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Great post Timvp. If the team keeps it up not only will it become habit, it will become part of who they are. Most encouraging sign of the season so far.
Nice write up timvp. I've been impressed with the D so far this year as well. Most of it has to be because of Timmy and him turning back the clock. I've noticed that him, Tiago, and even Bonner have been more physical under the basket in the paint. I've also liked the perimeter D as opposed to the perimeter D of the past couple of years.Like others have said, it's going to come down to if the Spurs can sustain this level of play all season and into the playoffs. I think they'll be able to keep it up for the most part, but we'll just have to wait and see..
Great post Timvp. If the team keeps it up not only will it become habit, it will become part of who they are. Most encouraging sign of the season so far.
Well, yeah, but it's important to note that it's virtually impossible in this day and age to defend at the level they were defending at in the mid aughts.
Whether they slip significantly, less so or not at all, I do think they'll remain their best defensive team since '08, but that's not necessarily saying much.
For all the nuanced areas and incremental individual improvement you've mentioned, as I said in my far less detailed thread about the defense a few weeks ago, it's all about Duncan. If he can maintain this level of mobility, then they'll continue to defend at or close to this level, but if his mobility regresses to where it was before his resurgence last season, the defense will fall apart again.
Yeah, the on-off stat looks great. I'm just not sold at all on the other having some kind of meanings.
More generally, a big change compared to last year is how much the bench is better defensively. While the bench was awesome offensively last season, they were bad too defensively.
The stat that shows it more is the on/off court stats for Duncan:
2011/2012:
With Duncan: 100.9 points allowed by 100 possessions.
Without Duncan: 107.1 points allowed by 100 possesions.
2012/2013:
With Duncan: 102.1 points allowed by 100 possessions.
Without Duncan: 100.7 points allowed by 100 possesions.
Splitter/Diaw >> Splitter/Bonner
One of the interesting things to me at the quarter pole is that the Spurs have been so good, but two of their strengths of the last few years have been more average. Last year, the Spurs were 1st in both 3% and Defensive Rebounding %. This year, they are 10th in 3% (http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/te...ntFieldGoalPct)
and 13th in DRR. (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/tea...defReboundRate)
The fact that the offense is so good at a lower 3 point clip, and defense so good despite relatively poor rebounding is a good sign.
Disagree. The Celtics of the last two seasons have been >6% better than league average each season, which is comparable to what the Spurs did. Thus, it's not accurate to say "virtually impossible" when the Celtics are doing just that.
IMO, the key is staying somewhere north of 4% better than league average. Recent champions show that you're in good shape if that's where you can be.
Duncan is definitely part of the equation. But the improvement of the bench, as Bruno indicated above, is also a very important piece of the puzzle.
It'd be erroneous to ignore what Duncan is contributing, however it'd be just as wrong to pretend he's doing it all by himself right now.
More stops= you will give up more offensive rebounds, the low 3pt% is due Manu, Green, Neal slow start
They've gone from the mid-20s to 13th in DRR in the last three games. Over 80% in each of those games.
I meant in terms of sheer numbers. Nobody holds the opposition to 88 ppg, 40% shooting, etc., anymore.
Interesting. Keep us posted every few weeks on where they are in relation to the league average.IMO, the key is staying somewhere north of 4% better than league average. Recent champions show that you're in good shape if that's where you can be.
True, but I still maintain that if he falls, the defense falls with him. No amount of incremental improvement from anyone else is going to change that.Duncan is definitely part of the equation. But the improvement of the bench, as Bruno indicated above, is also a very important piece of the puzzle.
It'd be erroneous to ignore what Duncan is contributing, however it'd be just as wrong to pretend he's doing it all by himself right now.
Apologies. If that's what you meant, you're right. No team will ever touch those numbers posted by the 1999 and 2004 Spurs.
Agreed. Duncan is still the anchor of the defense. If he falls off a cliff at some point (which could happen given his age), no amount of smoke nor mirrors will be able to camouflage that turn of events.
I'm not sure the numbers can answer a question like this, but I'm curious about it all the same.
Is it better to be 10th in defensive efficiency and 1st in defensive rebounding rate, or 4th in defensive efficiency and 13th in defensive rebounding rate?
Obviously the same question can be asked with other rankings. I suppose the latter is better in this case, because defensive efficiency is what it's all about (and encompasses all points allowed, including second chance points).
interesting stat brought up in the nba.com power rankings
"Last season, the Thunder scored 5.3 points per 100 possessions more than the league average. This season: 9.2, making them the best offensive team since the 2003-04 Mavericks. On Sunday, they rolled through the Pacers' defense, which ranked No. 1 before the game started. The only teams that have held them under a point per possession are the Spurs and ... the Pistons."
the removal of and the benching of Blair for Diaw until recently have to contribute some to the improvements
id imagine if blair was phased out completely we could easily be a top 2-3 team
I know Diaws defense was very good at the begining of the season and his individual post defense vs back to the basket type players is also really good
stephen jackson and diaw were part of the 2010 bobcats team under larry brown that was one if not the best defensive team in the nba
I still dont feel like the spurs are a good defensive team though from watching them
more like the rest of the league is just worse then we are
but im hoping it keeps up
If the spurs could improve the offball screen and pick and roll defense then we could easily be the top defense statistically
and if we had a thibodeauesque coach who ran our starters into the ground during garbage time we probably would be the #1 defense statistically
That's a difficult question to answer. First of all, he's definitely been an improvement to "He Who Shall Not Be Named" defensively. Advanced stats say he was 1.4 points per 100 possessions better instantly last season and another 1.1 points per 100 possessions this season on top of that.
However, raw on-off stats say the Spurs are better this season defensively when Jack has been on the bench. But that doesn't tell the whole story because:
1) He's played a lot of small ball power forward. Traditionally, the Spurs score a lot in small ball but they also give up a whole lot of points. To be fair to Jack, you'd have to take into account that even if they are slightly worse with him at PF, it's not as bad as they have been traditionally in small ball alignments.
2) He mostly played early in the season and it's only been the last week or two that the bench has really stepped up defensively (namely Tiago Splitter). We'll have to wait to judge him once he gets back and plays with the newly energized bench.
Basically, we can say that Jack has been a help on the defensive end compared to HWSNBN but how much of a help can not be quantified as of yet.
That has definitely helped. Per 48 minutes, the Duncan/Splitter pairing is allowing only 89.8 points per 48 minutes. The rest of the time, the Spurs have allowed 94.9 points per 48 minutes.
And I'd argue that the helpfulness of that duo is even greater than those numbers suggest since we remember what happened last year when Duncan/Splitter wasn't an option. I don't think Bynum's 300 rebounds in one game has to be restated.
I think a lack of Bonner in the regular season won't change much because he's always been a decent to slightly above average defender in the regular season. However, the biggest difference will come in the playoffs where Bonner routinely gets exposed. If Pop can ready his team to go to battle without leaning on Bonner at all, that should result in sturdier postseason defense.
I'm curious about the defense. I thought it would have fallen off by now after a few good showings in the first 5 games or so. To compare to last season:
2011-2012 opponent FG%, first 21 games: .4596 (my own math so it's subject to error)
2012-2013 opponent FG%, first 21 games: .433 (per NBA.com)
That's a very noticeable improvement.
I think it's also important to note that the Spurs finished last season at .452 in that statistic (per ESPN), so they really didn't deviate too much from what they started with. But I'm not sure if that's the norm for them or if last season was a standout.
I hope it stays. If so, they'll have both an elite offense and elite defense. They've never had that combination in the Duncan era.
Yeah, you answered your own question. The most basic equation for the number of possessions in a game is (FTA * .44) + FGA + TO - ORB ... so offensive rebounds basically continue a singular possession. Thus, as you said, it's all about the points allowed per possession.
But, hypothetically, if the Spurs can continue improving their defensive rebounding rate, their defensive rating will also improve since most every team scores more points per possession following an offensive board.
06-07 Spurs were 2nd in defense and 5th in offense.
Duncan resurgence has been key, but I think it's due to having a full camp focused on D, and players maturing around him, namely Tiago. Just the fact he's part of the regular rotation, tall and mobile is something Duncan hasn't had next to him in awhile. I've said it before, the best way to keep Duncan fresh for the season and the playoffs, is putting him next to a big that's not a defensive liability, where Duncan has to exert extra energy to cover for him.
DRR is a percentage. It naturally accounts for the added opportunities for the opposition to grab offensive boards.
Great work on the comparison
By your numbers, the Spurs 5.8% better in terms of opponents field goal percentage from this point last season. That's a pretty huge improvement. Good find.
For the record, the closest the Spurs have been to elite on both ends was either 2001 (1st defensively, 6th offensively) or 2007 (2nd defensively, 5th offensively). Right now, the Spurs are 5th offensively and 4th defensively. The offense is trending upward and I doubt it'll drop out of the top five. Top two is probably doable as long as the health is there. So if the defense can remain top five, that'd be great.
I wondered about that after I posted. Thanks.
Great read. Thanks for the write-up.
Now watch the Rockets systematically dismantle the Spurs' defense and make this thread the laughingstock of the evening.
This fantastic writing is why we're addicted to ST, LJ. Thanks.
Yeah, I'm ready for the Rockets to put 115 points on 90 possessions just to destroy all the good work.
Thought this was interesting as well:
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