Spurs v OKC: Tale of the Tape & Series Prediction

[DPG21920]

Only one "we" throughout this entire post and it was used correctly, too. Excellent.

Kane is clapping. Hard.

Intentional my poster

[phxspurfan]

KL will make life very tough on Durant the whole series. This will prove KL to be the superstar he is. He will make this series his coming out party, guaranteed. He will be Jordanesque.

That said, refs will make sure this goes at least 6. Especially in OKC. We will get mauled there like we get mauled in Oakland and like we used to in Staples. Westbrook will go for 40 a couple times. Ibaka won't be as much of a factor as he has been in the past, because we aren't the same team (we're bigger now). Waiters will make some timely baskets and plays. Manu will turn the ball over some.

Spurs in 6 or 7, not sure. If refs dominate, Spurs in 7 since Spurs have HCA.

Also KD has the potential to go into the fetal position mentally in this series. Everyone sees it, he's been showing uncharacteristic signs of that lately. If KL locks hikm down at one end and dominates him at the other (since KD can't defend at all), I can see KD checking out and leaving it all to Westbrook. In that case Spurs in 5.

[EVAY]

Terrific write-up and discussion starter, imo. Thank you for taking the time and thought to do it.

I think that one of the reasons that Westbrook has relatively good scoring (compared to Durant) in playing against us, is that historically our defense focused on Durant, and we were happy to let WB be a high but inefficient scorer. But Westbrook is better than he used to be. I would wonder what it would be like to have KL on WB and Green on Durant. Green is a better defender than he used to be, and I think we may need KL's athleticism and speed against WB. I worry about Green fouling out against WB, but I think KL can keep up with him and increase the turnovers. That will frustrate WB much as it frustrated Lance Stephenson, and getting into WB's head could be a very good thing for us. Green has enough speed to keep up with Durant.

If we start Aldridge and Duncan, when do we use Diaw? And who will match up with Kanter?

[Joseph Kony]

The best part about playing OKC is they are pretty weak at the SG position so the Spurs can hide Parker/Mills on their SGs, although Waiters has had decent games against us it seems like.

I wonder if Boban will see time in this series. He definitely proved he can play vs. Kanter and Adams but the pace will be a lot higher with Durant/Westbrook in the game. The Diaw/West pairing is pretty much unplayable in this series but I have a feeling we're going to see a good amount

[EVAY]

Re: the lack of bench depth at OKC. I agree that Durant and WB will play tons of minutes, and I think that will wear on them by the end of games.

Key will be rebounding, and I don't know how we fix that because they play so much more physical than we do. If refs let them get away with holding our bigs, we will get creamed on rebounding, but if they hold them accountable, we can rebound as well as they can.

[DPG21920]

The best part about playing OKC is they are pretty weak at the SG position so the Spurs can hide Parker/Mills on their SGs, although Waiters has had decent games against us it seems like.

I wonder if Boban will see time in this series. He definitely proved he can play vs. Kanter and Adams but the pace will be a lot higher with Durant/Westbrook in the game. The Diaw/West pairing is pretty much unplayable in this series but I have a feeling we're going to see a good amount

Very true which is why I was thinking SA should not be afraid to crowd/double KD/WB. You aren't scared of Robinson beating you. He may hit some 3's, but you live with that until he proves he can beat you. Their bigs outside of Ibaka/Kanter aren't shooters. Their bench has limited shooters.

Waiters had a 20 point game vs SA in a loss, and yeah, if he does that Spurs will be in tough games, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to do it for 4 games. He's playing better lately, but still not a good player.

Boban may play some, but I don't think it will be a first option. I can see that happening if things aren't working after a couple games though.

[DPG21920]

Re: the lack of bench depth at OKC. I agree that Durant and WB will play tons of minutes, and I think that will wear on them by the end of games.

Key will be rebounding, and I don't know how we fix that because they play so much more physical than we do. If refs let them get away with holding our bigs, we will get creamed on rebounding, but if they hold them accountable, we can rebound as well as they can.

OKC is an elite rebounding team and they should kill the defensively glass. Spurs don't go for them and OKC is good at them. I would not expect anything there, but anything Spurs get is gravy.

However, Spurs are a top 3 defensive rebounding team in the league. While it's definitely a case of "who wins the battle" I don't think OKC will have as much success just because every game now is vs a top defensive rebounding team. In games where SA doesn't take care of the glass, it will be a tougher game. However, they should be able to do a good job at limiting the extra possessions and Spurs rep as a great defensive team should help them with getting calls.

[Spurtacular]

spurs in 5

If they win the opening home games, that's my call (possibly even a sweep). If not, this goes six or seven.

[dabom]

If they win the opening home games, that's my call (possibly even a sweep). If not, this goes six or seven.

No ifs about me. Sweep to me.

[EVAY]

I think it will take 6 games for the Spurs to pull it off. Which means there will be no end of meltdowns on Spurstalk for at least two games of the series.

[SAGirl]

Thanks for the review! It was excellent. I think it does go 5-6 bc our offensive execution hasn't been that clean and we have had a few high TO game. Also the eye test has not been kind to our bigs rebounding against them in the RS. POP may be reluctant to use guys who may help like Boban. It may take a bad game for Pop to make adjustments.

As you say there could be the odd game where execution is lacking and too many TO or lack in defensive rebounding.

X factor??? Hmm probably LMA. Their bigs will be physical and he needs to bring the fight.

[hater]

Spurs in 6

[100%duncan]

Spurs in 5

[hater]

Spurs in 6 (but is SA wins their first two games, then SA in 5.)

prediction

why don't you just add that if Spurs win their first 3 games, it'll be a sweep, Einstein

[urunobili]

I think it goes 7 TBH

[diego]

game 1s are unpredictable, even though i think a sweep has a good chance (more likely 5) I still think its possible to get stunned in a game1, especially against players like WB and durant.

i think you're looking too much into some stats, aldridge for example, he played against okc 3 games, one of them was his fist game as a spur and the worst of his games, the other two in one he played 37 minutes and killed them the other he played 19 and was still better than that first game. between sample size and quality, and considering the context of aldridge's season, i expect him + diaw/duncan/west/boban to clearly win their matchups with okcs' bigs.

The marquee matchup here is kawhi vs durant, in games this season kawhi has basically dominated durant on both ends. I saw most of game thunder mavs gm5 last night, and though it does look like durant is fired up and thirsty to win, I have a feeling its just a matter of time for kawhi will break him.

The important thing with the thunder is 2nd chance points, TO, FTA, limiting their roleplayers involvement. This matchup has changed a lot, but the more i think of it, the more think those changes have all benefited the spurs ability to win the matchup. they have to stay in the moment and take care of business, but it must be said they are clear favorites vs a totally unbalanced roster with a rookie coach. Cant see the spurs losing this series unless durant goes off, and that just doesnt seem at all likely so long as kawhi is available.

[gospursgojas]

X factors- Dion Waiters for OKC and Danny Green for Spurs.

Waiters seems to heat up against the Spurs and goes off when we are doing a good job on WB/Durant.

Green will need to be able to make it tough for one of Durant or Westbrook and hitting open 3's with OKC bigs wanting to pack the paint is vital.

[skulls138]

X factor??? Hmm probably LMA. Their bigs will be physical and he needs to bring the fight.

Damn straight! People concentrate on KD and RW but their bigs are just as much of a worry. They killed us on the glass. TDs going to do all he can, you know that, but LMA needs to bring it with scoring, defense and rebounding, plain and simple.

[Cry Havoc]

Great write-up.

I think the deciding factor this series will actually be how OKC uses their bench. I see them trying to put Kanter on the floor a lot, but they do NOT have a 2nd 5 that can stop Patty AND Manu AND Diaw on offense. The Spurs are going to absolutely tear into that soft second unit that's typically guard heavy and very small, weight wise.

Outside of Ibaka, the Dubs have no answer for any of the Spurs bigs. Clear him out of the lane and let the other guys post up. I could see them sticking Ibaka on LMA and staying home on other bigs. Diaw, Duncan, and West should be able to have their way with anyone else that OKC tries to throw at them.

Great write-up OP. I plan to be doing game grades for every game in the series.

[Cry Havoc]

Damn straight! People concentrate on KD and RW but their bigs are just as much of a worry. They killed us on the glass. TDs going to do all he can, you know that, but LMA needs to bring it with scoring, defense and rebounding, plain and simple.

Pace will slow down. This will make it a lot easier for our guys to get into position. One thing OKC thrives on especially with their bigs rebounding is the chaos created by open court play. But you won't see as much of that in the post-season, so we shouldn't be as concerned about it.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

No ifs about me. Sweep to me.

Refs wont let that happen. Only way I see a sweep is if Green actually shows up to play this series.

[ginobilized]

Great write up!
Coaching is the other factor of this series not being talked about. Billy Donovan is going to get his ass handed to him a few times by Pop, book it.
OKC already has execution issues, rookie NBA coach in the 2nd round for the first time vs. HOF Pop with the most balanced roster of his career. OKC could be in trouble.

Spurs in 5

[GSH]

First of all, nice write-up, and thanks for taking the time.

I'll chime in with what I think will be keys:

All season, when OKC gets to the fourth quarter, it's the Westbrook-Durant Show. And it's not even a two-man game... it's two one-man games. It's their strength when it works, and it's their downfall when those two can't get it done. I don't think that's going to change to any great degree. To me, that says that that Key #1 to this series is Kawhi/Danny defense in the fourth quarters. It will be up to those two guys to make sure that The Westbrook-Durant show doesn't win fourth quarters. It will be up to Pop to make sure those two guys are fresh, late in the game.

The next biggest issue is that OKC has two big men who scored right at 1,000 points each in the regular season. Ibaka was a workhorse, and played 2,500 minutes. But Kanter's numbers are actually MUCH better, on a Per-36 minute basis. In fact, Kanter's regular season Per-36 Points and Rebounds are more than 50% higher than Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 minutes are three times Ibaka's. In the playoffs, Kanter's Points and RB's Per-36 are almost double Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 are over 6X Ibaka's. Yikes! Key#2 - frustrate Penes Kanter. Drive on him and draw fouls (he commits a LOT of fouls). Deny him the ball. Pay attention to boxing him out on the boards.

The third key is assists. The Spurs dish out more AST's per game than OKC, but every player on the team contributes. Parker leads the team, with 19% of their total AST's for the season. Second is Patty, with 11% of the Spurs' total assists. But... on the OKC side, Westbrook accounts for 44% of his team's total assists. In a 7-game series, Westbrook isn't going to beat you by himself. Key #3 - Force Westbrook to be a shooter, rather than let him make his teammates better. Westbrook playing Hero Ball will doom the team. The good news is, he loves playing Hero Ball.

[GSH]

game 1s are unpredictable, even though i think a sweep has a good chance (more likely 5) I still think its possible to get stunned in a game1, especially against players like WB and durant.

Game 1 is my biggest worry. If the Spurs come out with maximum intensity, and put away Game 1, the rest will be dominos falling. Maybe not a sweep, but clockwork. But OKC is going to come out playing smash-mouth ball, and Westbrook will be running every miss back down their throats. If the Spurs aren't prepared for that, he can start an avalanche. Losing Game 1 will make it a 7-game series, IMO.

[TheDoctor]

Nice write up!

IMO Spurs in 5. I'm more confident this time around than I was in 2014 for sure. My reasons:

MVPs:
Last time OKC had (in theory) the best player on the court. Now not so much. Neither Durant or Westbrook are gonna be better than Kawhi in this Series. Spurs wings matchup very well with those two and as with Miami, there's something about OKC that Kawhi loves to up his game.

Spurs Killers:
They no longer have Spurs Killer Jackson. This time, they got Dion Waiters instead. A very inefficient player that likes to think he's better than he really is, which can be as dangerous as disastrous, but hasn't reached those Reggie's "I'm gonna the Spurs" levels yet.

Health:
Tony is in much better health this time and the Spurs are no longer so dependent of his production. Both variables a plus. Although we can say the same about Ibaka, he's much older. As I said in this other --> thread, Ibaka is no longer in his ultimate prime years. He's way older than his stated age of 26 y/o. I say he's at least 32 y/o. Since 2014 (supposedly 24 y/o) Ibaka has regressed considerably in points, rebounds, true-shooting, BPM, blocks, PER and win-shares while playing basically the same minutes. This age fiasco is all speculation on my part but a solid one as African players have a tendency (sometimes on purpose, sometimes is just life) to hide their true age.

Bigs:
No longer we have a nice but brittle defensively minded Center in Tiago, but a much more durable, agile, offensively minded and not-so-slouch-in-defense-after-all PF in LaMarcus Aldridge. As bunch of you already said, the only big I'm worried about is Kanter and his offensive boards domination. He can easily be their X-Factor. The good thing is that he's still a liability on defense which could be a tailor-made matchup for the GOAT.

Coaches:
Really?