Tony Parker and his Ceiling

[Brodels]

Maybe this is a topic better left for the offseason, but it's on my mind today.

We've seen Parker grow by leaps and bounds over the years. He's become a better leader, a solid floor general, and he can finish at the rim. He developed that floater and it's been deadly.

But my question is this:

Is Tony Parker currently about as good as he's going to get?

Sometimes I think so. And that's not a bad thing. He's a very good point guard for this team, and if he doesn't improve anymore, the Spurs are still in very good shape.

Here's my reasoning:

- Parker's game is built around his speed. He is successful because he can get into the lane with ease and because he knows what to do once he gets there. He's not going to get any faster than he is now. He can only get slower. That's not to say that he will, but the biggest factor in his success is not going to improve.

- We heard about Parker taking tons of jump shots in the offseason, but let's be frank: Tony isn't much better from the perimeter than he was when he came into the league. His three point shooting has regressed. He still doesn't hit jumpers with any type of consistency. He shoots a high percentage from the floor for a guard, but it's mostly because he takes so many shots close to the basket.

- He's become a better playmaker, but it's clear that he's never going to be among the game's great playmakers. He knows where he teammates are and he can get them the ball, but he still looks to score first. That's not a bad thing, but it's also not an area where we can expect a ton of improvement.

If his primary attribute (his speed) isn't going to improve, his playmaking is never going to be a primary strength, and his jumper is what it is, are we currently seeing the Tony Parker of the next six years?

The more I watch him, the more I think it's true. Many thought he would take that huge next step and be among the top two or three point guards in the league. I think he might stay in that next group, the just-under-superstar-and-franchise-guy point guard, the three through six kind of guys.

That's not a bad thing. The Spurs will do fine if Tony can continue to improve with the little things. He's a good point guard for this team. But is there a next big step for Tony? He's been in the league for a few years now. Is he beginning to level off?

[boutons]

"Is Tony Parker currently about as good as he's going to get?"

Physically, I think he is, because he just isn't a natural, co-ordinated athlete, demonstrated in his lack of fluidity, his poor FT and jump shooting (lack of coordination), his often clumsy layups, that look like a girl laying up off her wrong foot, that often having him stopping flat-footed under the basket to throw up a put-back type shot, rather than fluidly layiing up at the peak of his jump and following through his layup out of bounds the way, eg, Brent does.

Unless he totally breaks down his shot mechanics and starts over to obtain a shooting motion and hang-time like Steve Nash, Mike Bibby, Kobe, I think he will never be consistent outside shooter.

However, mentally, emotionally I think he can still go a long way in the non-physical aspects of his game, in his floor vision, general basketball smarts, his toughness, his feel for the flow of the game, his decisions, his ball distribution, his playmaking, ie, general game management. I think there will come a point where he will have the confidence of leader to chew out his teammates for screwing up the way Robert did to Devin in Game1.

[ducks]

he has chewed out bowen before for not getting on his man

[Brodels]

he has chewed out bowen before for not getting on his man

Alright Ducks, you're one of my favorite posters and one funny mofo, but what the does Parker yelling at Bowen have to do with this thread?

Maybe I'm just not good at speaking ducks.

[ducks]

I think there will come a point where he will have the confidence of leader to chew out his teammates for screwing up the way Robert did to Devin in Game1. boutons

so I pointed out he does it already

[RobinsontoDuncan]

so I pointed out he does it already

did you just get....... DUCK3D? Lmao

[orhe]

nice ducks...
i don't know i guess TP has a lot of room for improvement...
His Jump shot needs a lot of work and i think that would improve as he gets older, but his penetration is what we need from him.

w/ his speed Parker has a pretty easy time to penetrate... against the first line of defense. but what happens when team focuses their 2nd and third defenders on you? From what i've seen TP has dramatically improved on this aspect of his game. Last year when the lakers clogged the lane he still forced stuff and that really hurt his confidence and our team. But this year he's finding ways to contribute (well give the ball to TD) when someone decides to clog the lane.

IMHO as Parker matures mentally he'll know when and how to attack the lane when opponents guard it so tightly... and that's why i think he's far from being a finished product. he has the potential to be the best scoring PG in the NBA.

[Brodels]

did you just get....... DUCK3D? Lmao

I guess so. I'm not really sure what just happened.

[WalterBenitez]

"Is Tony Parker currently about as good as he's going to get?"

For me it is amazing how this kid play, phisically as it's been mentioned probably he'll have small room to improve, but could you imagine how good Tony will be in his prime, for instance when he were 27-29 years old, he'll be smarter, if he still have TD, Manu next to him this team has right to dream.

Tony for sure will improve.

[manubili]

I agree.
IMO Tony has a lot of room to improve in his iden y as a player, mentally speaking. You see him much too often doubting about his next move. He has to get more regular.

I think he will improve very soon. Before, he will have to accept that he has Manu at his side. Both of them will have to match up even better than they do now.

Waht do you think about Manu and Tony relation in the court?

Enjoy

[WalterBenitez]

Waht do you think about Manu and Tony relation in the court?

Hummmm,

Asking for opinion, right?

I'd like imagine that everything is all right since they are pro players, this is not laker town, an it seems like everything is running well.

I am not an insider, probably someone close to Spurs could explain the relationship among them better than me; but ...

I think the days where Manu used to ask (Tony) the ball are part of the past, I think TP, Manu are smart enough to realize when each of them is in a good night, probably Manu realize that very quickly and TP insists is his game, but ...

You know, Spurs are playing for NBA le, so ... the real leadership (I mean Tim) is working in this team.

[NCaliSpurs]

Brodels:

As Pop would say, that is all of a bunch of Baloney.

Speed: Implying that he needs to get faster to get better? Maybe he can still learn to use his speed more effectively. How can you possibly prove or imply that he can't?

Jumpshots: I would argue that his jumpshots have regressed because he doesn't force the issue enough to be consistent. Thus, his FG% is WAY UP because he is always attacking (read layups) and kicking out (read a lot more assists).

Playmaking: "It's clear that he is never going to be a better playmaker." Ok, Nostradumas. The guy is 23, not 32. Being a better playmaker comes with experience. Point guards don't peak at year 4.

If his primary attribute (his speed) isn't going to improve, his playmaking is never going to be a primary strength, and his jumper is what it is, are we currently seeing the Tony Parker of the next six years?

He doesn't need to get faster, just learn to use it better.

His playmaking may or may not improve. You just can't tell. No one can. He has a very high basketball IQ, and my hunch is that you are wrong on this one. But like I said... Who knows?

Jason Kidd never had a jumper. But he also couldn't finish like Tony. It is clear to me that Tony went away from the jumper this season because if his early struggles in the season. Despite his very poor jumpshooting percentage (he might be the worst on the team by a chunk), he has managed to hit some big ones in some big games, including game 1 of the finals. This is a wait and see thing.

[Nikos]

If Parker can improve his outside shot and hit FTs at a higher clip he would be twice the player. Hitting 3's and FT's and getting to the line goes along way to help improve the offensive efficiency for your team.

TP has room to grow IMO. I am just not sure if he will be a Top 5 PG. But all he really needs to do is improve the little areas, and scoring efficiency and he will be good enough to help this team compete for les for the next few seasons.

I am not positive he will grow a lot either. But I think he will improve a decent amount by 2005-06 or 06-07. Whether it is enough to warrant his perceived talent and ability to be elite in this league coming in as a rookie starter, who knows?

Can anyone see him being a less gunning version of Marbury?

[NCaliSpurs]

The Marbury comparison stings.

Parker has been great at picking his moments and knowing when to defer to Manu and Timmy.

Can you see Starbury doing the same?

[Nikos]

Thats why I said less gunning version. Talented scorer who can pass, but mostly needs to score to be most effective. Not meant to diss TP at all.

[T Park]

the guy is 23 and hes hit a ceiling??

You people are ing idiots.

[mavsfan1000]

Steve Francis hit his peak at like 22. He hasn't improved at all since then.

[TOP-CHERRY]

he has chewed out bowen before for not getting on his man

MAN! Did y'all hear him yell at Bowen in Game 1?! It was so loud, he sounded so frustrated like he was about to hit him.

I was just laughing my butt off cause he's so little with such an angry voice.

[TOP-CHERRY]

Steve Francis hit his peak at like 22. He hasn't improved at all since then.

I guess it just depends on the player and how much he wants to improve his game. It also depends on the team and organization he's in. If he knows it's worth improving, he will. If he thinks his improving won't do much for the team, he won't. In Francis' case, he didn't.

Tony on the other had, knows that if Udrih or whoever comes along has more heart and guts to perform at a higher level than the current one, he can definitely be replaced. Heck, he's already seen it happen with Rasho being replaced by Nazr in the starting lineup.

[mavsfan1000]

I think size might have to do with how much you can improve. 6'1 is small so it will be harder for him to improve than for someone 6'6. He uses his speed to help him out but how many players that size become great players. Iverson is the only one I can think of.

[MaNuMaNiAc]

MAN! Did y'all hear him yell at Bowen in Game 1?! It was so loud, he sounded so frustrated like he was about to hit him.

I was just laughing my butt off cause he's so little with such an angry voice.

So little??? The guy is 6'2", what are you talking about little??? I think you're trusting the TV too much, ofcourse he's gonna look little in comparison to those 6'10 guys, but Tony is anything but little man!

[picnroll]

If he can develop a better mid-range or long range shot he'll be easily all-star level. Can he develop a decent shot? Beginning to have my doubts.

[MaNuMaNiAc]

I think that about the only thing that TP is going to improve on is his assist to turnover ratio, which would be a huge step in the right direction 'cause his speed isn't going to last that long, and I don't think his jumper is going anywhere. I do think he has the potential to become a great PG but I think his scoring ability is at a peak. He'll benefit this team more with court vision and just plain running the offense without actually scoring but rather assisting.

[TOP-CHERRY]

So little??? The guy is 6'2", what are you talking about little??? I think you're trusting the TV too much, ofcourse he's gonna look little in comparison to those 6'10 guys, but Tony is anything but little man!

Dude, I meant in comparison to the other guys, he's little.
I'm not stupid, I know he's tall compared to normal people. I met him once, and I know how tall he is, alright?

I'm just saying he sounds funny yelling in front of big men who are much, much taller than he is.

[Brodels]

Speed: Implying that he needs to get faster to get better? Maybe he can still learn to use his speed more effectively. How can you possibly prove or imply that he can't?

I can't prove that he can't, just like you can't prove that he can. He uses his speed to get into the lane. He uses it to push the ball. I guess I'm not exactly clear what he's going to do to use his speed more effectively. Explain some facets of his game that can improve if Tony uses his speed more effectively.

How can more effective use of his speed allow him to get in the lane more? And I don't think he's going to be able to more effectively use his speed to improve leaps and bounds defensively. He struggles with bigger point guards because of their size. That's his biggest defensive weakness.

I personally think he's using it pretty effectively right now.

Jumpshots: I would argue that his jumpshots have regressed because he doesn't force the issue enough to be consistent. Thus, his FG% is WAY UP because he is always attacking (read layups) and kicking out (read a lot more assists).

Last season he took more three pointers than he did in his rookie season. He shot better from downtown in his rookie year. Shouldn't he have been better from downtown last season because he had more attempts? If I read your argument correctly, that should have been the case.

I don't know if we could ever access such a statistic, but I thought Tony took a good number of midrange jumpers this season. He shot several per game. If he took hundreds per day last summer and several each day this season, shouldn't that be enough to be consistent? He certainly took more jump shots this season than he did in his rookie season, yet he's not noticeably better from the perimeter than he was then.

And since he most certainly took more shots from the perimeter this season than he did in his rookie season, shouldn't his three point percentage be better now?

I just think a comparison of his play today vs. his play in past seasons kills that argument.

Playmaking: "It's clear that he is never going to be a better playmaker." Ok, Nostradumas.

You must be Nostradamus, seeing that you're making up quotes. If you would have the decency, it would be great if you would actually respond to what I said instead of making things up that I didn't say.

I feel that he'll improve as a playmaker. I wish you would actually respond to what I said.

The guy is 23, not 32. Being a better playmaker comes with experience. Point guards don't peak at year 4.

I agree that he'll improve some as a playmaker. His age doesn't much matter. What's more important is that he's been in the league for four years and that he's played in many playoff series. He's improved some. But he hasn't improved a tremendous amount. And given that, what makes you think that his playmaking is suddenly going to improve as a pace faster than he's been improving at in the past?

Four years in the league and four deep playoff runs (which amounts to about 3/4 of another season) is quite a lot of time. Almost five seasons? Many, if not post, point guards have done their biggest improving as far as playmaking goes during that time.

Name me five current point guards who did their biggest growing as playmakers after they've played in the league for almost five years.

His playmaking may or may not improve. You just can't tell. No one can. He has a very high basketball IQ, and my hunch is that you are wrong on this one. But like I said... Who knows?

It will improve some. And I agree that his basketball IQ is high. He knows what to do out there. But he's never going to be one of the game's great playmakers. The best playmaking point guards almost have an innate ability. You can tell when they are young that they will be great playmakers. Look at Magic, Kidd, Isiah...those guys were great playmakers and you knew they were going to be almost right away.

I feel pretty safe in stating that none of the great playmakers in the history of the game became great in that area only after playing four or five years in the league.

Now, I know you're probably not arguing that Tony will be a great playmaker. But how much more can he improve? If he's not going to get to that great playmaker level, I'm not convinced that there will be a ton of improvement in that area.

375 NBA games is a lot.

Jason Kidd never had a jumper. But he also couldn't finish like Tony. It is clear to me that Tony went away from the jumper this season because if his early struggles in the season. Despite his very poor jumpshooting percentage (he might be the worst on the team by a chunk), he has managed to hit some big ones in some big games, including game 1 of the finals. This is a wait and see thing.

Kidd can finish pretty well at the rim. He's a little bit bigger and is more likely to finish when he gets hit. He also doesn't get stripped as much under the basket. But he never was (and isn't currently) a great perimeter shooter. He sees the floor better than Tony and defends (or at least he used to) better then Tony. That's why he's better.

In my mind, improving his jump shot is the one thing that could allow him to become great and take his game to the next level. If he can hit it regularly, he'll be a real handful. But his jumpshot hasn't improved very much since he's been in the league, and at this point, it's hard for me to believe that it's going to improve a ton. But I hope it does.