Do the Spurs...have enough to overcome Oklahoma City?

[Cry Havoc]

But Oklahoma City's four-game rally in the conference finals last season had the feel of a younger team figuring out how to beat its more polished elders — pack the paint on defense, leverage your athleticism advantage, and vary the play calling a tad.

None of which works if ANY of our players would have been moderately consistent from 3. If we shot like we did in the WCS, we would have walked into the finals in 5 or 6 games. We got cold and the Thunder got hot at the exact same time. If a team's players don't hit open shots, they aren't winning anything, regardless of who's playing on that team. We almost won that series playing 5 on 8 as it is.

James Harden is gone, but the Thunder are better. We should regard them as the favorites. The Spurs' offense isn't quite the same dominant machine it was last season —— and they'll need more sustained top-level play from Manu Ginobili to beat elite teams when it counts.

I don't understand this logic. How do people know the Thunder are better? Why do they list last season as an indicator for possible success but then use this regular season as a barometer for OKC's chances this post-season? Especially when the benches shorten as they do in the playoffs. There is no WAY you can say that losing one of the best SGs in the game for a spot up shooter who brings little else has made them better this year. They are going to be much easier to defend and adjust to, particularly when only Durant or Refsbrook is on the court.

The Spurs have outscored opponents by a monstrous 17.1 points per 100 possessions in 393 Duncan-Splitter minutes this season, and have gotten better on both ends of the floor when those two play, per NBA.com. The two shared the floor for just 129 minutes last season, and the Spurs' scoring dropped off in those minutes by 10 points per 100 possessions from its overall level.

I have a feeling we're going to almost completely neutralize Refsbrook. Parker is going to eat his lunch on offense, and when Refsbrook has the ball, he's going to have to dive into towers to get anything at the rim. It's not. Ganna. Happen.

they're "only" fourth in points per 100 possessions, a full three points below the top spot they held last season

Man, you can't pay for this kind of analysis. 4 - 3 = 1? Mind blowing.

[Dex]

Spurs will have their revenge. You heard it here first.

[boutons_deux]

Spurs will have their revenge. You heard it here first.

With a full roster, Spurs need to avoid going down 0-3 to Clips on national tv.

[Dex]

With a full roster, Spurs need to avoid going down 0-3 to Clips on national tv.

Not worried. Spurs lost both games to Cleveland in 2006-2007, then promptly sweeped King James out of the Finals without breaking a sweat.

[dbreiden83080]

Thabo still plays for the Thunder and guards Parker better than anyone else in the league.

The X factor is who is going to replace Harden's clutch shots in the 4th. Harden was a non factor in the finals had he shown up that would have been a dfferent series. Game 5 Harden was the primary reason OKC won with just clutch shot after clutch shot. The odds of Westbrook chucking up junk in the series goes way up minus Harden..

[Beaverfuzz]

Yes, the Spurs have enough. Miami will be a tall order to beat in a seven game series though.

[z0sa]

With a full roster, Spurs need to avoid going down 0-3 to Clips on national tv.

Per the usual, you're flamboyantly wrong. The Spurs couldn't care less about national TV. Just this season Pop rested players vs the Heat of all teams, in a nationally televised game.

Furthermore, Spurs raped the Clippers out of the playoffs last season, including one of the biggest comebacks in playoff history being executed on their home floor. The Clippers are dying to beat the Spurs, not the opposite.

OKC, different story.

[look_at_g_shred]

The X factor is who is going to replace Harden's clutch shots in the 4th. Harden was a non factor in the finals had he shown up that would have been a dfferent series. Game 5 Harden was the primary reason OKC won with just clutch shot after clutch shot. The odds of Westbrook chucking up junk in the series goes way up minus Harden..

My guess is Ibaka will play like Game 4 every game against us.

[Cry Havoc]

I, for one, feel that Pop should not react to OKC going small. Pop should just punish them in the post with a steady diet of Splitter Pick and Rolls, since that would relegate Durant to actually having to defend the post.

If OKC goes small, that would mean the lineup is KD at 4, Ibaka at 5, Sefalosha at 3, Martin at 2, and Westbrook at 1. While Ibaka would try to stay home, does that mean that KD has to defend Duncan? Splitter can just camp to the outside to suck out Ibaka and then Duncan can use the extra 35 pound advantage that he has to punish KD. OKC would need to have a incredibly efficient offense to offset the advantage the Spurs have at the post with Splitter and Duncan, plus the very occasional drives into the lane by Parker, Ginobili, and Leonard. Without Harden, I just do not think they can do it.

This is a great post. The OKC really have no matchup advantages except for obviously KD. I think Ibaka will even be much less effective this year since we have Splitter.

[benstanfield]

Imagine the '04-05 team trading Manu for 2013 Kevin Martin before the season.

[Captivus]

I would focus on psyching out Westbrook, that would be my plan.
Not having Harden is going to affect them, Im 100% sure.
Off course if Ibaka has a FG% of 100% there's no way to win.
Pop should also have no patience regarding refs and start complaining from the start of that series.

[benstanfield]

This is a great post. The OKC really have no matchup advantages except for obviously KD. I think Ibaka will even be much less effective this year since we have Splitter.

If they sign Derek Fisher they have an easy counter to Splitter.

[EricB]

Thabo still plays for the Thunder and guards Parker better than anyone else in the league.

Not without harden guarding Manu. That's fine though Manu will have big games. See my point? Without Harden able to single coverage Manu, they're either forced to move Thabo, or put Westbrook on Ginobili.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Not without harden guarding Manu. That's fine though Manu will have big games. See my point? Without Harden able to single coverage Manu, they're either forced to move Thabo, or put Westbrook on Ginobili.

TPark doing work son

[Morg1411]

Without Harden, I think so. I actually think the tougher team for the Spurs will be a healthy Clippers. Hopefully, the records stay like they are and both are on the other side of the playoff bracket. This way the Spurs only have to play one, assuming they get to the WCF.

My thoughts exactly, but there's still a lot of season left. No telling if we'll be able to hold onto the #1 seed that long.

I think the Spurs can take either OKC or the Clips in a playoff run, but it would be tough. Both of those teams are scary as this year.

[Arcadian]

Yeah, I think so.

And I don't buy that the Thunder are better this year. They were better last year.

[Roger Freemason Jr.]

It doesn't mention anything about the Spurs' improved defense.

[moisaenz]

Without harden, Westbrook will go hero ball mode.disregarding Durant..

[Roger Freemason Jr.]

It also doesn't mention how much worse of a player Kevin Martin is than James Harden. It also doesn't mention that they are 18th in the league in APG (21.9), & also 16th in points allowed. Last years Thunder wasn't that terrible on the assist front. The Spurs are 1st in the league is APG(25.0), and they are 10th in points allowed. The only edge for them, is rebounding, they average 42.7 rpg, and the Spurs average 41 rpg. That isn't that big an edge, and I have reason to believe Ibaka won't be eating boards too often with Tim Duncan around. I still think that Splitter needs to rebound better, and maybe bulk up a little more.

[hater]

Imagine the '04-05 team trading Manu for 2013 Kevin Martin before the season.

the ing goods

[moisaenz]

One other thing,Splitter will have more minutes.

[TampaDude]

Spurs D is much better this year, and Harden is no longer with OKC.

Spurs would win a 7-game series with HCA.

[TampaDude]

Yes, the Spurs have enough. Miami will be a tall order to beat in a seven game series though.

Yup...even with their flaws, Miami is ridiculously good.

Spurs-Heat Finals would be EPIC.

[BatManu20]

Yup...even with their flaws, Miami is ridiculously good.

Spurs-Heat Finals would be EPIC.

It also doesn't mention how much worse of a player Kevin Martin is than James Harden. It also doesn't mention that they are 18th in the league in APG (21.9), & also 16th in points allowed. Last years Thunder wasn't that terrible on the assist front. The Spurs are 1st in the league is APG(25.0), and they are 10th in points allowed. The only edge for them, is rebounding, they average 42.7 rpg, and the Spurs average 41 rpg. That isn't that big an edge, and I have reason to believe Ibaka won't be eating boards too often with Tim Duncan around. I still think that Splitter needs to rebound better, and maybe bulk up a little more.

Don't be fooled. Martin is obviously not Harden but he's still a knock down shooter who's averaging 14 points on 44% shooting from 3. He's a damn fine player. He's going to get looks when Westbrook and and Durant drive the lane, and if he's knocking them down, OKC will be very hard to beat.

[SpurPadre]

Not without harden guarding Manu. That's fine though Manu will have big games. See my point? Without Harden able to single coverage Manu, they're either forced to move Thabo, or put Westbrook on Ginobili.

This theory becomes null and void when you consider the fact that Manu went off for 38 points in Game 5 last year yet TP was getting -slapped by Sefolosha and we lost the game. So, yes, Manu going off is obviously going to help but if they shut down one of our Big 3, we're going to be in trouble.