If he listens to his coaches and does not let what he reads or hears from the media get to him his future is mind boggling.

[exstatic]

If he can develop a better mid-range or long range shot he'll be easily all-star level. Can he develop a decent shot? Beginning to have my doubts.

He needs a shooting coach. If Malik can hire one, become an 80% FT shooter, and develop a servicable jumper, then I hardly think Tony's time is up. He doesn't need to become Ray Allen, just keep the defense honest and not allow them to collapse into the lane.

[Lady M]

I think Tony will continue to improve because Paris will organize the 2012 olympics games and he want win the gold medal in Paris

(ok nothing is sure but I dream )

[JERRYBUSS]

Tony parker has hit a ceiling definitely. How much better can he get? He clearly doesn't have the touch from the outside to become a player the cailber of Steve Nash. He is a good player, but one who lacks the natural shooting touch. And I'm sorry folks, if you don't shoot well you never will. If Parker could shoot from outside he'd be one of the best pg's in the league, because teams wouldn't be giving him so much space on the perimeter. THen he could drive and create for his teammates like Steve Nash does. Parker plays in an efficient offensive system and usually only shoots when wide open coming off beautifully designed Popovich pick and roll plays. But put him out there on a team without duncan and ginobili and he's just an above average player, not a star who can carry a team with his versatility and overall range of play.

[slayermin]

There was that great play when TP ran across the baseline but nothing was there. He then turned back into the lane, without picking up his dribble and scored. I think it was in the 4th Qtr.

Baseline Bum told me, that reminded him of Steve Nash. At that point, I felt like TP took a huge step forward. He is learning from the guys he's playing against and eventually, will be the best point in the game. I can't be critical of him any longer.

[JERRYBUSS]

The point is Parker is effective in the Spurs offensive system. But put him out there in a free offense not based on pick and roll and he's nothing. Suppose he was traded to a team like Atlanta. Do you think he could do anything on his own without Tim Duncan under the hoop?

[SPARKY]

At age 23 Steve Nash was just learning how to take a dump and wipe his ass, let alone start at point in the NBA. Also, the last time I checked Parker is fairly consistent at nailing the 18 to 20 foot jumper.

Those of you who are already proclaiming the plateau of his career need a little help, especially the last poster.

[NASHville]

The sky is the limit for this young player who has NOT reached his ceiling, not even close. As he learns the game, and he does have lots to learn, his decision making will become second nature and his assist to turnover ratio will become better.
How anyone can think Tony has reached his ceiling is ridiculous.

[R2-D2]

He peaked at age 17! Now that he has full-blown AIDS, it is all downhill!

God hates s!

[Lady M]

watch Nash, Kidd, Billups or Bibby stats after 4 years in NBA

Tony was younger (2 or 3 years) of all this great players after 4 years and apart from Kidd assists TP stats are better

how can you say TP can't improve whereas the players improved so much.
please use your brain before write stupide things

[SPARKY]

The point is Parker is effective in the Spurs offensive system. But put him out there in a free offense not based on pick and roll and he's nothing. Suppose he was traded to a team like Atlanta. Do you think he could do anything on his own without Tim Duncan under the hoop?

Put Parker with a team that runs an open court offense ala the Suns and he's putting up 20+ ppg easily. Parker's greatest strength is his footspeed. But of course you knew that, I suppose.

[boutons]

"and he's nothing."

plonk