What impact will new Spurs make?

**spurs_fan_in_exile** · 09-13-2005

According to the quadratic equation if Nick Van Exel and Michael Finley lay down on the floor at a 45 degree angle Oberto will fit perfectly as a hypotenuse. Formulas mean exactly jack to me. This isn't fantasy basketball. Nick and Finley are going to be what they've always been, and Oberto is still a question mark in my mind until I see him play in the NBA.

**FromWayDowntown** · 09-13-2005

I'd need to run the numbers to empirically prove this, but I think the key thing with Finley over Brown is the consistency thing from a scoring standpoint.

Devin, to me, is a bit like Charles "Spider" Smith was in 2002.

Smith had a number of really spectacular games in which he looked like an offensive and defensive juggernaut. And in the end, his season numbers in 2002 ended up looking decent -- until you dug a bit deeper. Once you went behind the numbers, you found that some outrageous percentage of Smith's total points (61%) came from 18 games in which he averaged 15.0 ppg, or 25.97 points per 48 minutes (to control for minutes). In the other 42 games that he played in that year, Smith averaged 4.1 ppg, or 12.8 points per 48 minutes. That's a pretty radical swing and evidence of a substantial inconsistency, I'd say.

I ran Devin's numbers and 269 of his 494 points (54%) came in 15 games of the 67 games he played in last season. In those 15 games, Devin put up 29.4 points per 48 minutes. But in the other 52 games, Devin averaged 4.3 ppg and 13.5 points per 48 minutes. Again, that's a pretty good sample and is indicative of a fairly large disparity (inconsistency).

The bulk of Finley's points (82%) came in 42 of the 67 games in which he played last season (excluding the 22 games in which he scored 12 points or fewer). In those 42 games ("good games"), Finley averaged 19.6 ppg and 24.0 points per 48 minutes. In the 22 games in which he scored 12 or fewer points, his numbers weren't great, 8.2 ppg and 12.1 points per 48 minutes.

Certainly, there's some inconsistency with every player. This isn't intended to be a fool-proof stat, but in a pinch, I think it tends to suffice. The difference here is that Finley's good scoring games are far more common than his bad scoring games and in those good games, he plays very well. By contrast, Devin's bad scoring games are more common than his good scoring games.

Finley is here to provide consistent offense that the Spurs bench desperately lacked and based on the numbers, he's far more likely to provide that on a regular basis than Devin was.

**tekdragon** · 09-13-2005

What he said.

**Cant_Be_Faded** · 09-13-2005

I think it will be about if Finley is ready to play hard nosed D and come out and put a few points on the board. I've heard from a few how Finley sucks at D, and never was good. I've heard from a few others how he used to be a good physical defender, but age has slowed down his step.

I'm not a Finley or Mavericks fan, so I don't know which is true.

But hopefully he used to play some decent D, so that when he steps out onto the SA floor, he's ready to give it his all on the Defensive end, then come right back and make something happen. I think its possible since he'll be going up against other team's second units mostly, but it wont be unexpected to get the usual "adjustment time"

I dont think it will take him that long to adjust since AJ was stressing D in dallas towards the end of last season.

So I expect Finley to be a solid contributor if he stays healthy.

NVE is a given, imo, he will make the league's backup pointguards look silllllly....what he's lost in athletecism, he has in savvy, cunning, guile, etc, so Pop will just live with his poor D, and minimize it in the team defensive schemes.

**Rick Von Braun** · 09-13-2005

Originally Posted by FromWayDowntown

I'd need to run the numbers to empirically prove this, but I think the key thing with Finley over Brown is the consistency thing from a scoring standpoint.

Devin, to me, is a bit like Charles "Spider" Smith was in 2002.

Smith had a number of really spectacular games in which he looked like an offensive and defensive juggernaut. And in the end, his season numbers in 2002 ended up looking decent -- until you dug a bit deeper. Once you went behind the numbers, you found that some outrageous percentage of Smith's total points (61%) came from 18 games in which he averaged 15.0 ppg, or 25.97 points per 48 minutes (to control for minutes). In the other 42 games that he played in that year, Smith averaged 4.1 ppg, or 12.8 points per 48 minutes. That's a pretty radical swing and evidence of a substantial inconsistency, I'd say.

I ran Devin's numbers and 269 of his 494 points (54%) came in 15 games of the 67 games he played in last season. In those 15 games, Devin put up 29.4 points per 48 minutes. But in the other 52 games, Devin averaged 4.3 ppg and 13.5 points per 48 minutes. Again, that's a pretty good sample and is indicative of a fairly large disparity (inconsistency).

The bulk of Finley's points (82%) came in 42 of the 67 games in which he played last season (excluding the 22 games in which he scored 12 points or fewer). In those 42 games ("good games"), Finley averaged 19.6 ppg and 24.0 points per 48 minutes. In the 22 games in which he scored 12 or fewer points, his numbers weren't great, 8.2 ppg and 12.1 points per 48 minutes.

Certainly, there's some inconsistency with every player. This isn't intended to be a fool-proof stat, but in a pinch, I think it tends to suffice. The difference here is that Finley's good scoring games are far more common than his bad scoring games and in those good games, he plays very well. By contrast, Devin's bad scoring games are more common than his good scoring games.

Finley is here to provide consistent offense that the Spurs bench desperately lacked and based on the numbers, he's far more likely to provide that on a regular basis than Devin was.

Nice analysis FWD. Let me encourage you to continue in that analytical path and suggest to correlate the ppg and pp48 with minutes per game, and FGA/g in those games.

A drastic drop in ppg means very little if a player played few minutes. Perhaps the number of FG attempts he used in those minutes he played is even more important that actual minutes played.

Playing around with those variables will allow you to find a much better metric for player scoring consistency and efficiency.

**Vashner** · 09-13-2005

I didn't want Finley. So I promised to eat Crow.. well Dove with bacon wrap...
If he does real good.

**Marcus Bryant** · 09-13-2005

Finley's a guy who can come off the bench and drop 20 points easily. He's not going to get the level of touches to be able to do that often, but he's always a threat to, which will be a nice asset to have in the rotation.

Hopefully the Spurs can keep GRob on the cheap. The major issue for the Spurs heading into next season will be the health of the perimeter rotation. Having a guy like Robinson on the bench would be worthwhile, especially considering that the Spurs only have 4 true swingmen.

**yeahone** · 09-13-2005

well i agree with ceetain aspects of the artice but i personally beleive that finally will do good under our system becuase we arwe nto asking him to start jsut to come of the bench and play productuiive minuites to the team,,,i think finleys contribution cannot be measured in terms of stats,,,we also have to look at the intangibles he brings to this team,,,which is additional leadership experience.

**ducks** · 09-13-2005

another thing about big dog is if they resign him they should have his early bird for next year and be able to go over the cap to sign him

**Solid D** · 09-13-2005

FWD - your statistics could also be affected by a coach's usage of a player. Devin was often used based on matchups. Devin was also jerked out if he wasn't "on". Michael Finley was probably used a little less discriminately.

Those are minor points for a statistical skew, though.

**FromWayDowntown** · 09-13-2005

Originally Posted by Rick Von Braun

Nice analysis FWD. Let me encourage you to continue in that analytical path and suggest to correlate the ppg and pp48 with minutes per game, and FGA/g in those games.

A drastic drop in ppg means very little if a player played few minutes. Perhaps the number of FG attempts he used in those minutes he played is even more important that actual minutes played.

Playing around with those variables will allow you to find a much better metric for player scoring consistency and efficiency.

I thought about breaking it down with those other variables, since I know that they'll play some part in the explanations, but frankly, just didn't have time. My point is that, in real terms, the scoring output from a guy like Finley fluctuates far less than the scoring output from guys like Brown and Smith. It's not an altogether apt comparison other than the fact that the Spurs decision this summer came down to Finley or Devin, and I equate Devin with Charles Smith, offensively.

With a bit more time, I'll rework this to include the FGA, too.

**FromWayDowntown** · 09-13-2005

Originally Posted by Solid D

FWD - your statistics could also be affected by a coach's usage of a player. Devin was often used based on matchups. Devin was also jerked out if he wasn't "on". Michael Finley was probably used a little less discriminately.

Those are minor points for a statistical skew, though.

Completely agree, Solid D, that the statistics are far from perfect. I threw that together in about 15 minutes and wanted to at least find some numbers to support my perception. I'm certain that they don't account for many variables. I do think, though, that they tend to prove the broader point about consistent offensive output.

**Trainwreck2100** · 09-13-2005

Efficiency ratings use minutes, they won't get as many minutes so Fin and NVE at 75% in less minutes would up the rating.

**picnroll** · 09-13-2005

As I recall last season Devin started out pretty hot, he was effective with Beno early on, particularly running the break. Then he had a long stretch of sucking. Finally at the end of the season he started to pick up his game again just in time for his back to go out.

**Knoxville Spur** · 09-13-2005

The guy writing this probably thought Manu would do nothing in the NBA either. I don't put much stock in his opinion about Oberto.

**PM5K** · 09-14-2005

It's already been said but I have to totally agree, stats are only part of the equation in sports.

Unfortuantely we are dealing with the "preeminent statistical writer" in John Hollinger.

I actually think NVE has a very good chance of taking all of Benos minutes and maybe then some on certain nights, PFE, HEB, OPP, or whatever he calls it doesn't account for facts such as NVE having played almost as many playoff games as Beno has played regular season games, something like eighty to sixty. Or how clutch NVE is, NVE kept Dallas alive in the playoffs just a couple of years ago.

I don't even have to get into FIN....

Anyone have this guys email addy?

**LilMissSPURfect** · 09-14-2005

heck with all the mumble jumble...............

I AGREE.........IT's OVA !!!!!

**Rydia** · 09-14-2005

Originally Posted by Solid D

Very good.

I wonder what Steve Kerr's efficiency rating was prior to Tony Parker eating that bad Souffl'ee in Dallas? I doubt it was all that impressive.

I thought it was Creme Brulee, D. hahaha!

That guy is just going by stats... he needs to get off his horse...he's probably a Suns fan or something of this nature

**z0sa** · 09-14-2005

all I have to say is, in my opinion, Oberto looks to be the ... not MVP standards, I mean the perfect roleplaying center. Instead of pulling a rasho and flipping an air ball up hes gonna dunk with both hands and hes gonna pull down key rebounds and make a good pass to an open look here and there. and thats exactly what we need from him.

**Mavs<Spurs** · 09-14-2005

Originally Posted by spurs_fan_in_exile

According to the quadratic equation if Nick Van Exel and Michael Finley lay down on the floor at a 45 degree angle Oberto will fit perfectly as a hypotenuse. Formulas mean exactly jack to me. This isn't fantasy basketball. Nick and Finley are going to be what they've always been, and Oberto is still a question mark in my mind until I see him play in the NBA.

Right on. That's hilarious. Especially as a math student, I appreciate that.

Well said, I only wish I had said it!

**Mavs<Spurs** · 09-14-2005

Originally Posted by Marcus Bryant

Finley's a guy who can come off the bench and drop 20 points easily. He's not going to get the level of touches to be able to do that often, but he's always a threat to, which will be a nice asset to have in the rotation.

Hopefully the Spurs can keep GRob on the cheap. The major issue for the Spurs heading into next season will be the health of the perimeter rotation. Having a guy like Robinson on the bench would be worthwhile, especially considering that the Spurs only have 4 true swingmen.

Sweet, didn't know that keeping GRob was still possible. I really hope we do!

**Dalamar_the_Dark** · 09-15-2005

Originally Posted by 50 cent

I completely agree with you on that one (amazing, huh?). Would you rather have NVE bringing the ball up the court in Game#7 of the Finals with 12.47 PER or Beno with his 14.42 PER?

I'll take NVE.

Depends. Cause NVE takes bad shots.

**Obstructed_View** · 09-17-2005

I didn't see anyone mention this, but the thing many seem to be missing is the fact that the team has starting caliber talent so deep. Considering the ability of the three additions to play multiple positions, there's a lot of pressure on the opposing coaches to try to find a matchup to exploit. As a result, you might be able to look for Duncan's minutes to go down AGAIN this season, making him really fresh for the playoffs. That should scare the ever lovin' bejeezus out of everybody in the league.

**Obstructed_View** · 09-17-2005

Originally Posted by Cant_Be_Faded

I think it will be about if Finley is ready to play hard nosed D and come out and put a few points on the board. I've heard from a few how Finley sucks at D, and never was good. I've heard from a few others how he used to be a good physical defender, but age has slowed down his step.

I'm not a Finley or Mavericks fan, so I don't know which is true.

But hopefully he used to play some decent D, so that when he steps out onto the SA floor, he's ready to give it his all on the Defensive end, then come right back and make something happen. I think its possible since he'll be going up against other team's second units mostly, but it wont be unexpected to get the usual "adjustment time"

I dont think it will take him that long to adjust since AJ was stressing D in dallas towards the end of last season.

So I expect Finley to be a solid contributor if he stays healthy.

NVE is a given, imo, he will make the league's backup pointguards look silllllly....what he's lost in athletecism, he has in savvy, cunning, guile, etc, so Pop will just live with his poor D, and minimize it in the team defensive schemes.

Good points. Finley was an excellent defender at one point in his career, but he had a coach who doesn't exactly stress defense for seven years, so we haven't seen it for some time. He's two years younger than Bowen so he has no excuse for not being able to move his feet. Fin came from a "defense determines minutes" policy in Dallas to cushion the transition.

**GrandeDavid** · 09-17-2005

I like the Bill Gates finding a nickel on the street analogy. ha ha

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