Hollinger: Sixers '12 champs more likely than Spurs '12 champs

[therealtruth]

The Sixers are trying to use the Pistons 2004 model, a team with no stars. Those Pistons had four allstars though.

[Budkin]

Is Hollinger ever right?

[ffadicted]

and basketball games are won on paper

[Bartleby]

That's why you don't forfeit.

You don't forfeit so you can get a higher place in Hollinger's rankings?

[will_spurs]

The Sixers play Charlottes 4 times, so that helps them when it comes to margin of victory.

[Cry Havoc]

It's Hollinger. Anyone who's been paying attention knows that the 6ers have zero shot at a le this year. None. The Celtics probably have a better chance of winning it all.

[timvp]

That's why you don't forfeit.

[housious]

I'm drunk

[slick'81]

well that settles it

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

The Hollinger Regular Season Trophy is slipping away. This is a disaster.

[pgardn]

That's why you don't forfeit.

What?

You dont forfeit to get a higher Hollinger ranking? Does he give a flat basketball trophy for winning in his system?


Oops. Sorry.
I realize this was addressed fully on the 2nd page.
I get flagged for an unnecessary dogpile.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

That's why you don't forfeit.

Why? So you can do better in some Hollinger model and win one meaningless game out of 66 instead of getting needed rest for a thin (at the time) roster?

Putz.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

Models are useful.
Models are wrong.

They lose their effectiveness when their samples are too small or they try to be too specific.

[100%duncan]

Don't care

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Bear in mind, the 30 point forfeit to Portland (further magnified by the fact that Portland had a near .550 winning percentage at the time) really hurt our average scoring margin.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

We're at +4.85 for the season right now. Had we won that game by, say, 10 (which isn't totally unreasonable if we had been at full strength and were desperately trying to win that game alone), our overall margin would be nearly a full point higher (~+5.85).

The (arbitrary) mathematical model doesn't make such distinctions. It doesn't take injuries into account. It doesn't recognize "forfeits" or anything of the sort. As far as the model is concerned, our team at "full strength" was trounced by Portland by 30.

He tries to model seasons. The problem is this season is not like other seasons so the model sucks.

[Spurtacus]

Damn. We should tank.

[Borosai]

It's time:

[PublicOption]

Here we go again with that ......I learned to say em and bring on the

[Sean Cagney]

yo computer stats punk!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Aztecfan03]

according to the odds right now, if the Sixers make finals, they have almost 61% chance of winning.

The spurs have a higher chance of going to the finals than the sixers, but the odds of winning it once they get there are about 40%.

His makes some sense, since the west will have to face miami or chicago in most scenarios.

But i think the spurs chance of making the finals should be a lot higher.

[TampaDude]

If the Spurs make the Finals, they will win it all. They don't lose in the Finals, period.

[Proxy]

I mean, yeah... the odds will be up if the first round is guaranteed victory.

[Agloco]

Bear in mind, the 30 point forfeit to Portland (further magnified by the fact that Portland had a near .550 winning percentage at the time) really hurt our average scoring margin.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

We're at +4.85 for the season right now. Had we won that game by, say, 10 (which isn't totally unreasonable if we had been at full strength and were desperately trying to win that game alone), our overall margin would be nearly a full point higher (~+5.85).

The (arbitrary) mathematical model doesn't make such distinctions. It doesn't take injuries into account. It doesn't recognize "forfeits" or anything of the sort. As far as the model is concerned, our team at "full strength" was trounced by Portland by 30.

We actually lost by 40, so a buzzer beater would have gotten it done as well.

[703 Spurz]

Right so when Philly loses in the 1st or 2nd round, that automatically eliminates the Spurs.

Makes a whole lot of sense