The only poll that deplorables like Dirk care to cite is the LA Times one which draws it's sample from the same pool of voters. If you read Drudge and Breitbart, they're all but declaring a Trump victory. 4 years ago it was "Romney in a landslide". The conservative entertainment complex is once again doing its best to construct an alternate reality that the goobers are swallowing hook, line and sinker.
Post #18 showing a single digit Hispanic margin is the most delusional fantasy by far. In reality, Trump will lose Hispanics by 40 points or so. It's gonna be fun reading the excuses and whining on Nov 9.
While Silver's model isn't completely transparent, he's pretty elaborate on why it is much less bullish on Clinton.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...hers-on-trump/
The most persuasive argument, to me at least, is that there are still 13% claiming 3rd party/undecided whereas 4 years ago that number was 3%
Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers
CBS/YouGov Poll,
Among Those Who Plan Voting On Election Day:
Ohio:
Trump 49 (+8)
Clinton 41
Florida:
Trump 51 (+16)
Clinton 35
a single internet poll?
Meanwhile, the Senate forecast is now 50/50 on 538.
Nate Silver is melting down.
Nevada is already a done deal for the dems.
Florida also looks good if you go by Early voting. This hasn't been a good election cycle for him.
Funny how Reck suddenly, after weeks of trumpeting 538 results doesn't believe Silver when he doesn't agree with Recks preconceptions.
Did I say I didn't believe him, you ?
He is overreacting..which happens. Doesn't mean I still dont think he's the best at this stuff.
I'm seeing how things are shaping up in Nevada and Florida real time. In Nevada the dems have something like 70k vote lead as of Friday
In Nevada, Latino turnout propelled Democrats in Clark County — the population center that's home to Las Vegas — to a record-breaking close on Friday, driving up the Democratic lead in early ballots cast to 72,000. That's enough, according to veteran Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston, to essentially tie a bow on the state for Clinton.
Four years earlier, when President Barack Obama won the state by 7 points, Democrats led Clark County in ballots cast by 71,000 at the end of early voting in 2012.
You can do the math. If dems already lead in Nevada by 72k and back in 2012 Obama won there early voting by 71k. What does that tell you?
In Florida, hispanic voting turnout is at 100% and the dems have taken a slim lead there as of yesterday.
This isn't factored in on his model.
Trump Limps Toward Defeat As GOP Pollsters Say Hillary Clinton Will Get At Least 304 EVs
Even Republican pollsters are projecting that Hillary Clinton will win well above the needed 270 electoral college votes to win the White House.
The Republican pollsters all seem to think that Hillary Clinton is going to win Florida.
Only one of the three pollsters Harwood spoke to believed that she would lose NC.
My own Politicus Presidential projection map aligns more with the latter two Republican pollsters.
I think
Clinton is going to finish with either 322 or 323 electoral college votes
as the most likely outcome.
Harwood also tweeted that Clinton may be in the process of tipping Ohio:
If Hillary Clinton wins Ohio, the rout is on.
The fact that Republican pollsters aren’t disputing the likely outcome of the presidential election speaks volumes about the presidential race.
The Clinton campaign has done an amazing job with early voting and may have locked down victories in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina before election day.Hillary Clinton is almost to the finish line.
It is up to Democratic voters to come out on Tuesday to help her win the race.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/...iticus+USA+%29
NBC-Wall Street Journal poll has Clinton leading Trump by four points
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...litics+News%29
Three Poll Averages, Three Slightly Different Forecasts
Pollster model shows a very steady race, with just a little tightening but no real trend for either candidate. (aka "stability")
Upshot and 538 both show significant tightening, but with Hillary Clinton still in a solid lead with only 48 hours to go.
Who's right? We'll probably never know.
If Clinton wins by, say, four points, all three will most likely be able to say they were within a point of the final number.
On the other hand, if Clinton wins by six points, then Pollster was clearly closer than the other two.
If she wins by one point, then the Upshot was closest.
Exciting, isn't it?
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/11/three-poll-averages-three-slightly-different-forecasts
Last edited by boutons_deux; 11-06-2016 at 02:22 PM.
Why FiveThirtyEight’s Prediction Model May Be Inflating Trump’s Chances
the wild swings toward Trump are more a sign that an orange-furred monkey wrench has jammed FiveThirtyEight's soothsaying machine than a candidate who is detested by nearly 60 percent of voters is suddenly floating to the top of the 2016 show.
Trump can win and possible hacking of the electoral process increase unpredictability, but his path is still precarious and
not one other professional election handicapper records the seismic shift in Trump's chances that FiveThirtyEight does.
To Silver's credit, he's cast doubts on his poll-based forecasting this year.
it's likely Comey's ill-advised letter about Clinton's emails has depressed pro-Clinton respondents in polling more than it will at the voting booth.
it's worth keeping in mind reasons why a Clinton victory is likelier than Silver's model predicts.
http://www.nationalmemo.com/why-fivethirtyeights-prediction-model-may-be-inflating-trumps-chances/
^LOL both avoiding my response post.
I think he's the best at what he does but let me explain how he's wrong. Lol
On Tuesday I will be bumping these posts. See you then.
Hillary Clinton Holds The Lead In Final Polls As Undecided Voters Don’t Go For Trump
Both the NBC/WSJ and Politico/Morning Consult final national polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by at least 3 points.
The worse news for Trump is that undecided voters are not breaking his direction.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/...iticus+USA+%29
She is one state away from lossing
Comey just came out and cleared Clinton...
It's breaking news, just announced.
Sorry but just because he adjusts for bias and similar tactics doesn't mean it is not done empirically. That is the entire point of normalizations and similar techniques. Basically what you are doing here is a similar argument that climate deniers use in "we don't know what's in the model and they adjust the numbers." It's garbage to wishcast through incredulity.
I think the issue is that the drivers are different specifically Trump in how people are choosing to vote which is the base mechanic in all of this. The alt right now has a franchise and similarly latin americans have a real reason to vote. That plus the end of the boomer hegemony and you have what you have.
And is up by 10 or so in each of them. Meanwhile NC, NV, etc are more or less coinflips that you are counting on.
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