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I think Tim Duncan's resurgence has a lot to do with the quality of the defense this year.
The San Antonio Spurs have garnered the top seed in the Western Conference in each of the last two seasons. Regrettably, as the world knows, neither successful regular season campaign translated into an NBA championship -- or even a trip to the Finals.
This season, with a quarter of the schedule in the books, the Spurs are once again atop the West. However, there is reason to think this year may be different and not simply a replay of the last two campaigns. That reason is the return of an elite defense.
Coming into this season, the Spurs had regressed defensively for nine consecutive years. The decline has been gradual but also irrefutable. In recent campaigns, the Spurs have adjusted to their increasingly porous defense by concentrating more on the offensive end. Statistically, the Spurs have sported the best offense in the NBA over the last two seasons.
Unfortunately, San Antonio has been reminded (quite harshly, in fact) that a great offense can only take a team so far without a sturdy defensive backbone to rely on when the going gets tough. Coming into this season, head coach Gregg Popovich and the rest of the coaching staff made it priority No. 1 during training camp to regain that defensive mettle. To date, the results are encouraging.
Currently, the Spurs are tied for fourth in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions (also known as defensive rating) at 100.6. But it’s even better than that: Before the start of the garbage time fourth quarter against the Charlotte Bobcats on Saturday night in which they surrendered 35 mostly uncontested points, the Spurs had actually moved up into second place in the league in this category.
2012-13 Defensive Rating
It should also be noted that the Minnesota Timberwolves have faced the league’s easiest schedule and the Chicago Bulls have faced the third easiest schedule. The Spurs, on the other hand, have faced the NBA’s eighth toughest schedule -- and that doesn't factor in the road-home inequality of their schedule. In other words, it’s reasonably safe to state that the Spurs have been the league’s second best defensive team so far this season.
As it stands, the 100.6 defensive rating represents a defense that is 4.23% better than league average. The chart below points to the significance of that amount.
Percentage Better than League Average Defense
The Spurs haven’t been this good defensively since the 2008 campaign. While San Antonio has boasted some great defensive teams over the years, this squad compares favorably to the 2003 championship team. Additionally, the Spurs right now are better defensively than the last four NBA champions and seven of the previous eight teams that made the Finals.
The next logical question: Why are the Spurs better defensively this season even though they brought back virtually the same roster from last year?
As with most things in San Antonio, it begins with the Big Three. The defensive improvements brought upon due to the rejuvenation of Tim Duncan don’t need much explanation. He’s currently posting career-highs in blocks per minute, steals per minute and defensive rebounds per minute. That’s simply astounding for a 36-year-old.
But don’t overlook Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili. Parker has been mentally engaged on the defensive end all season. Over the first 21 games, opponents are only putting up a 13.9 PER against him -- Parker's best showing since the championship seasons.
Ginobili’s defensive advanced metrics thus far are mindboggling. Coming off of a lackluster season on this end of the court, the Argentine has turned it around -- and then some. Opponents have an unbelievably low 9.0 PER against him. To prove that’s not a fluke, consider this: The Spurs have a 96.3 defensive rating when Ginobili is on the court and a 105.4 defensive rating when he’s on the bench.
Add it up -- Duncan's revival, Parker’s concentration and Ginobili’s crushing of the opposing bench – and the team’s defensive improvements aren’t as much of a mystery.
I recently conversed via email with someone associated with the Spurs in an attempt to dig deeper on this very subject. I was told the coaches specifically focused on two defensive areas leading up to the regular season. One was defending the three-point line and the other was being more physical.
In reviewing game tape, I’ve noticed how the Spurs have borrowed a few defensive principals from the Chicago Bulls of recent years. The Bulls under Tom Thibodeau have been extremely successful on defense mostly by eliminating open three-pointers -- particularly in the corners. They’ve led the league in fewest three-pointers allowed each of the last two seasons and the result has been a top-two placement in defensive rating both seasons.
This year, the Bulls are again leading in that category. However, as you can see in this chart, the Spurs are second.
Three-Pointers Allowed Per Game
Historically in the Popovich era, the Spurs have been good at limiting three-pointers. But the last two years, the Spurs were 11th and 7th, respectively, in fewest three-pointers allowed. To combat that slippage, the Spurs have subtly altered from where they send double-teams and how they defend pick-and-rolls. The outcome up until now has been positive.
An increase in physicality is more difficult to measure -- but not impossible. Last season, the Spurs averaged 17.3 fouls per game. That number is up 4% this year to 18.0. Last season, the Spurs allowed .168 free throw attempts for every field goal attempt. This year, that number is up 10.1% to .185. Also, steals are up 10.8% and blocks are up 13.6%.
During training camp, the Spurs brought in Jerry Sloan and one can securely assume that Pop picked his brain regarding how to best teach the virtues of physical play. Sloan was one of the most physical players to ever play the game and his Utah Jazz teams never shied away from laying the lumber. While the Spurs haven’t gone all the way to becoming a physically imposing squad, there has definitely been movement in that direction.
Subjectively, the San Antonio’s perimeter players are picking up sooner and more aggressively. The bigmen are fighting for position in the paint earlier in the shot clock. The Spurs are also rarely doubling off of three-point shooters while simultaneously avoiding the open lanes to the rim they had been allowing the previous few seasons by being a touch more physical. Overall, there hasn’t been a drastic change or a eureka moment defensively, but rather slight modifications to the gameplan that when combined have allowed today’s Spurs to better defend how today’s offenses operate.
Can the defensive improvements continue to succeed for the duration of the season? That’s the $250,000 question. While it’s probably impossible for the Big Three to continue their torrid defense for 61 more games and the playoffs, perhaps their unavoidable slippage can be negated by the return of Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Jackson in addition to the a continued team-wide mastery of the new defensive philosophies.
I can’t blame Spurs fans for their cynicism at this stage of the regular season. Around these parts, many a great win-loss record has ultimately proven to be more style than substance as of late. But, so far, this year is different. The winning formula of here and now is reminiscent of formulae that resulted in nearly a handful of rings. Maybe it all unravels before the finish line. Maybe it doesn’t. That hope, for the first time in a while, has a backbone.
I think Tim Duncan's resurgence has a lot to do with the quality of the defense this year.
Not only that, the defense as of late has been AMAZING considering the past few years. Not only that, it has been done without the Spurs' best perimeter defender, Leonard.
Excellent write up as always timvp
How much credit would you give the improved defense to greater minutes from SJax (though he's been injured lately, but didn't join the team till the final third of last season) as well as more minutes for Tiago being paired with Duncan? Could the lack of Bonner also be helping since the rotations have been tweaked a little bit from this year when compared to last.
Good stuff, thank you. The step up in team D has been noticeable, but I haven't really appreciated the physicality aspect except for what seems to be a renewed intensity in rebounding. It seems that the usual culprits of weak D are still there, naming DeJuan and Neal and Bonner in particular, but the latter two have noticeably stepped up their D. Neal is no longer the outright liability he was before and he fights through screens better than previous seasons. Looks promising.
Looks like Manu is the best perimeter defender according to opposing PER.
I don't know that the quality of his defense has gone up that dramatically, but his health and subsequent ability to play more minutes during the first three quarters is huge.
Great post and thanks for all the info. The game against the Grizzlies is when I noticed our philosophy changed a bit. I felt like I haven't seen us grind out a game like that in a longgg time. It's good to see Pop is back preaching his old ways and focusing on that side of the floor again. Now if we can just match an improved defense with last years offense...
Memories of hearing Pop say "we just need to make more baskets" for all those years still makes me sick to my stomach.
Definitely. While he's really defending the rim well, his biggest improvement is probably in regards to defending pick-and-rolls. The added quickness that has helped his offense so much is just as helpful when it comes to dealing with pick-and-roll sets. Teams haven't been able to exploit him much this year, which is definitely a change from the last couple seasons.
It's clear the acquisitions of Kawhi and Jax are the reason we are focusing on defence again. The last few years we just haven't had the players to do it.
The difference between Bogans/Jefferson and Kawhi/Jax on the wings should be enough to understand why Pop went for an attacking team and why he has subsequently reverted back to defence.
Last season, I spent much of the regular season whining about Ginobili's defense -- or lack thereof. But this year he's been good on that end. I don't know if he's been as good as his advanced metrics suggest ... but he's been pretty darn ferocious on D so far.
I think part of it is that he becomes so enraged when things don't go right for him on the offensive end (missed shot, turnover, etc) that this year's relative struggles on O have really energized his D. For example, that recent game in which he had six turnovers and shot poorly, he made up for it by swiping six steals in addition to numerous other defensive plays. Hopefully he keeps this level of destruction once his offensive games comes all the way back.
Excellent work.
timvp, your analysis and post is so good, this thread should be syndicated!
You had to be really careful when you look at opponents stats on 82games.com. They are just using boxscores and assuming that the PG defends the opposite PG, the SG defends the opposite SG...
For Parker, this stat might be accurate because he almost always defends the opposite PG.
For Ginobili, I would be way more skeptical because they are tons of cross match-ups between SG and SF.
Using the mysynergy stats seems way more reliable.
This increase can be solely put on Bonner. Last season, Bonner was one of the least foul prone bigman in the history of the NBA. This year, he plays less and when he play, he fouls way more.
This team already has a different feel to it than the past few years.
Long road to go yet but I think we're going to be right there all year. Would be nice to nab the #1 seed and let Memphis and OKC beat on each other for 7 games.
For reference, the man to man defensive stats coming from mysynergysports.com:
Points allowed per play:
Joseph: 0.50
Jackson: 0.65
De Colo: 0.70
Anderson: 0.74
Leonard: 0.83
Parker: 0.86
Green: 0.87
Neal: 0.89
Mills: 0.91
Ginobili: 0.95
Diaw: 0.73
Splitter: 0.77
Blair: 0.82
Bonner: 0.82
Duncan: 0.88
Guarding the PnR is still going to be a major issue when going up against OKC/Mem. Marc Gasol was torching us with the pick n pop when we played this season and we all remember what Ibaka did to us in the WCF.
I'm hoping a 37yo Duncan can hold up in the playoffs and not get exploited but i just don't see how he keeps up this type of mobility all season long.
The onus is going to be pressuring the passer and weak-side help but i think it's just really going to come down to the Ibaka/Gasols of the West missing good looks because i think they're going to be there during the playoffs.
Thanks for the writeup. I've been following the improvement in the defensive numbers for a couple of weeks, but the source of the improvement hasn't been obvious to me. I appreciate the insights, especially with regard to the specific areas of emphasis from training camp.
So Duncan and Ginobili are the worse defensive players?
He is. It'll just be under some ESPN coach writers name.timvp, your analysis and post is so good, this thread should be syndicated!
What would the irony be if a le in 2013 is due to Jerry Sloan's help? How many Spur fans wanted him and the entire Jazz team's head on a pole in the 90's.
timvp, your analysis and post is so good, this thread should be syndicated!
I agree that the stat in itself loses value for Spurs swingmen because Pop sees those two positions as interchangeable. And it's especially iffy for Ginobili since Pop will usually try to rest him on the least potent opposing swingman.
However, that's why I included those on-off stats. When both of those numbers are fantastic, it'd take quite a fluke for both numbers to be randomly great.
I don't think Ginobili has been as amazing as those pair of metrics suggest but I do think he's been a lot better than last season. And at times, mostly when he's pissed about his offense, he does become the beast that is suggested.
I think Synergy stats should definitely be part of the equation when doing a comprehensive breakdown of a player's defense. Although, those numbers are also prone to not exactly tell the truth. For exactly, according to Synergy, Bonner has been one of the best bigmen defenders of the last half decade (if not the best). Subjectively, we just know that's not the case.
With those Synergy numbers, the more you avoid fouling, avoid playing help defense and avoid getting involved in transition defense, the better your Synergy stats will be. That's the perfect storm that has made Bonner appear to look like David Robinson and it's also why it's difficult to use it on Ginobili since he never shies away from getting involved in any type of play.
Not really because this stat doesn't fully reflect the quality of the man to man defense and because man to man defense is just a part of the defense.
TD, Manu and Kawhi are always gonna bring it defensively. However, I feel he team as a whole has given in to Pop's defensive ideology. Sure TD's resurgence is a huge factor but Tiago is also being more physical and aggressive on defense (and offense for that matter). Also, the two most unlikely duo, Neal and Bonner, have also shown they are not as much of a liability on D as they've been in recent years. Boris is also a pretty good defender but has yet to show it constantly this season though he has looked fine these past few games.
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