So if this is true...why do we want trade Rasho and risk having no centers? It does not make sense. The Spurs will not spend 80 million on Nazr.
Here's a way to think about it. Rasho's deal could very well expose the Spurs to a loss in the amount of lux tax distributions they receive from the league if it helps to put them over the threshold. Since they have apparently decided that they prefer Nazr over him, and with Oberto joining the team, it is difficult to justify paying Rasho $30 mil over the next 4 seasons plus however much is foregone from the luxury tax program. Holt Cat has come to love those luxury tax payments.
Yeah, but Nazr is going to demand a lot more money next year and Spurs probably can't afford him, unless they go over the luxury threshold.
Unless they drop Rasho's deal...
Yeah, but Nazr is probably going be worth 80 Million or more...And that might push it over the threshold even without Rasho's contract.
I know what you are saying Marcus...Haha, i'm just worried some crazy team is going to offer him crazy money and we are going to be left with no one.
Consider this: maybe the Spurs management knows what they have in Nazr, and really like the idea of him and TD together for the rest of the TD era, as far as le aspirations go. Perhaps Spurs management has gotten the blessing to go over the threshold to keep Nazr if they can move Rasho.
They largely know what their payroll is going to look like for the next 4 years, and with Oberto coming in for cheap and Scola probably being forced to do the same down the road, those are small, fixed costs they know they can deal with.
Think about it...
Here's what they've got committed for the next several years: (number in parentheses is what salary they would have committed without Rasho on the roster)
05-06: TD, Manu, Parker, Horry, Oberto, Barry, Bowen, Rasho, Beno, Nazr, 58 million (51 million) with 4 spots to go.
06-07: Duncan, Parker, Manu, Horry, Oberto, Barry, Bowen, Rasho, Beno, 57 million (50 million)
07-08: Duncan, Parker, Manu, Barry, Bowen, Rasho, Beno, Oberto, 54 million (46 million)
08-09: Duncan, Parker, Manu, Nazr, Beno: 48 million (39.5 million).
09-10: Duncan, Parker, Manu: 45 million.
Now figure that Scola will probably be over next summer, and sign a 3-4 year deal, and expect the deal to start small, in the 2-3 million range.
If you notice without Rasho the Spurs team salary is on a sliding declining scale the next 4 years, and a new deal for Nazr starting next summer at somewhere around 7-8 million could slide in underneath the lux tax for the Spurs for every year but next year, assuming they can move Rasho for draft picks, an expiring contract, or short-term deals.
Just thought I'd add some more numbers to the discussion.
Nice point.
Before freaking out about resigning Nazr and whether he gets $70-80 million from some other team let's see if he can keep from sliding behind Oberto as the fourth big in the Spurs' rotation.
For the 2005-06 season it appears that Rasho won't cost the entire amount of his contract in foregone lux tax distributions, but that could very well be the situation starting in 2006-07. Over the last 3 years of his deal Rasho is guaranteed to make $23.5 mil. He could effectively cost the Spurs $47 mil over those 3 seasons in total if they are over the threshold. It might not be so far fetched to see the Spurs take the amnesty axe to him. This is what is motivating the Spurs' desire to drop him this summer ASAP. He could cost them roughly $2 to 3 mil for 2005-06 in lost lux tax distributions.
Best I can tell right now there's only going to be about 4-5 teams with a chunk of change next summer, and take a look at the FA classes of '06 and '07:i'm just worried some crazy team is going to offer him crazy money and we are going to be left with no one.
'06:
Al Harrington
Drew Gooden
Jason Terry
Nene
Tayshaun
Ben Wallace
Mike James
bobby Jackson
Lorenzen Wright
James Posey
Trevor Ariza
Tim Thomas
Joel Pryzbilla
Peja
'07:
Lebron
Paul Pierce
Primoz Brezec
Kirk Hinrich
Andres Nocioni
Josh Howard
Dirk
Carmelo
Milicic (you know some team will say what the , why not...)
Mickael Pietrus
Yao
Jonathan Bender
Dwyane Wade
T.J. Ford
Desmond Mason
Vince Carter
Jamaal Magloire
Mike Sweetney
Amare Stoudemire
Mike Bibby
Rashard Lewis
Chris Bosh
Antawn Jamison
(according to Patricia's Salary Cap/Contracts FAQ).
So some teams might be eyeing him next year, but you've also got two monster classes of free agents between next summer and the following one, with the eyes on the "prizes" of Amare, Lebron, Yao, and Wade.
"He could effectively cost the Spurs $47"
And Saddam had ICBMs armed with nuclear weapons. Total fantasy BS. There is no way the Spurs would run a payroll such that entirety of Rasho's salary would be over the cap and into luxury tax for the next 3 years.
I don't see why teams such as Indiana and New Jersey aren't interested...with Shaq in the east, they need a bigman that can defend him.
The maximum contract for another team's free agent having Nazr's experience is five years, $84 million right now. Is somebody going to throw a max contract at him?
Dampier got 6/73. But nobody except the Spurs can offer Nazr a 6-year deal under the new CBA. 5 is the limit. I think Nazr's market value is 5/60 or thereabouts.
I seriously doubt the Spurs will pay that.
And yet they're doing everything they can to dump Rasho??? Strange. They must really think Rasho sucks to do that.
Take a look at the guaranteed contracts the Spurs have over the next five seasons. If they want to remain compe ive and maximize what they get out of the luxury tax program then Radoslav has to go. That's reality.
It's more about the Spurs believing that he is not worth close to $60 mil over the next 4 seasons.
I don't think the Spurs think he sucks. I think it's about paying a guy that much to play that little. He's good against Shaq and Yao, but I don't think that's enough to justify the money.
I sure wish Nazr will stay loyal and sign a 6 year contract worth about 50 million.
No way Nazr's contract will average over 10. In fact I'll say there is no way he'll average over 7-8 in a spurs Uniform.
There is not going to be a feeding frenzy ala Dalembert for a guy that doesn't have 'upside' and is over 25.
Why are we comparing to Dampier? this is widely regarded as HUGE overpay (in the same category as Fisher/Foyle).
NJ has no ending contracts and nothing to trade. Indianna has Pollard's ending contract if they wanted to take on Rasho and his contract.
They don't have to think Rasho sucks. All they have to think is that between TD, Oberto, and Nazr, with Scola, Javtokas, Karaulov, and Ian in the wings there wouldn't be any playing time left for Radoslav.
It's about relative value. Oberto at a couple of million could be better than Rasho or Nazr. If Oberto is good they could let Nazr and Rasho, if they could lose him, go and sign some big lug to wrestle with Shaq and Yao a few minutes for a couple of million, using the extra money on an upgrade at SF.
Also, no one wants to help the champs and also, probably, one of the owners who originally pushed for the lux tax system. Front offices around the league know what is up. They know the Spurs are trying to continue to milk the lux tax program while they are winning championships.
It's not like any of this information is secret. If we jackasses know the terms of player contracts and the CBA rules then you can bet that other front offices are well aware of what the Spurs are trying to do.
Indeed. I would not be surprised to see them lose both Radoslav and Nazr over the next 12 months.
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