A brief analysis of why the offense stagnates at its current state.

[ceperez]

I dont get why pop runs pnr/p with lma and green, and parker and duncan. It should be parker and lma, LMA's pnp game is deadly not post-ups.

This seemed to have worked early in the season, but the past two games, teams are anticipating that Parker pass and its not even reaching Aldridge. The problem is Aldridge does not mix it up by diving to the basket like what Splitter used to do.

[ceperez]

Some good observations Apo.
I also think you did a good job ranking them.

1. Agree that Lamarcus has been deficient posting up. He tries to draw fouls, but he doesn't bc he's not aggressive enough on them. Pop sometimes posts him up closer to the basket, and he's thrown a jump hook with mixed results. I feel like he's strong enough to bully some guys but he doesn't. It's probably not that he's "soft," since the guy is strong and he's big (some say fat, but no matter, he has bulk to throw around, that helps in the post).

I think his ballhandling is lacking, so he is not comfortable changing directions or pivoting. His post moves are not as nice as Diaw, Kawhi, Tim (he is really stiff at this point and slim so he's obviously not as effective posting up but he did use to have nice moves and occasionally will give us a throwback move), I'll even throw Anderson there (although he is a newbie and unproven player, and slim, he does have nice ballhandling which allows him to change directions, and he has flashed nice footwork, and a nice jumphook, and can pass out of it well too, but for Anderson, its just flashes, before someone goes crazy with my take).

The point is, I don't think Lamarcus is soft, but rather that he's not as skilled in the post as I have seen these other guys be. Not sure what Pop wants to do about this. Lamarcus is streaky and will be good out of post up situations sometimes.

The two man game between Danny and him rarely ends up in a quality shot for Green though and drains the shot clock, and leaves Danny to have to manufacture something and that is a Danny WEAKNESS. Maybe the two man game should be with Kawhi (what do you think?). Realistically, the LMA post up may be minimized, but it is not going away.

2. Agree with this completely. Occasionally Danny will be able to run a side PnR well enough. I don't want to discount the fact that Danny does get the occasional assist this way, but it is still very inefficient, runs the clock, may end up in a contested shot anyways, since he doesn't draw the defense, and LMA man closes him out, or Danny ends up with a contested shot at the basket (worst possible scenario for us). Basically nothing good comes out of it for a huge majority of the time.

3. I have my questions about TD PnR/Pop as well. It is fine in moderation, some teams are poor defending it still. When TD pops it's really not a threat so everyone clogs the paint, Tony doesn't have a shot at the rim, has to pass, the pass is predictable, etc. You might be onto something here.

4. Agree completely.

5. Agree on Kawhi iso. It stagnates, but he's incredibly efficient on them, and he's been passing out better when he doesn't have a good look at the basket.

OP had a very good post.

Agree entirely that LMA just doesn't have the post up skills that Diaw, Duncan, Leonard, Anderson and even Boban. He is also a terrible passer and probably a very poor reader of the defense. My sense is that he takes a nap too often mentally in offense and defense. I beginning to believe that his basketball IQ is at the bottom of the Spurs team, probably right next to Ray McCallum.

The Leonard post ups should only be done when he's got a mismatch. Too often he forces it despite a double team. However, he deserves some slack here because he needs to get exposed to tough offensive situations. Few in the team is in a position to create their own offense.

[ceperez]

You have a good point, if Simmons could defend like Danny you could make a case for Pop switching things around even with Simmons lack of credible shooting. I think he'll shoot the 3 if he's open in the corner at least at 37% (I am hoping, and trusting his 3 pt shooting in the dleague was not a fluke and he's flashed he can make the shot in few attempts so far.) He is definitely a better cutter and passer. I think Pop really loves Simmons too, bc he has not only "promoted" him (well deserved too), but also lets him play through mistakes a whole lot without pulling him. He's in high esteem. I have been consistent expressing my doubts with Danny in the bench, but it could be an experiment. If it doesn't work, go right back to current SL and status quo and make other adjustments.

I think Pop is reluctant to bench Danny if the issue is systemic and can be fixed some other way. WE will see.

There was a lineup with Danny that looked intriguing agains the Nuggets. If I recall, it had Bobo and Marjanovic posting up and you had Mills, Danny and Simmons(?). Bobo was consistenly posting up and with Marjanovic on the other side of the paint, the wings had a ton of space.

[ceperez]

Good take. Especially about the amount of energy needed to play D and how that affects the O.

Also, watch Aldridge on Pick n rolls. It's rare he ever makes contact with the defensive player when he sets a pick. I think he is the worst Picker I've ever seen. And that says something about Aldridge and his mindset. I'm not totally sold on this guy yet. I see his talent...not sure I've seen his heart. Still early tho.

He's obviously got the length and the talent. Unfortunately, there a problem with its mindset and its showing. He doesn't what to get hit! The picks there were there that used to free up folks just aren't there anymore.

Honestly, a lot of Spurs fans want LMA to step up and improve, I do too. The guy thinks he's got Robert Horry en lement in that he can coast in the regular season. Not happening if you are (a) new to the team and (b) not close to retirement age.

[ceperez]

Simmons is ready to play a role and has produced really well. He could expand that role, and hopefully he does but he's 26. I don't expect some breakthrough. He pretty much is who he is, which is fine. If anything, it would be huge if he could improve his 3 pt shooting. It would really make him a dangerous player and its maybe something that he can do with Chip regardless of age.

Cojo was really young and undeveloped. His game as a ball dominant guard was also not very complementary to the bench style, who already had another HoF ball dominant guard and the best passer in the team, so he wasn't going to play much.

Danny still gets Pop angry bc of his mental farts. In the beginning, he was so intolerable to Pop that he got cut.

Kyle is really skilled and could play in another team right away. He's young enough, and inexperienced enough still to have room for improvement and this is his first real rodeo. I am puzzled that the things that the Spurs had Kyle work on in the dleague and SL are not the things they are having him do here in the big team, so I think that is a big reason for why he has struggled on occasion. He's playing a different game. Simmons was pretty much doing the same things, now they are just more difficult. The challenge was increased, bigger/quicker/better guys to defend, offensively not as easy to blow by someone, or simply get uncontested shots at the rim. It's more difficult but it is the same game.

Kyle is not playing the same game they asked him to develop, so it is really puzzling.

Kyle is like Pop's favorite whipping boy. The upside though is that he gets to play. There's also a demand on him to make the difficult play when the clock expires. He got yanked by Pop when he let the clock expire against the Nuggets.

Right now Kyle is getting the Tony Parker treatment... which is a good thing.

The one who's really be treated badly though is Ray McCallum. Think about it, Pop subs him in for Kyle to emphasizes Kyle's mistake. Ray plays for a minute, but never sniffs the court after that. What does this say? It says to Kyle, I'm subbing you with the worst player on the team. To add insult to injury, I'm going to let the worst player in for just 1 minute!

Pop is a perfectionist when it comes to play. What do you think is going through his mind when he sees what LMA is doing on the court? It is driving him nuts and it is spilling out in conversation in public places.

[100%duncan]

This seemed to have worked early in the season, but the past two games, teams are anticipating that Parker pass and its not even reaching Aldridge. The problem is Aldridge does not mix it up by diving to the basket like what Splitter used to do.

Aldridge should shoot since he's better at it than driving, spaces the floor giving kawhi and parker more room to penetrate.

[ceperez]

Aldridge should shoot since he's better at it than driving, spaces the floor giving kawhi and parker more room to penetrate.

I wrote that he's not receiving the ball because teams are anticipating the pass from Parker. LMA game right now has next to zero versatility. It's like a poor man's version of Bonner. Instead of spacing the floor from the 3 point line, he's standing at the mid range. It is absolutely the worse!!

[benefactor]

#ceperez

[100%duncan]

I wrote that he's not receiving the ball because teams are anticipating the pass from Parker. LMA game right now has next to zero versatility. It's like a poor man's version of Bonner. Instead of spacing the floor from the 3 point line, he's standing at the mid range. It is absolutely the worse!!

He's not receiving the ball because he runs the pnr with danny and not parker

[ceperez]

Bobo may need to be with the starters for (1) better passing (2) better screens (3) additional 3 point threat (4) a post up game. One of either Duncan or Aldridge needs to move to the second unit.

Spurs are missing Tiago's screens and his passing. That's why it is so messed up now with LMA only exerting effort when he's the focus of the offense. LMA needs a change of at ude or he should be given a change of scenery.

#ceperez

[BD24]

Bobo may need to be with the starters for (1) better passing (2) better screens (3) additional 3 point threat (4) a post up game. One of either Duncan or Aldridge needs to move to the second unit.

Spurs are missing Tiago's screens and his passing. That's why it is so messed up now with LMA only exerting effort when he's the focus of the offense. LMA needs a change of at ude or he should be given a change of scenery.

#ceperez

Right, because we were doing so much better last year at this time with Tiago in the lineup

[weebo]

Considering the age of this team, you're not going to have your proverbial "cake and eat it too" with this squad, meaning the offense and defense won't be equally as good on most nights. Historically, elite defensive teams will have offensive struggles because of the energy you have to expend on the defensive end. This is why defensive minded teams tend to use more isolation in the post. When you have an elite defensive team (and it's possible this Spurs team can be historically good defensively), you want to slow the pace down and turn it into a half court affair.

For people wondering why the Spurs starters don't move off the ball more, that is why. No doubt some offensive sets are called to give Kawhi, Green, and even Parker a rest. When you see Kawhi standing around while LMA posts up, that is probably what's happening.

The offense could "look" prettier, but you're not going to be able to have a fluid motion offense and be able to play elite (top 2) defense at the same time. That said, the starting offense could be better, and I think the primary culprit is Danny Green.

Look what happens when you switch out Manu for Green:

http://stats.nba.com/league/lineups/...EVIATION&dir=1

The NET RTG goes from 6.2 to 28.6.

Look at the other 5 man units. All of the weakest feature Danny Green (aside from the last one, which is probably just an anomaly).

This. Pop has turned this team into a defensive minded team. I guess he figures that the only way to beat GS is to this current version into the late 90's-early '00's Spurs.

[TrainOfThought5]

Good take. Especially about the amount of energy needed to play D and how that affects the O.

Also, watch Aldridge on Pick n rolls. It's rare he ever makes contact with the defensive player when he sets a pick. I think he is the worst Picker I've ever seen. And that says something about Aldridge and his mindset. I'm not totally sold on this guy yet. I see his talent...not sure I've seen his heart. Still early tho.

We've been spoiled with TD and splitter and baynes all these years. But youre right... those picks are . Not sure if hes halfassing because its the regular season, or if hes soft.

[ceperez]

Here are the telling stats: http://stats.nba.com/league/lineups/...y=4&CF=GP*GE*2

For 4 man lineups, with more than 1 game played with that lineup.

The top for worse net rating lineups have LMA in all of them. In fact, 13 of the worst 19 lineups you have LMA on the court.

If you do 5 man lineups, LMA is in 5 of the 6 worst lineups.

[Mel_13]

Here are the telling stats: http://stats.nba.com/league/lineups/...y=4&CF=GP*GE*2

For 4 man lineups, with more than 1 game played with that lineup.

The top for worse net rating lineups have LMA in all of them. In fact, 13 of the worst 19 lineups you have LMA on the court.

If you do 5 man lineups, LMA is in 5 of the 6 worst lineups.

He's also in 5 of the top 7 groups in that link.

#smallsamplesize

#ceperez

[ceperez]

He's also in 5 of the top 7 groups in that link.

#smallsamplesize

#ceperez

The 5 group isn't as telling as the 4 group. He's in 4 of the top 7. Furthermore, you got Leonard with him on 3 of the 4.

Let's look at 4 group and top 24. Better sample size. 7 times in the top 28.

Compare that with the bottom 28 where his name shows up 18 times!

Go run the numbers as much as you want... damn obvious that LMA isn't performing.

In contrast, David West name shows up 9 times in top 28 and 7 times in bottom 28. Care to explain why LMA is showing up 18 times in the bottom?

[Mel_13]

The 5 group isn't as telling as the 4 group. He's in 4 of the top 7. Furthermore, you got Leonard with him on 3 of the 4.

Let's look at 4 group and top 24. Better sample size. 7 times in the top 28.

Compare that with the bottom 28 where his name shows up 18 times!

Go run the numbers as much as you want... damn obvious that LMA isn't performing.

Small sample size. You don't seem to understand what that means. Multiple lineups that have played just a few minutes together all season doesn't tell you anything worthwhile.

Eliminate the noise and you get something that just might be useful:


http://www.basketball-reference.com/...er_by=diff_pts

[ceperez]

Small sample size. You don't seem to understand what that means. Multiple lineups that have played just a few minutes together all season doesn't tell you anything worthwhile.

Eliminate the noise and you get something that just might be useful:


http://www.basketball-reference.com/...er_by=diff_pts

Which you just conveniently added a bias, that is, filtering out less than 50 minutes played together.

The entire data set you have has just 27 sample points and is biased in including mostly players who played a lot together.

Give me a bigger sample size and let's talk.

While you are at it, maybe you should look at Aldridge shot chart.

Here is Spurs eFG% http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/pla...gular%20Season

Guess who are the bottom 3? LMA, Green, McCallum

[Mel_13]

Which you just conveniently added a bias, that is, filtering out less than 50 minutes played together.

The entire data set you have has just 27 sample points and is biased in including mostly players who played a lot together.

Give me a bigger sample size and let's talk.

While you are at it, maybe you should look at Aldridge shot chart.

Here is Spurs eFG% http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/pla...gular%20Season

Guess who are the bottom 3? LMA, Green, McCallum

"You're biased by including all the samples with the most data"

#ceperez

[SAGirl]

There was a lineup with Danny that looked intriguing agains the Nuggets. If I recall, it had Bobo and Marjanovic posting up and you had Mills, Danny and Simmons(?). Bobo was consistenly posting up and with Marjanovic on the other side of the paint, the wings had a ton of space.

I watched the sections they played again. On a second look the game was interesting for the Pop experiments. Anderson didn't struggle as much as I remember and he was aggressive, which he needs to be to develop. He just made a couple of mistakes in a row and it was complicated by the Nuggets making a run with a series if consecutive Pnr between Nelson and Jokic. Sad to say Jokic did a number on Boban to finish the game scoring consecutively like4-5 Times in a row. Patty is poor defending PnR and needs a lot if help. Seems like Jokic figured Boban out. Kyle distracted from that bc Pop is really strict on him and Kyle himself git frustrated. Of anyone else in the team, he's really the youngster that is still developing and will have to learn through episodes like that.

But the whole point is that Pop experimented with combining the wings. He had Kawhi/Simmons to start followed by Kyle/Danny. Then he had Kyle/Simmons. All of these with different big men obviously. The whole game Simmons was at SG, Kyle at SF. I think all pairings worked really well for the most part. Kyle's traveling call at the end was questionable. He dribbled and wasn't pivoting. Can't get angry at him being aggressive and making a mistake. His going under a screen on Barton was the egregious mistake, and he dribbled into a trap bc he tried to run the PnR w/ LMA and was indecisive. He needs to speed up the pass and cutters need to show to help. It will happen as he starts to make reads out of side PnR a feature of the Spurs offense.

I liked that Pops combinations had everyone at their natural positions. I though all guys worked well with each other.

[ceperez]

I watched the sections they played again. On a second look the game was interesting for the Pop experiments. Anderson didn't struggle as much as I remember and he was aggressive, which he needs to be to develop. He just made a couple of mistakes in a row and it was complicated by the Nuggets making a run with a series if consecutive Pnr between Nelson and Jokic. Sad to say Jokic did a number on Boban to finish the game scoring consecutively like4-5 Times in a row. Patty is poor defending PnR and needs a lot if help. Seems like Jokic figured Boban out. Kyle distracted from that bc Pop is really strict on him and Kyle himself git frustrated. Of anyone else in the team, he's really the youngster that is still developing and will have to learn through episodes like that.

But the whole point is that Pop experimented with combining the wings. He had Kawhi/Simmons to start followed by Kyle/Danny. Then he had Kyle/Simmons. All of these with different big men obviously. The whole game Simmons was at SG, Kyle at SF. I think all pairings worked really well for the most part. Kyle's traveling call at the end was questionable. He dribbled and wasn't pivoting. Can't get angry at him being aggressive and making a mistake. His going under a screen on Barton was the egregious mistake, and he dribbled into a trap bc he tried to run the PnR w/ LMA and was indecisive. He needs to speed up the pass and cutters need to show to help. It will happen as he starts to make reads out of side PnR a feature of the Spurs offense.

I liked that Pops combinations had everyone at their natural positions. I though all guys worked well with each other.

KA in general had a good game except for that one play where Pop yanked him out.

[tholdren]

This stagnation has not been new. It's just a product of trash ballin from the streets. Spurs are not immune. 20 pt runs are a regular occurrence as well as being unable to end it. Surprisingly, sa has done a much better job this year pulling away. Still lack an automatic bucket or a pace holder due to the overuse of jumpers

[SAGirl]

Kyle is like Pop's favorite whipping boy. The upside though is that he gets to play. There's also a demand on him to make the difficult play when the clock expires. He got yanked by Pop when he let the clock expire against the Nuggets.

Right now Kyle is getting the Tony Parker treatment... which is a good thing.

The one who's really be treated badly though is Ray McCallum. Think about it, Pop subs him in for Kyle to emphasizes Kyle's mistake. Ray plays for a minute, but never sniffs the court after that. What does this say? It says to Kyle, I'm subbing you with the worst player on the team. To add insult to injury, I'm going to let the worst player in for just 1 minute!

Pop is a perfectionist when it comes to play. What do you think is going through his mind when he sees what LMA is doing on the court? It is driving him nuts and it is spilling out in conversation in public places.

I think Pop has gone crazy with many guys he can't afford to sub out. You see it in Pop's body language. Occasionally he still gets on guys. I have seen him get on Boris and Danny still.

I have been following the Spurs very recently so I have missed Pop's coaching of other young prospects. I even missed Kawhi and Danny's first couple of years and Kawhi reportedly was special from the very beginning, but Danny was not. Cojo wasn't even seen much specially early.

I only caught Baynes' s development and it is not really comparable, bc Baynes was a vet who needed to adjust his game, he was not some youngster with upside being molded and just learning to play in the pros. Reminds me of a less upside Boban, just in the fact that they are older players who need to adapt their games, not youngsters still figuring themselves out.

POP got Ray in the game to talk to Kyle about the shot clock violation. It wasn't even for Ray' s benefit. Now that was concerning, not for Kyle, but for Ray. Pop cares about coaching Kyle, and will be super strict I suspect bc he has upside and it will help him improve. It makes sense if he figures to be in the Spurs rotation in the future as well.

Ray apparently has completely fallen out and us on the opposite spectrum. POP not going at him bc he has no upside and is limited, it would seem. I wonder if he's still in their plans.

[SAGirl]

Bobo may need to be with the starters for (1) better passing (2) better screens (3) additional 3 point threat (4) a post up game. One of either Duncan or Aldridge needs to move to the second unit.

Spurs are missing Tiago's screens and his passing. That's why it is so messed up now with LMA only exerting effort when he's the focus of the offense. LMA needs a change of at ude or he should be given a change of scenery.

#ceperez

Like your sense if humor # ceperez!

[ChumpDumper]

trash ballin from the streets