Do the Spurs and Clippers have enough to overcome Oklahoma City?
This is perhaps the most interesting big question in the league, and one that at first sounds disrespectful to the team with the NBA's best record. The Spurs sport a spry Tim Duncan, a legit bronze-medal MVP candidate in Tony Parker,5 and a stingier defense than last season — thanks in part to the improved synergy of the Duncan–Tiago Splitter combo.6But Oklahoma City's four-game rally in the conference finals last season had the feel of a younger team figuring out how to beat its more polished elders — pack the paint on defense, leverage your athleticism advantage, and vary the play calling a tad.
James Harden is gone, but the Thunder are better. We should regard them as the favorites. The Spurs' offense isn't quite the same dominant machine it was last season — they're "only" fourth in points per 100 possessions, a full three points below the top spot they held last season — and they'll need more sustained top-level play from Manu Ginobili to beat elite teams when it counts.
6. The Spurs have outscored opponents by a monstrous 17.1 points per 100 possessions in 393 Duncan-Splitter minutes this season, and have gotten better on both ends of the floor when those two play, per NBA.com. The two shared the floor for just 129 minutes last season, and the Spurs' scoring dropped off in those minutes by 10 points per 100 possessions from its overall level.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...alf-nba-season
I'll be curious to see how SA does against the Clippers tomorrow, but I think there are going to be too many question marks for this team to get to the finals. If everything works out the Spurs will probably lose in the WCF in 6 like last year. Once you get to the final four the teams with the superstars will win out.
Refs win 100% of the time.
I miss the days when these articles were about if other teams had enough to overcome San Antonio...
Oh wait, that never happened.
Without Harden, it shifts their entire defensive matchups in favor of the Spurs. Parker's numbers should be way up.
spurs have a good shot tbh. harden is gone, fisher aint their to hit daggers. the main question will be is can ibaka shoot lights out again, can perkins and collison knock down bull jumpers again?
Thabo still plays for the Thunder and guards Parker better than anyone else in the league.
Jackson can take care of those Abaka jumpers
true dat abaka aint bout dat life
No we don't. Bottom line.
I think it's still going to be an uphill climb for the Spurs, to be sure, but I'm less convinced than others (perhaps) that the 2012 WCF exposed some significant gap between the teams.
There's plenty of reason to think that if Harden doesn't make a three deep in the clock with under 30 seconds to go in Game 5, the Spurs re-seize momentum and -- at the very least -- force OKC to win a road Game 7 in SA. Ifs and buts, yeah -- but in the broader context of the series, Harden's three ended a 13-2 Spurs run that covered more than 5 minutes of the 4th quarter and which had cut the Thunder lead from 101-88 to 103-101. Great players on winning teams make that shot (and make it on the road to stave off a monumental collapse); Harden keeping his team from going down the drain is part and parcel of him being a great player (Harden also had 12 of the Thunder's 27 points in that 4th quarter). But if that one rims out, there's reason to think the Spurs win Game 5 and re-inject a little doubt back into the Thunder; as it was, having staved off that run to win a crucial road game had to just increase that team's confidence.
I'm not saying the Spurs were the better team or that they were screwed somehow; I'm just saying that the reality of the situation is that the Spurs were closer than many give them credit for in hindsight -- as this board well knows.
Notwithstanding that, one thing that I don't see mentioned much but which might be significant if the Spurs and Thunder meet again is the fact that several other teams have tried to mimic the Sefalosha-on-Parker concept in trying to slow Tony; aside from the fact that the Spurs can try to be better prepared to handle that sort of a switch if Brooks chooses to use it again, Parker has had to deal with it and seems (from my vantage point) to have figured out some ways to overcome the size of bigger defenders. Sefalosha is a different creature because not every long guy who gets assigned to Parker has Sefalosha's defensive gifts, but Tony's at least getting a look at that problem and seems to be finding ways to maintain his effectiveness in those situations.
As far as I'm concerned, the Spurs are the favorites in the West right now, though only by a small margin. I'd take the Spurs in 7 over OC or LAC if it started tonight (i.e. Spurs have HCA).
Splitter playing a regular rotation role is a huge difference also. Splitter setting screens on Sefalosha - is a big difference. Splitter being buried on the bench with no confidence after another Pop episode - is another huge factor.
Maybe these things will be enough to tilt the outcome. Keeping Blair who plays his best ball against OKC - and Pop actually allowing Blair to see the floor might also he helpful to the Spurs cause.
that, last year is so last year. While the article moans about 3 less points in the fourth quarter, why is it they don't talk about how much better the defensive metrics are for this year's team over last year's?
Plus without Harden's Manu-like playmaking wizardry to set up all those easy jumpers for Ibaka and Collison PLUS take pressure off of Westbrook's questionable decision-making late, the real question should be, Does OKC still have the firepower to hold of the much improved defense of the Spurs?
Last edited by Man In Black; 02-20-2013 at 01:56 PM.
All depends on Manu and Green imo. If Manu plays like he did against OKC last year, and Green can knock down his open looks, then we have a good shot. If not, then we'll lose. Simple as that.
Is no one worried that OKC going small with Durant at PF will take Splitter (their 4th best player according to the other thread) out of the equation and substantially decrease the Spurs' defense this year? KD is capable of playing the whole game and that'll relegate TS to the bench instead of the TD/TS duo that's made their defense so good this year. That's kinda why I'm hoping for LAC to eliminate OKC. If LAC would trade away Bledsloe, SAS would stand a fairly good chance of going to the Finals. Of course, MIA will also go small with LJ at PF.
i hate your blair take, but i'm 100% with you on splitter.
For some reason Blair plays really great against OKC. If Pop would just give Blair ---all of Bonners minutes---at least against OKC -- the Spurs would beat OKC. No lie.
This, Splitter screens>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Boris/Bonner screens.
But Thunderefs are the favorites tbh
I, for one, feel that Pop should not react to OKC going small. Pop should just punish them in the post with a steady diet of Splitter Pick and Rolls, since that would relegate Durant to actually having to defend the post.
If OKC goes small, that would mean the lineup is KD at 4, Ibaka at 5, Sefalosha at 3, Martin at 2, and Westbrook at 1. While Ibaka would try to stay home, does that mean that KD has to defend Duncan? Splitter can just camp to the outside to suck out Ibaka and then Duncan can use the extra 35 pound advantage that he has to punish KD. OKC would need to have a incredibly efficient offense to offset the advantage the Spurs have at the post with Splitter and Duncan, plus the very occasional drives into the lane by Parker, Ginobili, and Leonard. Without Harden, I just do not think they can do it.
Without Harden, I think so. I actually think the tougher team for the Spurs will be a healthy Clippers. Hopefully, the records stay like they are and both are on the other side of the playoff bracket. This way the Spurs only have to play one, assuming they get to the WCF.
my thoughts exactly
Absolutely.
No Harden, no problem.
Okay that's hyperbole but I feel Harden was both the X and Y factors in last season's WCFs. Not only that dagger in Game 5; he had many timely plays throughout the last 4 games.
I didn't think so until Pop mentioned how much better the bench was this year than last. Plus Harden killed us last year. I'd say it's 50/50.
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